Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 171 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #3,401
  • May 21, 2020 2:44pm May 21, 2020 2:44pm
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  • #3,402
  • May 21, 2020 2:51pm May 21, 2020 2:51pm
Various FLD's of different period allow you to assess the Long Term trend of MICROSOFT
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  • #3,403
  • May 21, 2020 3:10pm May 21, 2020 3:10pm
various previous posts about FLD's

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12789090

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12787015

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12785305

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post12785367

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12783845

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12785215

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12785289
  • #3,404
  • May 21, 2020 3:26pm May 21, 2020 3:26pm
Summary of the General Methodology : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12781538


FLD Pause Zone :

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12783732

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12783825

FLD Cascade :

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12781038

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12781061

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12781081

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12781100

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12781134

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12781145
  • #3,405
  • May 21, 2020 5:29pm May 21, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Swede , I always link the Theory and its Practical use in the real world of Trading. The Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) is NOT the projection in the Future of a Moving Average - Centered Movinga Average or Simple Moving Average. The Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) is the projection in the Future of present Price of 1/2 of the FLD period. To be efficient the FLD Period has to be corresponding to an existing vibration / frequency within Price Action (or at least very close of it) - otherwise you go nowhere. This is why I use basically the...
Great information...needs more study for me....I just got lucky using my version this morning and if you look at the post I have edited to the closing of all the positions ...and have reset to 8-32, I notice Dave uses 8-16 setting which is half...not sure how I tie this all in....but thanks for all the detail...im beginning to see the reasons...
  • #3,406
  • May 21, 2020 5:41pm May 21, 2020 5:41pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} Great information...needs more study for me....I just got lucky using my version this morning and if you look at the post I have edited to the closing of all the positions ...and have reset to 8-32, I notice Dave uses 8-16 setting which is half...not sure how I tie this all in....but thanks for all the detail...im beginning to see the reasons...
Swede to be honest I do not strictly use FLD as the theory.

I follow the advice of a great Hurst follower named Airedale88, unfortunately deceased in 2008.

His advice was to use the projection of a Centered Moving Average 3 Units as a FLD basis to smooth the price curve.

Hence for a FLD 16, 32 and 64 I use a Centered Moing Average 3 offsetted 8, 16 or 32 Time units forward

For FLD 128 and 256 I use a Centered Moing Average 6 offsetted 64, and 128 Time units forward
  • #3,407
  • May 21, 2020 5:47pm May 21, 2020 5:47pm
Example FLD 16 - Price offsetted 8 Time Units forward
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  • #3,408
  • May 21, 2020 5:48pm May 21, 2020 5:48pm
Example FLD 16 - Centered Moving Average 3 offsetted 8 Time Units forward
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  • #3,409
  • Edited 6:36pm May 21, 2020 5:53pm | Edited 6:36pm
Example FLD 256 - Price offsetted 128 Time Units forward
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  • #3,410
  • May 21, 2020 5:56pm May 21, 2020 5:56pm
Example FLD 256 - Centered Moving Average 6 offsetted 128 Time Units forward
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  • #3,411
  • May 21, 2020 6:00pm May 21, 2020 6:00pm
Having been "ignored" by Laura T on her thread " Roadmap" I post here the culprit :

Quoting LauraT
{quote} As much as I'm a supporter of feeding our brains, I'd rather we kept to the topic in hand and left harmonics for their own threads/discussions. Thank you.

"harmonics" are closely related to Moving Averages - even SMA

a Moving Average is a "filter" which eliminates its "harmonic" - in your case a 200 period (if it really exists within Price Action

The time span of the Moving Average used (in your case 200) alters its chracteristics.

These alterations in characteristics can be be completely quantified and predicted.

a) A moving Average of any given time span exactly reduces the magnitude of fluctuations of duration equal to that time (here 200) to ZERO.

b) the same Moving Average also greatly reduces (but does not necessarily eliminate) the magnitude of all fluctuations of duration less than the time span of the Moving Average (in your case 200)

c) All fluctuations of greater than the time span of the average "come through"or are also present in the resulting moving average line.

