Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 170 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Planetary cycles, astrological theory of cycles of the markets 510 replies

Forecast Forex using Numeric Cycles and Astrology Cycles 38 replies

Planetary Cycles... Plotting Cycles into the Future 0 replies

Market Waves are NOT Cycles 8 replies

Waves/Trends/Cycles 0 replies

Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
Exit Attachments

Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #3,381
  • Edited 6:23pm May 19, 2020 5:29pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} I have a special ability....I can predict the past with precision....haaaaa!
Swede it is called : Making a post-mortem analysis. A VERY useful tool.
  • #3,382
  • May 19, 2020 5:58pm May 19, 2020 5:58pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Swede it is called : Making a post-mortem analysis. A VERY useful tool.
(my comment was tongue in cheek....I have 20 20 vision when when I look at what I missed)

I missed this today as I was out of the office but the post mortem would look like this...with the standard settings we had a great entry....on the expansion break double the paremiters and we have the target exit area.....great perspective I must admit...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-19_1650.png Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-19_1650_001.png Size: 107 KB
  • #3,383
  • May 19, 2020 6:16pm May 19, 2020 6:16pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} (my comment was tongue in cheek....I have 20 20 vision when when I look at what I missed) I missed this today as I was out of the office but the post mortem would look like this...with the standard settings we had a great entry....on the expansion break double the paremiters and we have the target exit area.....great perspective I must admit... {image} {image}

And yet, the only information Gann had no disclosed, not even mention in his books or very expensive classes was information about harmonic cycle analysis.

"I am sharing for the first time revelation of Gann’s discovery in 1909, where he said this is based on principle without which no telegraphic communications would have been possible and also

“In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as an astronomer does, based on immutable laws which I have discovered”"

The telegraphic principle is based on doubling and halving the frequency of waves and when they are in confluence then effect is pronounced otherwise they are cancelling in nature…

"“When the time cycle is up, neither Republican, Democrat, nor our good President Hoover can stem the tide. It is a natural law. Action equals reaction in the opposite direction. We see it in the ebb and flow of the tide and we know that from the full bloom of summer follows the dead leaves of winter.”

“People believed that the Government by buying cotton, wheat and loaning money could stop the depression, but when once a cycle is up and prices are due to decline, nothing can stop them until it has run its course. The same when the main trend turns up, neither government interference nor anything else can stop the advance until it runs its course.”

“There is no top and bottom price which cannot be determined by mathematics. Every market movement is the result of a cause and when once you determine the cause, it is easy enough to know why the effect is as it is.” [9]

“‘I figure things by mathematics,’ Mr. Gann explained. ‘There is nothing mysterious about any of my predictions. If I have the data I can use algebra and geometry and tell exactly by the theory of cycles when a certain thing is going to occur again.’”
W.D. Gann
  • #3,384
  • May 19, 2020 6:19pm May 19, 2020 6:19pm
Hurst has never explained why nominal model looks this way and not any another.

Gann mentions "The telegraphic principle is based on doubling and halving the frequency of waves”.

Also, Gann helps with an estimate of price targets. Gann was ahead of Hurst in cycles research and mentions important principals like for example superposition of cycles.

"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions.”

W.D. Gann
  • #3,385
  • May 20, 2020 4:00am May 20, 2020 4:00am
Quoting Swede
{quote} (my comment was tongue in cheek....I have 20 20 vision when when I look at what I missed) I missed this today as I was out of the office but the post mortem would look like this...with the standard settings we had a great entry....on the expansion break double the paremiters and we have the target exit area.....great perspective I must admit... {image} {image}
Swede
A thing of beauty
Dave
  • #3,386
  • May 20, 2020 4:08am May 20, 2020 4:08am
Quoting Swede
{quote} (my comment was tongue in cheek....I have 20 20 vision when when I look at what I missed) I missed this today as I was out of the office but the post mortem would look like this...with the standard settings we had a great entry....on the expansion break double the paremiters and we have the target exit area.....great perspective I must admit... {image} {image}
Milking the Chart. Added with some "predictions".

Envelopes Triad System is Simple and Efficient
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SWEDE RETURN TO THE MEAN CMA 256.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #3,387
  • May 20, 2020 4:16am May 20, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Swede
{quote} (my comment was tongue in cheek....I have 20 20 vision when when I look at what I missed) I missed this today as I was out of the office but the post mortem would look like this...with the standard settings we had a great entry....on the expansion break double the paremiters and we have the target exit area.....great perspective I must admit... {image} {image}
Same reasoning with DOUBLED parameters

