Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method

Quote

Disliked

If we take in consideration user entry Alligator and pSAR settings and pSAR crosses in the same direction as Alligator is trending what is the probability that price will:

- hit SL (1R= X * ATR value) before hitting TP 2R
- hit TP 2R before SL
- hit TP 3R before SL
- hit TP 4R before SL
- hit TP 5R before SL...

Quote

Disliked

ok my question is,

Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken.

Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation.

Thanks

Quote

Disliked

Here is my attempt
If price moved from current daily open price already 50% ADR(of 20 days for example), what are the probabilities it will continue to 75% ADR?
Please make in the tool the number of days for ADR calculation to be an input parameter so you can choose for example ADR(21 days) or ADR(31 days) etc....
The output of the tool should state also the number of samples used to calculate the probabilities.
for example:
37,9% (out of 10000 days)
that means over 10000 days where price reached from daily open 50% ADR(20) the likihood of price moving further from 50% ADR(20) to 75% ADR(20) are 37,9%

Quote

Disliked

ProbabilityDay_v6 Indicator is created
- MinTreshold and MaxTresholds and DaysToAverage as inputs.
- It will check all available data days you have in your chart automatically.
- We have found Average by looking past 5 days from each current candles Day
- Example if Average 300 Pips, If current day price moved 30 pips its counted as %10.
- MinTreshold 0.10 represents %10 same for MaxTreshold Input
- The Rule was simple. Candle have to close above MinTreshold and Below MaxTreshold. So if we input 0.10 and 0.30 we are asking. What is the probability
Once candle is closed above 0.10 and below 0.30 that it will reach to 0.30 within same day for the same direction. So THE OPP probability represents if candle closed above 0.10 and dropped below on next candles without reaching Target. If Target Reached within same day it is counted. Screenshot example is below :

Quoting Quants

Disliked

This thread is contuniation of the previous thread i created in platform tech. Due to thread name some requests been out of our purpose. So i had to create new thread. Explaining : You can request an idea which can return as probability. Every week i will code one winner in the Poll. This thread not to create your strategy or indicator. This Thread only to find probabilities !!! If you ask me to code an EA for you or INDICATOR you will be BANNED From the thread and ignored .. If you ask a question such as what is the probability of candle to close...

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} Sorry but i still dont understand fully (and we are not friday ) I see the min treshold but the max where ? Whats the tresholdcounter (steps?) And why if you can choose how many days to look it is going to check all the available days {image}

Ignored

Quoting Quants

Disliked

{quote} The input inside of the indicator for the average. If 5. You find 5 days average movement... But probability is found by all history available. Ie if you have 100 days available it will check all 100 days. You have to grab the idea first. The idea is simple. You want to find the probability of continuation and reversal after %x move happens. So you have 5 days average = 300 pip. Once %10 move happens on new day =30 pip. What is the probability it will go another %10... So at the end min treshold is the value whee the look is started.

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} Thanks and treshold counter ?

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} Thanks and treshold counter ?

Ignored

Quoting Quants

Disliked

This is my last example of how powerful is this idea. %40 Min Treshold. %45 Max Treshold You have %86 of the time when candle closes above %40 Before touching the %45 it went below of %40... So... That is pretty accurate. At the end of the day you allso know it will touch %45 with high probability. So in this screenshot here its go. {image}

Ignored

Quoting vijiragavan

Disliked

can you do probabiity anaysis for pivot point indicator. like what are the probability if price opens above pivot point and touching res1,res2 and res 3. also what are the probability if price opens below pivot point and touching sup1,sup2 and sup3.... also can you do statistics for reversal from those pivot levels... thanks for sharing this indicator. it looks interesting and useful.

Ignored

Quoting Quants

Disliked

This is just nice. 0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens. It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day. This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate. This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it {image}

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} Hi Quants, Your sell order would have been earlier ? (in function of what you said further ''This approach counts for the first Touch of the min and max tresholds of the day'' ) Best

Ignored

Quoting Quants

Disliked

{quote} No, Sell is where it is. We are not counting the bars that been spiked without closing in between treshold. Ie if you input 0.40 to 0.50.. And if there was no bar closed above 0.40 and below 0.50... Means it must be spiked directly from 0.39 or below to 0.50+ So that is not counted. That is not counted as a touch as well. We wait for candle close. So if prev bar was 0.20 and next bar is 0.55 we never been in treshold area to count the touch..

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} I was meaning this {image}

Ignored

Quoting Quants

Disliked

{quote} Ah yes , You are right with that one Touch happener earlier.

Ignored

Quoting rosalieone

Disliked

{quote} Ok . And the stats are valid for the current day ?

Ignored