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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,741
  • May 15, 2020 8:20am May 15, 2020 8:20am
Quoting palpite
. Sell - 106.92 SL - 107.43 .
If the previous one didnt work, why would it work now? Maybe its still a sideways market. I disagree with your trade.
  • #82,742
  • May 15, 2020 8:27am May 15, 2020 8:27am
It has obviously rejected the 106.00 area. Now it has moved once to 107.7x rejected it and moved downwards again. Stabilizing around 107. This is now a sideways market with more pressure from the bulls as it has double topped at 106.42. Once the market is clear, the probabilities of breaking 106.42 are much higher than breaking the downside.
  • #82,743
  • May 15, 2020 10:37am May 15, 2020 10:37am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} In a good mood so I made a chart strictly for UJ buyers 'ONLY' Sellers can assume price and do as they please SS {image}
I have to say it's been an interesting journey stacking up on this..
Target even more interesting....

111.xx
StaySafe
  • #82,744
  • May 15, 2020 10:38am May 15, 2020 10:38am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} I have to say it's been an interesting journey stacking up on this.. Target even more interesting.... 111.xx StaySafe
needs to break. Lots of selling pressure around 107.40-107.70
  • #82,745
  • May 15, 2020 11:06am May 15, 2020 11:06am
Quoting dimadono
{quote} needs to break. Lots of selling pressure around 107.40-107.70
which pressure? What’s that?

Please don’t start with the selling thingy .. I remember you said we going to 101 while I was stacking up..

Stay Safe
  • #82,746
  • May 15, 2020 11:07am May 15, 2020 11:07am
I never said that. I am actually long since 106.26
  • #82,747
  • May 15, 2020 11:10am May 15, 2020 11:10am
I am just reconsidering in terms of staying in or pulling out.
  • #82,748
  • May 15, 2020 11:11am May 15, 2020 11:11am
Quoting dimadono
{quote} There you go. And down it goes. No support after 106. Ready for free fall!
Is this you? jokes on you
  • #82,749
  • May 15, 2020 12:14pm May 15, 2020 12:14pm
Yeah that was when it was 106. It got rejected. Read my statements above. We are trading here. If i knew its a long 100% i wouldnt be talking to you here.

It rejected 106 after it finally found support and then i started buying it. If it broke 106 i would start selling it. It didnt happen and know things change. Thats trading.
  • #82,750
  • May 15, 2020 2:22pm May 15, 2020 2:22pm
Quoting tehnoob
If, as I suspect, all this down move of the past couple of days in the stock markets was in order to clean past clusters of lows and give an opportunity to buy at the month's low or thereabout (from which markets had run away right from the month's open), then this mission has now been accomplished and markets will move back up to the top of the range of the past few weeks. This may push the USD/JPY higher too

I agree. Only thing missing is a flushout to the downside. If they spent this much time her loading up, they are not trying to take us little people along for the ride. Today's close will tell us just how far that flush will reach, but it is coming in my opinion. IF it doesn't show.. we aren't going that far. Before they clear out of here to the upside they are going to stop out the good traders with small accounts and tight stops, break the bad overly leveraged trader's accounts, and generally make peeps P&L's scream. I suspect it will be just enough to make one think the floor is falling out. The post US market wrap up will give us a hint I think.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,751
  • May 16, 2020 3:56pm May 16, 2020 3:56pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree. Only thing missing is a flushout to the downside. If they spent this much time her loading up, they are not trying to take us little people along for the ride. Today's close will tell us just how far that flush will reach, but it is coming in my opinion. IF it doesn't show.. we aren't going that far. Before they clear out of here to the upside they are going to stop out the good traders with small accounts and tight stops, break the bad overly leveraged trader's accounts, and generally make peeps P&L's scream. I suspect it will...
Japan GDP report tomorrow. Going show a contraction. I think we see some upside on the dollar end.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #82,752
  • May 17, 2020 11:49pm May 17, 2020 11:49pm
Quoting tehnoob
Hello everyone. Price is essentially back to it's breakout level from couple days' ago. It has one so as stock markets (Dow, Dax, FTSE etc) revisited their May open levels, which also happened to be at or neear their monthly low's, until yesterday. They have since stalled somewhat {image}
Good morning.

