Institutional trade recommendations

Credit Suisse discusses its near-term bias on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP.
"we can now see EURUSD push beyond its 200-day MA at 1.1012 and make a run towards our new near-term target of 1.1200. We continue to target GBPUSD 1.20 medium term and have also shifted our EURGBP target up to 0.93, in light of an improved tone to intraEuropean debt mutualisation discussions," CS adds.

Credit Suisse discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and highlights the importance of the 0.6706 level for near-term direction.
"AUDUSD saw another concerted effort to break above the pivotal resistance zone composed of the 200-day average, the March high and 78.6% retracement at 6706. Although further consolidation should still be allowed for, in particular as a small bull ‘triangle’ is still in place, we still look for this level to cap and look for weakness to take over again in due course. With this in mind, we see support initially at .6568, then .6538, ahead of the late May lows and 21-day exponential average at .6520/06, where we would expect to see fresh buying at first. Beneath here on a closing basis would negate the bull ‘triangle’ and reinforce the swing lower, with next support at .6412/00," CS notes.
"A closing break above .6706 would in contrast mark a break of a major barrier and turn the medium-term risks to the upside, with resistance thereafter at .6745/50, ahead of the February high at .6774," CS adds.

Danske Research likes long EUR/GBP in the near-term and prefers to express that via an options structure.
"Near term, we expect a repricing of the Brexit risk premium ahead of the 1 July deadline to send EUR/GBP higher again. We believe this will mirror similar events in late 2018 and summer 2019, when no deal Brexit fears were increasing. The fourth negotiation round is set to begin on 1 June. We do not expect any major breakthrough, as the two sides remain too far from each other. We think the cross could move as high as 0.92 near term," Danske notes.

Citi adopts a bullish bias on EUR/USD in the near-term.
"Our FX Technicals team has shown that similar setups historically have resulted in large USDCNH moves lower. As for EURUSD, the recent close above 1.1060 leaves the door open for a potential two big figure move upwards," Citi adds.

MUFG Research adopts a constructive bias on EUR/USD in the near-term.
"we expect the EUR to continue trading on a firmer footing in the near-term. EUR/USD appears set to test the top of the 1.0800 to 1.1200 trading range. However, it may still be premature to turn outright USD bearish," MUFG adds.

Credit Suisse abandons its bearish EUR/JPY bias and no longer targets the cross at 112 over the coming weeks.
"As for our risk aversion trades in G10, short EURJPY is unlikely to perform while equity markets stay resilient but more importantly if the longer-term risk premium required for EUR declines," CS notes.
"But we are still reluctant to shift our USDJPY 105 medium-term target given the lack of yield support the greenback now has relative to the JPY and the cheapness of hedging USD exposure for Japanese investors. This means we now target EURJPY 117.60, up for 112.00 previously," CS adds.

CIBC Research adopts a cautious bias on AUD around current levels. CIBC targets AUD/USD around 0.65 in Q3.

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. BofA holds a short EUR/USD targeting a move towards 1.05.

Credit Agricole Research maintains a structural bearish bias on CHF, expressing that via holding a long EUR/CHF position targeting a move towards 1.15.

Credit Suisse discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and flags a scope for a retest of key resistance at 1.2643/71.
"GBPUSD has seen another strong push higher following the break above its downtrend from early March, helped by the weakening USD, with strength having extended to the 78.6% retracement of the April/May fall at 1.2522. Whilst this should be allowed to cap at first for a pullback, the risk stays seen higher for a break in due course for a fresh challenge on what remains seen as more significant resistance from the April highs and 200-day average at 1.2643/48 and 1.2671 respectively. We would again expect significant sellers to show here," CS notes.
"A close above 1.2671 though would instead suggest we are seeing a more significant turn higher, with resistance seen next at 1.2711 – the 78.6% retracement of the March collapse. Support for a pullback is seen at 1.2457 initially, then 1.2426, with 1.2375 now ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. A break can see a deeper retracement lower to 1.2330/22, but with better buyers expected ahead of here," CS adds.

TD Research flags its key trading opportunities in the month of June.
"Lockdown exits have priced in too much optimism versus economic realities. Staggered US reopenings should intensify political pressures while the rhetoric between the US and China ratchets upward. European developments reduce the EUR's medium-term tail risks but create headaches for GBP, which has a twin deficit and Brexit problem," TD notes.
"We maintain a defensive posture, remaining long USD, JPY versus GBP, EUR...NOK remains attractive on positioning and valuation, favoring topside against GBP and SEK. AUD still remains vulnerable in the short-run, suggesting short-term tops in AUDCAD and AUDNZD," TD adds.

ANZ Research maintains a structural bearish bias on NZD through year-end.
"Our AUD/NZD forecast reflects this. We have lifted it to reflect the sustained weakness in the NZD leg, stemming from a relatively lower rate structure. Against the USD and JPY, however, we think the risk environment is the predominant driver. We are cautious on the global recovery and see rising risks from geopolitical tension as a potential downside catalyst to the market view. This is reflected in our NZD/USD forecast path to 0.55 by year-end," ANZ adds.

MUFG Research maintains a long EUR/AUD position targeting a move towards 1.67 with a stop at 1.5950.

"EURUSD expects continued USD weakness to take us to 1.1500 in the short term," Citi

Danske Research sees a scope for EUR/USD to extend gains towards 1.15 over the coming weeks.

UOB Research discusses EUR/USD technical outlook and maintains a bullish bias in the near-term against a move back below 1.1270."We first highlighted the 1.1390 level last Friday (05 Jun, spot at 1.1335)) wherein we indicated that if EUR can move clearly above this level, it would greatly increase the odds for a move to the March’s high near 1.1495."

Credit Suisse discusses EUR/JPY technical outlook and sees a scope for a rally back towards 125 after consolidation in the near-term.
"Post the current admittedly sharp setback we thus look for the bull trend to resume with resistance seen next at 125.13/23 – the back of the broken uptrend from 2012 – then the 50% retracement of the 2018/2020 bull trend at 125.94. Whilst we think this can cap at first, we look for a break in due course with resistance next at 127.52, then the 61.8% retracement at 128.67. Big picture though, the “measured base objective” is seen set significantly higher at 133.75," CS notes.
"Weakness should now ideally not extend back below 120.60," CS adds.

"CitiFX Strategy is tactically bullish EURUSD despite the rejection of 1.1400 overnight," Citi notes.

SEB Research discusses its views on GBP and JPY. SEB targets USD/JPY at 111 and GBP/USD at 1.30 in 6 months.

Credit Suisse Research discusses the USD outlook and maintains a sell-on-rallies bias over the coming weeks.
"In the medium term, we stick with our negative USD stance. The bottom line is that, although we expect to see tough resistance to come through at key levels such as AUDUSD 0.70, EURUSD 1.14 and below 1200 in BBDXY, it seems too early to throw the towel in on our pro-risk, pro-cyclical set of trading views quite yet, and we remain committed to a “sell USD rallies” views, even if we are not going to formally extend our forecasts at this point as we normally do," CS notes.
"We accept that the risk-return profile is much less appealing than it was 3 or 4 weeks ago. But the argument for a wholesale trend change has not quite come through for us. And in recognition of the fact that a key aspect of this view is the idea of a persistently dovish Fed, we retain our longer-term USDJPY 105 target despite the risk-on view we have in general," CS adds.