Those with durations just a little greater than the span of the average are greatly reduced in magnitude duration, but this effect lessens as periodicity increases.

Very long duration periodicities come through nearly unscathed
  • #3,412
  • May 22, 2020 12:07pm May 22, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting OAPDave
Your FLDs hit the jackpot again today ps (Of course I cannot resist ) {image} {image} {image}
Dave let's go on "Gann Grid" !

First there is no "Gann Grid" !

Nowhere in the writings of Gann publicly available on the net you will find some charts showing a "Gann Grid" or something close to it.

Gann has mainly developed and publicized 2 Tools :

- The Angles to measure Speed and Acceleration of Price relatively to Time

- the "Squares" of 9, 12, 52, 144 etc with various graphical representation : Spiral, Octagon, Hexagon etc

Can we say that what many guys call a Gann Grid is a Grid coming from Gann . I am dubious.

The thing I know is that what I have seen also under the name of "Gann Lines " was publicized and vulgarized by T.H. Murrey under the name of Murrey Math, hence the MML's , Murrey Math Lines.

Murrey had some followers who detailed the why of the Lines and explained the methodology.

The basic work are the Notes of Tim Kruzel which are the matrix of all papers on the subject and of of all the related EA's on MT4 and similar indicators on other trading softwares.
  • #3,413
  • Edited 1:31pm May 22, 2020 12:18pm | Edited 1:31pm
Be careful do not hurt my feelings, spent 3,125 hrs learning Murrey but at last financial year I was 3.125 million up
  • #3,414
  • May 22, 2020 12:32pm May 22, 2020 12:32pm
Quoting OAPDave
Be careful do not hurt my feelings, spent 10,000 hrs learning Murrey but at last count I am 3.5 million up
It was said that Murrey found the "Gann Lines / Grid" in the papers of Gann after his death.

Bonnie Hill wrote that he saw Gann / Murrey Charts years before the death of Gann. And that year after year there was less and less Gann influence in the Gann Grid which turned progressively into Murrey Math Lines (MML's)

It is interesting to understand and take into account this historical background to know where the applied concept to trading come from.
  • #3,415
  • Edited May 23, 2020 8:28am May 22, 2020 12:41pm | Edited May 23, 2020 8:28am
I personnally have now more than 20 years of experience with "Gann Grids" , Gann Lines Murrey Math lines or whatever you name it applied to market analysis and trading.

IMHO my experience is that most guys start at the wrong point, at the end of the methodology.

Guys focus mainly on the HOW : How to build "Gann" Angles or " Murrey Math" Lines - that is the same methodology : " Lines" are just Diagonal or Horizontal.

Hence they discover that these lines are not "stable" in time , they change position with Price fluctuations and Market change.

We will try to solve the key questions generated by the methodology, to explain its structure and its limits
  • #3,416
  • Edited 2:04pm May 22, 2020 12:59pm | Edited 2:04pm
Here on this thread we make serious work : we check the facts and do not rely only on reputation and oui-dire.

Let us check some Gann publication

Hereunder the New stock Trend Detector (1936) - 6 Charts - 96 pages

No "Gann Grid" is used in 1936
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  • #3,417
  • May 22, 2020 1:16pm May 22, 2020 1:16pm
Just going to jump in and just say
Murrey = pi =3.125 !!!
  • #3,418
  • Edited 6:05pm May 22, 2020 1:56pm | Edited 6:05pm
Hereunder the New stock Trend Detector (1949) - 13 Charts - 148 pages

No "Gann Grid" is used in 1949 in a Gann Book

Notice that 6 years before his death Gann did not posted a Chart with Gann Grid / Lines in his last book.
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  • #3,419
  • Edited 6:04pm May 22, 2020 2:50pm | Edited 6:04pm
Hereunder the Rare Writings of W.D. Gann published by Cowan - 13 Charts - 194 pages

No "Gann Grid" is published by Cowan in these Gann Writings
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  • #3,420
  • May 22, 2020 2:51pm May 22, 2020 2:51pm
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