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Trading Made Simple

  • #103,061
  • Apr 24, 2020 1:48pm Apr 24, 2020 1:48pm
Quoting DrDave
But by using the pending sell, you did not need to wait for that next down bar to close and the TDI to be locked to be in the trade.)
Good advice. So far I always used instant market executional orders. Will try some setups with pending orders the coming week.
  • #103,062
  • Apr 24, 2020 2:16pm Apr 24, 2020 2:16pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} You don't even need to zoom out for the "big picture". Look at D1. Look at the angle of the EMA5 and if most of the HA bars are on one side of it and mostly the same color. If the EMA is rather flat and there are 2-3 HA bars on a color on one side, then 2-3 are on the other side (and especially if these bars are smaller range than what you were seeing in the prior definite "trend" swing), then its a sideways move. Look at EURUSD D1 this way. I think you will agree that EMA5 shift3 is pointing down and that there are about 6-7 HA bars BELOW...
Well explained Dave.

I just don’t know how to make a clear repeatable process for finding a trending market condition and then to define the direction of the trend.

I could try focusing trading for one market only but like said i guess I would have problems then finding enough trades for the month.

On the other hand if opening 28 currency pairs it would be a overkill for me at my current progress to do to this on my own.

So let’s say I want to trade M15 only with alignment to the trend on H1 while ignoring H4 and D1 completely is there any objective way how I could manage to do this every day for my trading hours?

Like looking at H1 with clear objective rules like last HA candle was red and stayed under the EMA shift 3, the end of the EMA is pointing down so i am looking only for short setups forming on M15.

What If then M15 didn’t provide a short signal for a few hours, H1 already closed a bullish candle above the EMA but I do not longer aware of this because I no longer watched H1 and went short on M15 but I am already at the end of the downhill, is that possible?
  • #103,063
  • Apr 24, 2020 2:19pm Apr 24, 2020 2:19pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for marking all the trade setups. As you know i do not trade the Daily Chart. I posted the Daily Chart for giving a clue about the longer term trend and wanted to know if my analyses of EUR/USD beeing in a down trend for the Daily Chart is correct. Now if that is correct i would need to know if entering those marked setups for H1 or M15 signals would be valid in regard to the ORIGINAL TMS rules, as this would mean clearly taking setups that are going against the primary trend right? regards.
Why does the long term (primary) bother you so much?
Remember the start of a new trend direction start on all time-frames the same time.
M1 will start with red or green bars first. (5min later M5. 15min later M15 ...........)
All timeframes above M1 will have wicks to the upside or downside. You will never know if you have entered at the start of a new trend direction.
So look at what the wicks above (let say M15) show you.
Look at the bar's color below M15.
===
Stop being so afraid or careful of trend direction. Know about them, yes of course. Don't let them stop you from placing trades.
post#686: If they are the same I feel I have better odds on my side... if they are opposite I may trade less lots per trade...
  • #103,064
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:00pm Apr 24, 2020 3:00pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well explained Dave. I just don’t know how to make a clear repeatable process for finding a trending market condition and then to define the direction of the trend. I could try focusing trading for one market only but like said i guess I would have problems then finding enough trades for the month. On the other hand if opening 28 currency pairs it would be a overkill for me at my current progress to do to this on my own. So let’s say I want to trade M15 only with alignment to the trend on H1 while ignoring H4 and D1 completely is there any...
If you want to use H1/M15, scroll back on a chart. Find some examples to study where there are at least 3 HA down bars under EMA5, then there is a rally where at least 1 HA up bar closes ABOVE EMA5 and mark the bar AFTER it with a vertical. Switch to M15. Look only to the LEFT of that vertical. Do TDI, stoch, HA bars, and EMA5 look like a buy setup? If no, switch back to H1 and move the vertical 1 bar to the right. Does the uncovered H1 bar support the prior up bar for buying? If yes, switch back to M15 and analyze again. If not, back to H1, move the vertical 1 bar right, repeat.

Repeat this but look first for at least 3 HA up bars under EMA5, then a pullback bar.

Remember, you are scrolled back and practicing, not live market now.

If your first H1 buy bar that closed above EMA5 also shows buying on M15, make an assumption that H1 has changed trend to up. Now on M15 you have two options. 1. Unless there is something that gives an obvious "Do not buy here!", then immediately place a market buy and follow the bars through to see how it turned out on BOTH H1 and M1. Option 2. Wait for M15 to make a pullback (can be either TDI green bounce from red or actually cross down, then cross back up), then when an up bar closes above EMA5, buy the open of the next bar. Follow the trade on both the M15 and H1 to see how it turned out.

