Institutional trade recommendations

I am interested to know how institutional trade recommendations perform. In this trading journal, I post institutional trade ideas (mostly free stuff from the web), and I will follow up with their performance.

Feel free to post any institutional trade recommendations that you want to share here.

TD Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a bearish bias and a short position in spot targeting a move towards 1.1850 over the coming weeks.
"Brexit's back on the radar screen, as the government has ruled out any extension of the transition period in no uncertain terms. The EU has said no extension would be possible unless it is agreed by the end of June," TD notes.

GBPUSD is 1.246 at time of this post

Bank Of America Global Research maintains a buy-on-dips bias for USD and JPY. BofA holds long USD/CAD in spot targeting a move towards 1.50, and a short EUR/JPY via an options structure.

USDCAD is 1.406

MUFG Research discusses AUD/NZD outlook and sees a scope for a move lower in the near-term.
"AUD/NZD rising from a low of 0.9996 to a recent high of 1.0752 over the same period. Our QI technical models signal that the AUD is the most overbought G10 currency thereby increasing the risk of a correction lower in the near-term.

AUD/NZD is 1.063

UOB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and revises its targets to 1.09, 1.10, and 1.11 in Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively.

Citi outlines its key bias on G10 currencies this week.
"We are bullish: USD: We have a bullish bias for the USD this week, especially as month-end selling is out of the way and USD positioning is more neutral. USD also tends to appreciate in May, even though we do not know of a good reason why (alongside several other May seasonality patterns). The fall in USD Libor is only modestly USD-negative," Citi notes.
"We are bearish: EUR vs G10 safe havens, even though EUR likely holds up in broad terms in risk-off. CAD. Tiff Macklem was announced as new BoC governor but we mostly expect policy continuity. GBP as no Brexit extension risk still remains mispriced. We don’t expect new BoE measures on Thursday even though the BoE may well point to higher QE in the future," Citi adds.

NAB discusses NZD/USD technical outlook and expects the pair to maintain a 0.5850 / 0.6275 range in May.
"The April close placed NZD/USD back inside its two year and three year downtrend channels but fell short of completing a bullish monthly reversal pattern. This confirms a likely higher range in the coming months but does not imply a sustainable MT uptrend," NAB notes.
"While weekly closes remain above the three year downtrend base around 0.5850, we anticipate NZD/USD maintaining a 0.5850 / 0.6275 range in May. One-month target at 0.6150. Three-month target at 0.6150," NAB adds.

NZDUSD is 0.6060

Credit Agricole discusses EUR/CHF outlook and expects the cross to stay in a range-bound pattern over the coming weeks. CACAIB holds a structural long EUR/CHF position targeting a move towards 1.12.

EURCHF 1.054

Societe Generale Research maintains a structural bearish bias on EUR and CAD, preferring to express that via short EUR/JPY and long AUD/CAD.

AUD/CAD 0.904
EURJPY 115.45

AB discusses AUD/USD technical outlook and adopts a bullish bias on a multi-months basis.
"We anticipate that the current ST correction will struggle to sustain levels below 0.6250/0.6300 in the coming weeks ahead of a renewed MT uptrend bias. One-month target at 0.6675. Three-month target at 0.6850," NAB .

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and outlines 6 key reasons for staying structurally bearish on the pair over the coming months targeting a move towards 1.02.
"Though EURUSD is undervalued by about 10%, according to our estimates, we see it weakening further in the rest of the year . We forecast EURUSD at 1.02-1.05, with risks to the downside.

Citi flags a scope for EUR/JPY to trend lower towards a move into 109.57 over the coming weeks.
"EURJPY traded below the support around 116 again (where the September 2019 low converges with the 76.4% retracement level of the 2016 - 2018 upmove). We watch for a close below the level on a weekly basis for further extensions towards the 2016 low at 109.57," Cti adds.

Credit Suisse maintains a tactical technical bearish bias on EUR/USD targeting a break of 1.0727 targeting 1.0635 ahead of 1.0341 over the coming weeks.
"We stay bearish for the potential uptrend at 1.0762 and eventually a move below the 1.0727 April low. Whilst a fresh bounce from this 1.0762/27 zone is likely, we continue to look for an eventual clear break in due course to confirm a more impulsive move lower is indeed underway again, with the next meaningful support seen at the 1.0635 low of March," CS notes.
"Big picture, our bias is for this to also be removed in due course, with the next major support seen at 1.0341, the key low from late 2016. Resistance is seen at 1.0827 initially, then the 13-day average and price resistance at 1.0859, which we look to now ideally cap. Above can see a recovery back to 1.0923/26," CS adds.

TD Research maintains a bearish bias on AUD, expressing that via holding a short AUD/USD exposure targeting a move towards 0.6175.

Standard Chartered went short EUR/CHF at 1.06 today, stop 1.08, target 0.95

The weekly FX pick from TD Securities is to buy CHF/JPY at spt with a target of 113.25 and a stop at 109.75.

Bank of America Global Research maintains a bearish and short EUR/USD exposure targeting a move towards 1.05.

Credit Agricole Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP in the medium-term.
"Negative rates could fuel sharp portfolio outflows, trigger wild GBP gyrations and FX volatility, reducing further the appeal of UK assets for foreigners and increasing FX hedging costs to the detriment of corporate profits. Negative rates have the potential to deal a significant blow to the GBP and send it towards 1.20 or lower vs the USD and toward 0.92 or higher vs the EUR," CACIB adds.

MUFG Research maintains a short GBP/JPY exposure and doesn't expect further GBP rally from current levels.

Societie Generale Research flags a scope fro EUR/USD to break higher, while maintains shorts in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

"A slightly stronger fix in Beijing was interpreted a signal that the authorities are, at least, reluctant to see their currency weaken too fast. If that triggers yuan short-covering, that could be a catalyst, in thin market conditions, for the euro to break higher into the month-end. So far, EUR/USD has twice failed to close above its 200-day average (1.1012) and since the March madness moves, has tested but failed to break it's 2-year downtrend, the top of which is at 1.11 now," SocGen notes.

"We've short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, with stops at 120 and 136 and we'll leave those to do their work. Sterling's by far the worst of the major currencies this month and while that opens the way for month-end short-covering, Andrew Bailey reasserts the MPC's readiness to act further in the Guardian. He's keeping the negative rate debate alive...Sterling's only support is the size of the short positions and thin month-end markets magnify that support, but that doesn't change the fundamentals," SocGen adds.