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Trading Made Simple

  • #103,041
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:03am Apr 24, 2020 3:03am
Quoting lddd
{quote} i heard of people successfully trading only one market on lower timeframes for over years, not to get super rich quick but at least they are able to make a good life out of it, not sure if this isn’t all just rumors but don’t think so. Just didn’t find out how they are doing it :-/
If you ever come across one of those leprechauns, please be sure to let me know. I'd love to have a bowl of Lucky Charms with him.
  • #103,042
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:24am Apr 24, 2020 3:24am
Quoting lisat
{quote}I'm a bit confused as to why that is how Eelfranz would have traded it. Its on the 4th HA candle, with no bounce. The bounce took place 2 candles before, so he wouldn't have taken it as far as I can see.
C'mon lisat! You're causing trauma for the Kool-Aid Kids when you point out those mistakes!
(I agree with you. If BigE would not have been at his terminal to enter at (or VERY close to) the open of that 2nd green bar, he would passed, because he said bounce trades are riskier than cross overs.)
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,043
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:18am Apr 24, 2020 4:18am
Quoting lisat
{quote}I'm a bit confused as to why that is how Eelfranz would have traded it. Its on the 4th HA candle, with no bounce. The bounce took place 2 candles before, so he wouldn't have taken it as far as I can see.
well, I would not know how Eric would have traded that too but I know when he scalped he did so on H4.

But I looked at Daily at the open of today and among the 5 pairs - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USCHF, only two pairs (EURUSD and USDCHF meet my criteria for a H4 trade. I have my initial SL below previous 2 candles low and my Expectancy is above 2.0. Even when I scalp, I do it on my H4.
Should the price move forward and pull back 15 to 20 pips, I exit and keep the pips I have.

I look at the Trend 2/8 H4, the previous 2 bars were bullish and previous D1 bar also bullish. ... these are my added filters to pick the best of the 5 pairs.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,044
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:22am Apr 24, 2020 4:22am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} well, I would not know how Eric would have traded that too but I know when he scalped he did so on H4. But I looked at Daily at the open of today and among the 5 pairs - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USCHF, only two pairs (EURUSD and USDCHF meet my criteria for a H4 trade. I have my initial SL below previous 2 candles low and my Expectancy is above 2.0. Even when I scalp, I do it on my H4. Should the price move forward and pull back 15 to 20 pips, I exit and keep the pips I have. I look at the Trend 2/8 H4, the previous 2 bars were...
That was why I was questioning it. To say you were trading as the OP would do, is not technically right.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #103,045
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:25am Apr 24, 2020 4:25am
Quoting lisat
{quote}That was why I was questioning it. To say you were trading as the OP would do, is not technically right.

I was only referring to his 4H - 10PM, 2AM and 6AM and checking my charts looking for trading opportunities.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #103,046
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:39am Apr 24, 2020 4:39am
Quoting lisat
{quote}That was why I was questioning it. To say you were trading as the OP would do, is not technically right.
Is it any wonder why folks like Iddd and the Kool-Aid Kids can't make heads nor tails of what TMS is?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,047
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:45am Apr 24, 2020 4:45am
Quoting emmanuel7788
well, I would not know how Eric would have traded that
Finally, you got something right.
But why add all of the IRRELEVANT information when you could have given the simple one that you gave in post #103047? Ah, of course, those poor communication skills again.
Quoting emmanuel7788
But I looked at Daily at the open of today and among the 5 pairs - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USCHF, only two pairs (EURUSD and USDCHF meet my criteria for a H4 trade. I have my initial SL below previous 2 candles low and my Expectancy is above 2.0. Even when I scalp, I do it on my H4. Should the price move forward and pull back 15 to 20 pips, I exit and keep the pips I have. I look at the Trend 2/8 H4, the previous 2 bars were bullish and previous D1 bar also bullish. ... these are my added filters to pick the best of the 5 pairs.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,048
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:11am Apr 24, 2020 5:11am
Quoting yokoten
{quote} If you ever come across one of those leprechauns, please be sure to let me know. I'd love to have a bowl of Lucky Charms with him.
Yes. By the way i didn´t mean scalping (taking 20+ trades each day for 5 pips). When i talk about day trading i mean looking for a setup of higher probability maybe even running for a few hours but not holding positions overnight.