Do this for a lot of CONSECUTIVE examples for a span of an entire week. Then go back 4-6 months and repeat for another week. Now you should have enough data and experience to decide if there are enough good trades with profits that outweigh the bad trades with losses to be able to test in live trading (demo or real account is up to you).
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,065
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:03pm Apr 24, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting lddd
What If then M15 didn’t provide a short signal for a few hours, H1 already closed a bullish candle above the EMA but I do not longer aware of this because I no longer watched H1 and went short on M15 but I am already at the end of the downhill, is that possible?
WHy, why, why would you abandon H1 if that is your source of trend direction????????????????????????????????????????

I think that it is time for you to simply say "This day trading is not for me. I am sticking with my other investment choices".
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,066
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:12pm Apr 24, 2020 3:12pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Why does the long term (primary) bother you so much? Remember the start of a new trend direction start on all time-frames the same time. M1 will start with red or green bars first. (5min later M5. 15min later M15 ...........) All timeframes above M1 will have wicks to the upside or downside. You will never know if you have entered at the start of a new trend direction. So look at what the wicks above (let say M15) show you. Look at the bar's color below M15. === Stop being so afraid or careful of trend direction. Know about them, yes of...
That is because he, like most people that I have dealt with, do not have a good way of looking at the inter-relationships of a set of timeframes, and miss out on a LOT of valuable information by looking only at the 9 timeframes provided by MT4 default charting. When 2 timeframes are opposite, the distance between them has a very large impact on this relationship.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,067
  • Apr 24, 2020 6:33pm Apr 24, 2020 6:33pm
Quoting lddd
Here.///. Going even one step further with the 4x basics like BigE suggested to look for like size of candles, slope of the moving averages and TDI/Stoch overbought and oversold maybe I would not even find a setup until Xmas. ///.

@lddd

That's very true. I have had too many X'Mas parties already in the last 30 years while waiting for that elusive green cross red thingy.

Anyway, I need time to clear my backlog of PMs this week and I have just read your PM and will reply later.

Have good weekend.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,068
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:19pm Apr 24, 2020 8:19pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Why does the long term (primary) bother you so much? Remember the start of a new trend direction start on all time-frames the same time. M1 will start with red or green bars first. (5min later M5. 15min later M15 ...........) All timeframes above M1 will have wicks to the upside or downside. You will never know if you have entered at the start of a new trend direction. So look at what the wicks above (let say M15) show you. Look at the bar's color below M15. === Stop being so afraid or careful of trend direction. Know about them, yes of...
I am bothering because the TDI which relies on the RSI as far as I know works best under trending conditions?

I just want to find a way to take only the best probability setups possible for a timeframe where I do not have to hold positions over night, preferable without having to deal with more than one market to trade but still providing a fair chance of volatility to reach an average take profit target of 10-20 pips per trade.

As far as I understand you take a lot of signals even if they are against a primary dominating trend on a higher time frame.

I understand that price has to form new trends from the bottom up and not the other way around but then I don’t understand why there is so much talk about the importance of multiple time frame analyses if I could just enter what ever setup on M15 no matter what I see on H1 and up.

If you remember back as I first came here I posted charts with setups meeting the entry criteria of the indicators where I got stopped out and you know what? Most of the time i then heard that I took a trade that was going against the trend or took a trade that was against a S/R, took a trade that was against what ever else of these subjective 4x basics.

So now I am trying to find a way how to make things clearly more objective to me so the next losing trades I am going to post here can’t at least not be criticized for these reasons :-)
  • #103,069
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:20pm Apr 24, 2020 8:20pm
Quoting marik64
{quote} Hello . I am a new forum member. Where can I find the latest template update, advisor and settings?
Hello

For all new members to this thread, you will find the OP's indicators and templates links in his Post#1.
That was his last update in Aug 2011.

If you want a summary of the thread Introduction to Trading Made System and where to begin your learning journey, then go to this Post#102,591.

Have Fun during your learning journey!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,070
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:37pm Apr 24, 2020 8:37pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That is because he, like most people that I have dealt with, do not have a good way of looking at the inter-relationships of a set of timeframes, and miss out on a LOT of valuable information by looking only at the 9 timeframes provided by MT4 default charting. When 2 timeframes are opposite, the distance between them has a very large impact on this relationship.
Yes maybe. The reason for that might be that I can’t find a proven right or wrong answer on how to do things.

