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  • #37,341
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:13pm Jun 3, 2020 7:13pm
Hi guys
Clearly MM put the squeeze on AUD
Should drop significantly soon. 66 where I am looking. EU should collapse after ECB.There is no fundamental reason for it gain further on USD.
regards to all Pivoters
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #37,343
  • Jun 4, 2020 9:53pm Jun 4, 2020 9:53pm
all eyes are on US job data Tomorrow
hopes is for an economic recovery and for the us dollar Keep seeing as safe-haven
holding EU and AU short position against me
  • #37,344
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:48am Jun 5, 2020 1:48am
Quoting ppxdf
all eyes are on US job data Tomorrow hopes is for an economic recovery and for the us dollar Keep seeing as safe-haven holding EU and AU short position against me
Back to square one for me.

Took partial losses on AC, AU, EU short.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #37,345
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:25am Jun 5, 2020 8:25am
Can someone please offer some Fundamental insight as to the behavior after USD and CAD unemployment claims this morning, have been trying to get a better grasp of the fundamental side but it doesn't make sense to me in this current market.

So extremely good news for both USD and CAD, both expected big negative jobs and got big plus numbers instead (USD +2509K expected -7750K and CAD +289.6K expected -500.0K), both also had a drop in unemployment although for both the USD figures were substantially better than the CAD ones.

So lets look at E/C, substantial drop South over 100pips
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But E/U only 50 pips drop, and the USD news was substantially better for both unemployment rate and employment change ... but it only had half the impact?
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Any insights? All I can think is the majors move less than the minors but such huge news on USD should have had more effect right? I mean A/U didn't even budge despite USD great news ...
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  • #37,346
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:54am Jun 5, 2020 8:54am
Decided not to touch majors today. EG looked more interesting. Moved higher yesterday and stayed up, didn't move higher on Asia. Clear sign for lack of interest of higher prices. Shorted after 1st rejection from PP. Price tried to go up 2 more times but didn't manage.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,347
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:35am Jun 5, 2020 9:35am
Quoting Nostromo
Can someone please offer some Fundamental insight as to the behavior after USD and CAD unemployment claims this morning, have been trying to get a better grasp of the fundamental side but it doesn't make sense to me in this current market. So extremely good news for both USD and CAD, both expected big negative jobs and got big plus numbers instead (USD +2509K expected -7750K and CAD +289.6K expected -500.0K), both also had a drop in unemployment although for both the USD figures were substantially better than the CAD ones. So lets look at E/C, substantial...
Yes, fundamentally NFP is the biggest mover of the month for the USD and would theoretically moved EU south at least 100 pips. Some strengthening started in euro session withe EU, although I think it was more profit taking before NFP. The factors I see are more driven by sentiment since the US has nationwide angst and civil unrest. Things are starting to look up economically with covid-19 but there is so much uncertainty politically and socially, is is throwing off a more positive USD gain. Overall uncertainty for the USD. Not following any 'rules' we are used to. Crosses are more stable. Just my opinion.
  • #37,348
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:21am Jun 5, 2020 10:21am
Quoting Nostromo
Can someone please offer some Fundamental insight as to the behavior after USD and CAD unemployment claims this morning, have been trying to get a better grasp of the fundamental side but it doesn't make sense to me in this current market. So extremely good news for both USD and CAD, both expected big negative jobs and got big plus numbers instead (USD +2509K expected -7750K and CAD +289.6K expected -500.0K), both also had a drop in unemployment although for both the USD figures were substantially better than the CAD ones. So lets look at E/C, substantial...
I've been taken by surprise as well.

Red news for USD and CAD far better than expected nevertheless dollar loosing against pound and aussie to name a couple.
Besides there has been OPEC+ agreement with oil up and AC went down but not so much.

The only reason I can find is that AUD and NZD are much less affected by Covid-19, however it's hard to find reason for GBP up move with rumors of hard brexit becoming stronger every day.