You will endlessly observe the same patterns - whatever the TimeFrame you use, whatever the Forex pair , stock, Index you trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SWEDE RETURN TO THE MEAN 2 CMA 256.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #3,388
  • May 20, 2020 4:21am May 20, 2020 4:21am
Old charts of the DAX, DOW and Eurusd to compare with above Swede's charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 11 RETURN TO THE MEAN 15 JANVIER 2020.jpg Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX RETURN TO THE MEAN 12 AOUT 2018.png Size: 235 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DJI RETURN TO THE MEAN 12 DECEMBRE 2019.png Size: 1.4 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD RETUR TO THE MEANS.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #3,389
  • May 20, 2020 4:29am May 20, 2020 4:29am
To compare with Swede's Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX GAP DOWN - 175 POINTS 19 JUIN 2018.png Size: 211 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DECROCHAGE BAISSIER 200 POINTS + RETOUR MMC 256.png Size: 246 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX GAP DOWN 125 POINTS 16 SEPTEMBRE 2019.png Size: 1.2 MB
  • #3,390
  • May 20, 2020 4:34am May 20, 2020 4:34am
Quoting parisboy
To compare with Swede's Charts {image} {image} {image}
Need my Brain in gear this morning for sure, hold on need to go and look for it, were did I put it
ps
Your charts will not enlarge again for some reason
  • #3,391
  • May 20, 2020 6:39am May 20, 2020 6:39am
Alain
A Question
You have shown many posts in the past of your thoughts on the use of a GANN Grid but what or if any part does it play in your live trading ?
  • #3,392
  • May 20, 2020 8:57am May 20, 2020 8:57am
Your FLDs hit the jackpot again today
ps
(Of course I cannot resist )
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM5a.png Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM5b.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM5c.png Size: 100 KB
  • #3,393
  • May 20, 2020 10:15pm May 20, 2020 10:15pm
110 is a well established barrier to the upside...so went in pretty heavy but with a little bounce here, and Asia session ending, best to watch for further entries if 110 holds...been a pretty good day overall..scaled out with all wins, no losses...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-20_2110.png Size: 84 KB
  • #3,394
  • May 21, 2020 3:51am May 21, 2020 3:51am
Quoting OAPDave
Alain A Question You have shown many posts in the past of your thoughts on the use of a GANN Grid but what or if any part does it play in your live trading ?
Hi Dave I will elaborate on "gann grid " subject later
  • #3,395
  • May 21, 2020 4:51am May 21, 2020 4:51am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hi Dave I will elaborate on "gann grid " subject later
No problem, when ever you have the time.
Always have my Murrey to be going on with in the mean time ( !!!!!! )
  • #3,396
  • Edited 5:25pm May 21, 2020 10:15am | Edited 5:25pm
using FLD method this morning....8 sma set at 8 and 16 forward....is this correct settings?

edit.....follow up...still holding a few runners...looks like the little bounce back is failing...

second edit...closed all positions in profit ....reset FLD to 8-32
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-21_0914.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-21_1016.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-05-21_1621.png Size: 48 KB
  • #3,397
  • Edited 12:26pm May 21, 2020 11:02am | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting Swede
using FLD method this morning....8 sma set at 8 and 16 forward....is this correct settings? {image}
To be honest never thought of looking at the 8/8 always used 8/16
ps
Hope you do not mind Swede
ps to a ps
Swede do you take into account Range expectation for the day ( I reference NIH98 info box) top right on chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 93 KB
  • #3,398
  • Edited 2:15pm May 21, 2020 1:56pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting Swede
using FLD method this morning....8 sma set at 8 and 16 forward....is this correct settings? edit.....follow up...still holding a few runners...looks like the little bounce back is failing... {image} {image}
Swede , I always link the Theory and its Practical use in the real world of Trading.

The Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) is NOT the projection in the Future of a Moving Average - Centered Movinga Average or Simple Moving Average.

The Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) is the projection in the Future of present Price of 1/2 of the FLD period.

To be efficient the FLD Period has to be corresponding to an existing vibration / frequency within Price Action (or at least very close of it) - otherwise you go nowhere.

This is why I use basically the FLD 32 / 128 and 256 corresponding to the parameters used for building the 3 Envelopes. You have seen their efficiency whatever the financial instrument and the TimeFrame you use.

Structurally only 50 % of the FLD Patterns are tradable - allowing to calculate Target Price.

The other 50 % FLD patterns see Price Action bouncing on the FLD or gliding along.

When Price Action glides along its FLD you can use this FLD to "control" the Trend - bearish or bullish- as long as this FLD is not broken you can infer that the trend will be persistent. You take a break as a Change in Trend (CIT) Warning.

Hence I use A FLD 8 - projection of Price 4 time units Forward as a Warning and a FLD 16 - projection of Price 8 Time Units Forward _ as a confirmaation of Change in Trend
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (1x3) english 42.pptx   3.1 MB | 385 downloads
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (2x3) english 42.pptx   3.0 MB | 378 downloads
File Type: pptx 10 FLD FUTURE LINE OF DEMARCATION (3x3) english 42.pptx   4.1 MB | 423 downloads
  • #3,399
  • May 21, 2020 2:34pm May 21, 2020 2:34pm
DOW FLD 8 Post Mortem Analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW FLD 8 POST MORTEM.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #3,400
  • May 21, 2020 2:40pm May 21, 2020 2:40pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW FLD 8 & 16 POST MORTEM.jpg Size: 143 KB
13 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
SilverSeven