If i start studying the web, this forum or even buy books regarding technical analyses you get like a thousands different answers, they are for sure all proven to be the right way but not even one of these gurus or professionals is going to back such claim by any kind of data.

So how should a newbie learn what’s right or wrong in technical analyses where the hole subject if self is no proven science like 1+1=2?

Now it also doesn’t help me to know there are candle stick patterns or chart patterns proven to have a greater chance of probability than flipping a coin since the markets were open for trading if I still can’t find them on a regular daily base because the probability here was maybe calculated for monthly chart but for sure not M15.
  • #103,071
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:41pm Apr 24, 2020 8:41pm
Quoting castlebrook
{quote} I take all these points on board and they make sense. Which is the correct version of TDI to use to avoid the repainting issue? Or is there not one?

Hi

There is no correct version of the Traders Dynamic Index.
The version used by the OP was the version released by Dean Malone' Synergy system subscribers and Big E was one of his hundreds of subscribers back then. That first version repaints but that was not the problem for Big E when he was trading. You cannot avoid the re-painting issue with that TDI version. I have also adapted to the re-painting issue when we knew about that issue in the another Synergy trading forum.

Simple solution: Do Not back-test by scrolling back and look at history charts where everything looks perfect where to enter and where to exit. Trade what you see in live market in the same way the OP did.
The other solution is to switch to the use of common indicator i.e the RSI and apply moving averages to the RSI(13) data or your preferred period which can be RSI(10), RSI(8), etc. This is the original Fozzy-RSI approach years before Dean Malone started marketing his Traders Dynamic Index. When you switch to the Fozzy-RSI, the clock face angle 12-2 and 4-6 are obsolete and you have to rely more on the momentum of Price Action and your selected RSI(xx) period. For example if your use RSI(13) then look at the price action and the RSI (13) line.

Fozzy RSI Method Post#59,617

study this book ...
RSI: The Complete Guideby John Hayden click to [download]

Trend Determination using the RSI (TDI)click to [download]
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,072
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:00pm Apr 24, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} WHy, why, why would you abandon H1 if that is your source of trend direction???????????????????????????????????????? I think that it is time for you to simply say "This day trading is not for me. I am sticking with my other investment choices".
Thanks Dave but giving up on things is not my style. Yes I have these other investments. I also don’t have a problem if I say so one day that it’s not my thing but something I am doing right.

I trade for almost 12 years now (without even understanding the basics) I blowed up my account, lost a hell lot of money with FXCM following some stupid signal service, that was the beginning.

Then I paused for some years and started all over again 2016, the account is still intact with a drawdown of near 15%. This month so far has been a 14,38% ROI over a 38 trades trades. I didn’t blowed up that account yet nor I am making a killing to buy a new house, I am happy with that but it light be luck and pure money management I am doing.

I also have a complete automated system running on a server doing fine since beginning of 2017 but it’s a martin gale system, I already paid out the initial desposit here last year so i don’t care if it will collapse tomorrow or keep making profits for the next few years before.

But I didn’t want to desposit a larger 6 figures number here with having something in the automated way at quiet a high risk of an total loss.

So yes i am doing fine but I would like to say some day after 12 month that some strategy was the edge or my pure feelings and guess work instead, so that’s what i am still here :-)
  • #103,073
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:14pm Apr 24, 2020 9:14pm
I would also like to say tanks to all you guys keep giving me advices here, it’s probably the first week I really learned a lot of interesting new things, so thank you and have a good weekend.
  • #103,074
  • Apr 25, 2020 2:57am Apr 25, 2020 2:57am
i am still having a problem with V19 it doesn't stop giving alerts it gives alerts without enabling autotrading button just u put in on the chart it gives alert while its on or off doesnt matter for it i have to remove it from the chart to shut down the alrets lol i guess i should look for v20
  • #103,075
  • Apr 25, 2020 4:24am Apr 25, 2020 4:24am
Quoting samobeast
i am still having a problem with V19 it doesn't stop giving alerts it gives alerts without enabling autotrading button just u put in on the chart it gives alert while its on or off doesnt matter for it i have to remove it from the chart to shut down the alrets lol i guess i should look for v20

strange problem you got there. I tried a few settings last week to try recreate your problem but no luck

have you looked in your folder and see which pair/s has that log

see Post#102,325 for the alert log file folder for the alert screenshots, its that same folder.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post12858137
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,076
  • Apr 25, 2020 4:39am Apr 25, 2020 4:39am
Quoting lddd
I would also like to say tanks to all you guys keep giving me advices here, it’s probably the first week I really learned a lot of interesting new things, so thank you and have a good weekend.
well you get some good information which you need to process and experience them yourself.