My trading plan already holds a rule for not taking more than 3 trades each day. If i lose the first trade i take a second if possible. If the second one is lost too, i stop trading for that day. If the first trade for the day is a winner reaching TP or near TP i stop trading for the day as well.

Most of the trades i take are picked from M15 and the average duration is over 1 Hour. So i wouldn´t call this scalping.

Anyways the main problematic that keeps driving me nuts is to pre-define each day what instrument to trade as i didn´t found a clear objective way how to detect if the market condition for the instrument is right or not e.g trending or not trending.

Looking for EUR/USD for today as an example. I would have spotted a H1 setup which is against the Daily Chart, while H4 was going to switch to a bullish candle.

Now lets say that i only want to trade one sepcific instrument for a pre-defined time of the day. I see no way how to make money here with only one "trend following strategy" if most of the time there simply is no trend at all.

I think you would need 1-2 more strategies / entry setup criteria to have at least a fair chance to come out profitable even if having a bad period of drawdown.
  • #103,049
  • Edited 6:06am Apr 24, 2020 5:34am | Edited 6:06am
Here.

EUR/USD - Daily (Looking at the zoomed out chart it looks like a down trend to me even without counting highs or lows)

So i would only look for SHORT opportunities by TMS right?

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Now H4 is already different ...

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H1 would be my "trend" i want to follow for setups found on M15 right?

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Here is M15. No TDI green/red cross for that H1 candle. M15 happened several hours before. So what helps looking at H1/H4/Daily before finding the setup on the time frame i want to execute and plan my trade for? I guess nothing. Also notice how late the entry would have been if following any objective entry criteria like only if candle closed above/below the moving average and so on.

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Now i would have 2 options. Taking the one M15 setup formed on EUR/USD earlier this day and trade against the trend. Not so cool right? But thats the same situation you face for almost every day. I rarely see any setup which is in alignment with all TF trends or not find a trending instrument at all.

Now if I would further make my entries depend on support or resistance probably I would find no valid setup for the complete month, not to forget that TMS is not giving one objective way of how to / where to draw support or resistance or use any indicator for that, pivot points Fibonacci of what ever people use for that.

Going even one step further with the 4x basics like BigE suggested to look for like size of candles, slope of the moving averages and TDI/Stoch overbought and oversold maybe I would not even find a setup until Xmas.

So i could try taking every M15 cross over with a robot to find out at least if it has a positive edge by the end of X trading day to come out positive with fixed objective entry/exit settings, but hey than I wouldn’t care about all the subjective stuff I can find out only with manual analyzing charts each day before opening a position like market condition, support and resistance, layout of price action because the robot could not manage to analyse that, so again no real help :-/

in conclusion a Martin Gale EA that you can at least back test and know it has some kind of edge after a thousands of trades even if the risk of an higher drawdown is mich higher sounds like the better alternative to me than dealing with all that crap it you can’t find objective entry/exit criteria you can repeat executing manually then day in day out.
  • #103,050
  • Apr 24, 2020 6:52am Apr 24, 2020 6:52am
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDCHF Apr 24 H4 Trading H4 the way the OP did, check my charts once every 4Hours at 10PM, 2AM and 6AM. Do Not trade H4 after London sessions closed. Wait till the following day when Tokyo session resumes and watch the market. this is today 10PM H4 candle trade.... continuation of the HA PA above its 5EMA, place SL below previous two candles low. {image}
Hello . I am a new forum member. Where can I find the latest template update, advisor and settings?
  • #103,051
  • Apr 24, 2020 7:02am Apr 24, 2020 7:02am
Quoting yokoten
{quote} My apologies, lddd. I have a habit of making random statements (seemingly picked out of a hat) especially when I'm ranting. I acknowledged that it was a digression and out of place in this longstanding thread. Having said that, when one looks at how smart money trades recently {image} and compare that to a decade ago {image} you start to see a story unfold.
Thanks. Well, I think you can’t compare the smart money group with retail traders at all.

If you are a Bank or a large fund, would you need to risk day trading, probably not?

If you are a small individual looking for growing your account not having millions of risk capital available would you take high leverage and day trade? Why not if using it wisely and follow strict money management and get a better chance of growing faster.

By the way there are tons of examples of „pro“ traders like banks, funds and traders for those players lost billions no matter if day trading the markets or kept holding to billions of dollars of losing positions over the years while even averaging into those positions because of poor risk/money management and geeed.