Last but not least the mistery of EUR, other 600 bn (e.g. more of QE) and price up.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #37,349
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:59am Jun 5, 2020 11:59am
Quoting bubincka
{quote} I've been taken by surprise as well. Red news for USD and CAD far better than expected nevertheless dollar loosing against pound and aussie to name a couple. Besides there has been OPEC+ agreement with oil up and AC went down but not so much. The only reason I can find is that AUD and NZD are much less affected by Covid-19, however it's hard to find reason for GBP up move with rumors of hard brexit becoming stronger every day. Last but not least the mistery of EUR, other 600 bn (e.g. more of QE) and price up.
Precisely if market want sell in better price its the moment to push up price step by step...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #37,350
  • Jun 5, 2020 2:15pm Jun 5, 2020 2:15pm
first i see this . maybe more. your pivot is perfect if you know how to trade them . thanks
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  • #37,351
  • Jun 5, 2020 3:53pm Jun 5, 2020 3:53pm
Quoting rupasi
{quote} Yes, fundamentally NFP is the biggest mover of the month for the USD and would theoretically moved EU south at least 100 pips. Some strengthening started in euro session withe EU, although I think it was more profit taking before NFP. The factors I see are more driven by sentiment since the US has nationwide angst and civil unrest. Things are starting to look up economically with covid-19 but there is so much uncertainty politically and socially, is is throwing off a more positive USD gain. Overall uncertainty for the USD. Not following...
I expected a stronger drop in my EU and AU short.
I don't Took partial losses on AU, EU short., Stretching my stop from 100 to 200 pips. maybe a mistake !!
i still have 100 pips against me.
i need adjust it now
I am not sure the labor market recovery is sustainable, when I see AU holding that level.
we'll see next week.
I agree your opinion. Overall uncertainty for the USD. Not following any 'rules' we are used to.
  • #37,352
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:57am Jun 6, 2020 7:57am
Hi guys
We got very important event weds on Feds policy rate.Main reason why EU AU and other majors did not fall as much as they should of had Friday. Market makers waiting for the outcome.Should rate confirm the same and some bullish sentiment from Feds after all the NFP beat any expectation by wide margin USD may regain strength and her peers may start more deeper correction.
Not ruling out short squeeze by MM before Weds.AU may reach tops 71 but that's obviously too high considering Aussie is already on crack and withdrawals are coming.
stay safe
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #37,353
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:59am Jun 6, 2020 7:59am
Quoting Nostromo
Can someone please offer some Fundamental insight as to the behavior after USD and CAD unemployment claims this morning, have been trying to get a better grasp of the fundamental side but it doesn't make sense to me in this current market. So extremely good news for both USD and CAD, both expected big negative jobs and got big plus numbers instead (USD +2509K expected -7750K and CAD +289.6K expected -500.0K), both also had a drop in unemployment although for both the USD figures were substantially better than the CAD ones. So lets look at E/C, substantial...
See my post above why.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #37,354
  • Jun 6, 2020 3:45pm Jun 6, 2020 3:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} See my post above why. regards
Thanks for the feedback Davit!
  • #37,355
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:21am Jun 8, 2020 5:21am
Morning everyone, EJ short for me, i see a lot of space, i will wait until 122.520 where we got the Weekly pivot after i will move SL in profit zone. Talking about TP currently aiming for the S61.
I'll keep you update ! Take care have nice day.
Don't be delicated, be vast and brilliant ! [Brent Smith]
  • #37,356
  • Edited 7:18am Jun 8, 2020 5:52am | Edited 7:18am
EG long for me from DO. Trying to close some at PP.
Lagarde later today.

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Added some

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  • #37,357
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:44am Jun 8, 2020 8:44am
"untitled"
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #37,358
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:07am Jun 8, 2020 9:07am
Quoting 1pipperhour
EG long for me from DO. Trying to close some at PP. Lagarde later today. {image} Added some {image}
Uhm don't seems a good idea stay long but this is only my opinion, since today the price was unable to pierce or reach the Weekly pivot as you can see, this is h4 chart.

Regards

H.
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Don't be delicated, be vast and brilliant ! [Brent Smith]
  • #37,359
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:39am Jun 8, 2020 9:39am
Quoting Hyperfire
{quote} Uhm don't seems a good idea stay long but this is only my opinion, since today the price was unable to pierce or reach the Weekly pivot as you can see, this is h4 chart. Regards H. {image}
I'm out of it anyway on the second push when price stalled again and before Lagarde.

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  • #37,360
  • Jun 8, 2020 10:07am Jun 8, 2020 10:07am
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} I'm out of it anyway on the second push when price stalled again and before Lagarde. {image}
Hello, good choice !

EJ still running, looking good i will let run, as said i will cover sooner moving SL in profit zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be delicated, be vast and brilliant ! [Brent Smith]
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