to succeed in this retail forex trading game needs a lot more that just what compiled in that BigE full pdf.
a few winning trades in a single trading day is no evidence of consistent results over a longer term like 3 to 5 years period. people are simply ignorant and too naive to believe that anyone claiming a 85 to 90% win rate is profitable in long term.

You have your personal investments, properties, bank saving, etc. plus other sources of income, what is your purpose and financial plan goal for trading spot forex? I recall you talked about trading capital of $100,000 at one time.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,077
  • Apr 25, 2020 5:39am Apr 25, 2020 5:39am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} well you get some good information which you need to process and experience them yourself. to succeed in this retail forex trading game needs a lot more that just what compiled in that BigE full pdf. a few winning trades in a single trading day is no evidence of consistent results over a longer term like 3 to 5 years period. people are simply ignorant and too naive to believe that anyone claiming a 85 to 90% win rate is profitable in long term. You have your personal investments, properties, bank saving, etc. plus other sources of income,...
Change your to succeed in this retail forex trading game needs a lot more that just what compiled in that BigE full pdf.
a few winning trades in a single trading day is no evidence of consistent results over a longer term like 3 to 5 years period. people are simply ignorant and too naive to believe that anyone claiming a 85 to 90% win rate is profitable in long term.

What Realjumper posted about you is so true.
Grow up Emmanuel.
"For sure, he'll deride you behind your back and take snide cheap shots at you...that's his 'M.O'....don't worry about."
Reader's should really read this: Post 96,001

> a few winning trades every single trading day is evidence of consistent results over a longer term like 3 to 5 years period
  • #103,078
  • Apr 25, 2020 5:53am Apr 25, 2020 5:53am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Change your to succeed in this retail forex trading game needs a lot more that just what compiled in that BigE full pdf. a few winning trades in a single trading day is no evidence of consistent results over a longer term like 3 to 5 years period. people are simply ignorant and too naive to believe that anyone claiming a 85 to 90% win rate is profitable in long term. What Realjumper posted about you is so true. Grow up Emmanuel. "For sure, he'll deride you behind your back and take snide cheap shots at you...that's his 'M.O'....don't worry...

Tekkies

CONSISTENCY is one of the key to successful trading over a longer period. I think of 3 to 5 years is a good measure.

do you have 3 years winning consistently with 85 to 90% win rate?

you made false claim in Sep 2016. did I deride you? anyone can make such claim in public forum.

Post#71,385
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...88#post9154988
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,079
  • Apr 25, 2020 6:18am Apr 25, 2020 6:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Tekkies CONSISTENCY is one of the key to successful trading over a longer period. I think of 3 to 5 years is a good measure. do you have 3 years winning consistently with 85 to 90% win rate? you made false claim in Sep 2016. did I deride you? anyone can make such claim in public forum. Post#71,385 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...88#post9154988
do you have 3 years winning consistently with 85 to 90% win rate?
count the winning cherry picking posted chart's, they do add up.
Can count them blue / yellow trend lines, they do add up also.
  • #103,080
  • Apr 25, 2020 6:36am Apr 25, 2020 6:36am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} do you have 3 years winning consistently with 85 to 90% win rate? count the winning cherry picking posted chart's, they do add up. Can count them blue / yellow trend lines, they do add up also.
Tekkies

let's look at the facts:

March 24, 2016: "Just a newbie to other newbies..."

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...74#post8834074

Sep 22, 2016: "TDI for me is the Holy Grail."
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...88#post9154988

in just 6 months, you claim ... win rate is about 85 - 90% with all rules applied.

Who do you think you are fooling here in this thread? ONLY you and yourself.

You got yourself sucked in by the OP Post#495

Look where all the TMS traders from between 2008 to 2011 are today. Make a guess.

Look at Dean Malone and CompassFX tdoay. Do your own due diligence. Stop dreaming. This is retail spot forex.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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