Now I wouldn’t call these guys smart money or professional either just because these are traders with a fancy looking business card sitting in a large Investment Bank or Fund.

I am sure there are „retail“ traders acting much more professional consistently with the only difference of playing the game with less capital but it doesn’t has to mean you need to trade the Daily Charts to have success while other trading smaller time frames having no success.

Sure statistics speak for it self that most losing that way but same as with everything else, most people are stupid doesn’t mean everyone is stupid.
  • #103,052
  • Apr 24, 2020 7:16am Apr 24, 2020 7:16am
Quoting lddd
Here. EUR/USD - Daily (Looking at the zoomed out chart it looks like a down trend to me even without counting highs or lows) So i would only look for SHORT opportunities by TMS right? {image} Now H4 is already different ... {image} H1 would be my "trend" i want to follow for setups found on M15 right? {image} Here is M15. No TDI green/red cross for that H1 candle. M15 happened several hours before. So what helps looking at H1/H4/Daily before finding the setup on the time frame i want to execute and plan my trade for? I guess nothing. Also notice...
Are you sure you have picked up on various strategies for finding setups??

Look at your EURUSDH4 that I cropped. You said D1 was in an obvious downtrend, so you are looking for sell setups. Fine.
So you switch to H4 and find that although it is also CLEARLY in a downtrend with 12 HA bars closed belw EMA5, you see an up bar forming--it hasn't even closed yet--so wht, you decide it is in an UPTREND ("Now H4 is already different")???????

What happened the last time that a blue bar was closed? Look at the blue bar that I put an oval around. Hmmm, looks to me like an opportunity for a BOUNCE TRADE setting up if the price comes back down. In fact, how about we put a pending sell stop just below the low of that blue bar. Ohhhhh, very next bar and we're in a SELL CONTINUATION.

If that happened here, M-A-Y-B-E it can happen again on the current bar if it closes as a blue bar???? So set your timer for 5 minutes before that blue bar is due to close so you can come back and re-evaluate. Now you can look at something else for a setup.

(By the way, if you look at the TDI on the blue bar that I marked, you will see that green tweaked above red, then green came back down. But by using the pending sell, you did not need to wait for that next down bar to close and the TDI to be locked to be in the trade.)
Attached Image
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,053
  • Apr 24, 2020 7:40am Apr 24, 2020 7:40am
Quoting lddd
Here. EUR/USD - Daily (Looking at the zoomed out chart it looks like a down trend to me even without counting highs or lows) So i would only look for SHORT opportunities by TMS right? {image} Now H4 is already different ... {image} H1 would be my "trend" i want to follow for setups found on M15 right? {image} Here is M15. No TDI green/red cross for that H1 candle. M15 happened several hours before. So what helps looking at H1/H4/Daily before finding the setup on the time frame i want to execute and plan my trade for? I guess nothing. Also notice...
And following up with your (cropped) EURUSD M15, sure, the TDI bounce right after your red vertical is negated by stoch the wrong direction, but what about the TDI bounce in the oval that I placed? Or what about even place a buy stop above the high of that red RETRACEMENT bar? (You could have taken 15 pips with 10 pips drawdown.)

Seems to me that you are so fixated on not finding any trades that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and YOU DON'T FIND ANY TRADES!
Attached Image
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,054
  • Edited 10:11am Apr 24, 2020 9:46am | Edited 10:11am
Took EUR/USD short on H1 with decreased lot size than normal.

Positive: With the trend, TDI/Stock looks correct to me, RR.
Negative: Out of my normal trading times, Friday.

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Update:

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  • #103,055
  • Apr 24, 2020 9:46am Apr 24, 2020 9:46am
Quoting lddd
Here. EUR/USD - Daily (Looking at the zoomed out chart it looks like a down trend to me even without counting highs or lows) So i would only look for SHORT opportunities by TMS right? {image} Now H4 is already different ... {image} H1 would be my "trend" i want to follow for setups found on M15 right? {image} Here is M15. No TDI green/red cross for that H1 candle. M15 happened several hours before. So what helps looking at H1/H4/Daily before finding the setup on the time frame i want to execute and plan my trade for? I guess nothing. Also notice...
Are the charts refreshed?
If not, here are possible trades you could have traded.
D1
- Blue > lose
- Circles: Did not close above 5EMA, so it can not be consider as a losing trade
- First circle: BE plus spread = No lose
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H1
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M15
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  • #103,056
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:02am Apr 24, 2020 10:02am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Are the charts refreshed?
Depends on what you mean by refreshed. I close the MT4 instance if done with trading for the day.