Well my USD/JPY long trade hasn't really gone anywhere over the past few days. Price action since the breakout is beginning to look like another 'fakeout' north.

Stop loss is now at break-even, letting the market do its thing.
I don't have any other forex positions active atm. Only index positions
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  • #82,753
  • May 18, 2020 12:32am May 18, 2020 12:32am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I agree. Only thing missing is a flushout to the downside. If they spent this much time her loading up, they are not trying to take us little people along for the ride. Today's close will tell us just how far that flush will reach, but it is coming in my opinion. IF it doesn't show.. we aren't going that far. Before they clear out of here to the upside they are going to stop out the good traders with small accounts and tight stops, break the bad overly leveraged trader's accounts, and generally make peeps P&L's scream. I suspect it will...
It's possible, but such painful flush outs usually happen at sentiment extremes. At present various data sources suggest there is little participation or conviction in both long and short. Many will have been killed by the rise to 112 followed by the plunge to 101, followed by the rise to 111. Any flushouts where we are now will probably stay muted for a while as volatility subsides. The only thing is, the overall trend before these volatility spikes was DOWN, so IMO it is still the most likely trend to assert itself as volatility subsides

I do expect USDJPY to revisit 90 at some point, before any major drop or even crisis in the yen
  • #82,754
  • May 18, 2020 9:52am May 18, 2020 9:52am
Not a nice candle to see on the 30min, after a modest uptrend. Such "bullish engulfing" candles after uptrends tend to be signs of reversal.

But it's only the 30min chart, so may be just a pause.
In any case, my stops are now raised to 107.20, locking in some 50 pips.

I should add that I'm out of index longs that I entered into on last Friday's fakeout dive. Posting thse in my thread, as not USD/JPY related
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  • #82,755
  • May 18, 2020 11:01am May 18, 2020 11:01am
Its been 2 week now that we are on a sideways market.

My honest opinion is to keep the longs as long as the channel line breaks on the weekly tails that are formed.

that support is around 106.80
  • #82,756
  • May 18, 2020 11:02am May 18, 2020 11:02am
I knew I didn't like that 30min candle.
It has reversed the uptrend for now. I am getting stopped out at 107.20 as I type this, so that is this trade closed for me with 50 pips profit.

Now flat on all markets
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  • #82,757
  • May 18, 2020 1:00pm May 18, 2020 1:00pm
Quoting tehnoob
I knew I didn't like that 30min candle. It has reversed the uptrend for now. I am getting stopped out at 107.20 as I type this, so that is this trade closed for me with 50 pips profit. Now flat on all markets {image}
Kindly permit me to ask why bullish engulfing formation at that level pointed out a reversal for you.

Thanks.
  • #82,758
  • May 18, 2020 1:30pm May 18, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting Express
{quote} Kindly permit me to ask why bullish engulfing formation at that level pointed out a reversal for you. Thanks.
Some candlestick patterns work OK, but not in the way you are being taught in books, forums and youtube videos. This is a multi-trillion dollar market. You are competing with hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, investment banks, the treasuries of large multinationals, each of whom invests millions in developing machines, algorithms and traders who want to make money in this market. You think they will let some random Joe take their money by downloading and memorising some candlestick patterns off an e-book that anyone can find?

You have to find ways to be profitably unconventional, even with conventional tools. Go back to tops/bottoms of significant trends and look for these engulfing , "outside" or "star" patterns , and notice how many times bullish candles were signals of an imminent bear or, conversely, bearish patterns were the beginning of a bull trend.
They appear in all timeframes.
  • #82,759
  • May 18, 2020 4:08pm May 18, 2020 4:08pm
My View
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https://investizo.com/investment/view?server=1&login=2141779119
  • #82,760
  • May 19, 2020 2:37am May 19, 2020 2:37am
I agree with the buy.

But since we've been on a sideways market for a while now, i think that the breakout could last longer than 108. It could head towards psychological level 110 and then we might see it stabilizing there again for a while. And hopefully after that another big breakout.
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