The charts are showing what was presented to me after opening MT4 this morning.

I did not manually right clicked -> refresh on the charts.
  • #103,057
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:09am Apr 24, 2020 10:09am
Quoting Tekkies
If not, here are possible trades you could have traded.
Thanks for marking all the trade setups. As you know i do not trade the Daily Chart. I posted the Daily Chart for giving a clue about the longer term trend and wanted to know if my analyses of EUR/USD beeing in a down trend for the Daily Chart is correct.

Now if that is correct i would need to know if entering those marked setups for H1 or M15 signals would be valid in regard to the ORIGINAL TMS rules, as this would mean clearly taking setups that are going against the primary trend right?

regards.
  • #103,058
  • Edited 10:33am Apr 24, 2020 10:21am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting DrDave
So you switch to H4 and find that although it is also CLEARLY in a downtrend with 12 HA bars closed belw EMA5, you see an up bar forming--it hasn't even closed yet
Thanks Dave. Thats what i actually wanted to know.

Let me explain. The reason to me i said H4 looks "different" cited the adoption looking at the COMPLETE H4 chart from left to right end.

You say the "last 12 HA bars". So thats exactly the kind of trouble i have with spotting the market condition.

It looks to me there is no clear objective way how to say there is a trend or not. You say last 12 HA bars, so there is no need to look at the complete picture i see from left to right? What if using a 80 inch monitor instead of watching on a small screen not zoomed out, i then maybe would see EUR/USD is in NO trend or different Trend?...
  • #103,059
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:27am Apr 24, 2020 10:27am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for marking all the trade setups. As you know i do not trade the Daily Chart. I posted the Daily Chart for giving a clue about the longer term trend and wanted to know if my analyses of EUR/USD beeing in a down trend for the Daily Chart is correct. Now if that is correct i would need to know if entering those marked setups for H1 or M15 signals would be valid in regard to the ORIGINAL TMS rules, as this would mean clearly taking setups that are going against the primary trend right? regards.
One of the deficiencies in this system is getting fixated on D1 (or W1) as THE direction for all charts below it. Eventually, a D1 down trend is going to reverse. Reversals percolate UP from the lower time frames to the higher ones. If you decide D1 has set your direction and now you are going to look only at H1 and M15, you have no idea when H4 has reversed. And when H4 DOES reverse, D1 is now in danger of reversing as well. (If the reversals have reached only M30 but then the down trend resumes, are you concerned anymore about H4 reversing?) When the reversal DOES reach H4, do you REALLY want to be looking for selling because D1 is down?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #103,060
  • Apr 24, 2020 10:56am Apr 24, 2020 10:56am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks Dave. Thats what i actually wanted to know. Let me explain. The reason to me i said H4 looks "different" cited the adoption looking at the COMPLETE H4 chart from left to right end. You say the "last 12 HA bars". So thats the exactly the kind of trouble i have with spotting the market condition. It looks to me there is no clear objective way how to say there is a trend or not. You say last 12 HA bars, so there is no need to look at the complete picture i see from left to right? What if using a 80 inch monitor instead of watching on...
You don't even need to zoom out for the "big picture". Look at D1. Look at the angle of the EMA5 and if most of the HA bars are on one side of it and mostly the same color. If the EMA is rather flat and there are 2-3 HA bars on a color on one side, then 2-3 are on the other side (and especially if these bars are smaller range than what you were seeing in the prior definite "trend" swing), then its a sideways move.

Look at EURUSD D1 this way. I think you will agree that EMA5 shift3 is pointing down and that there are about 6-7 HA bars BELOW it, and the klst 3-4 before today are DOWN bars. You think that might be all you need to declare a down trend? Now back up to wher the first of those bars down bars closed below EMA5 and place a vertical. Switch to H4. From the vertical going to the right is still the D1 down trend! Follow the H4 HA bars now. You are looking for sell setups. After about 10 bars, an HA up bar closes ABOVE the EMA5. SO now you want to say tha the D1 has reversed to an up trend becasue H4 closed a single bar above EMA5??? You have absolutely no reason to treat that H4 up bar as anything other than a RALLY in the D1 down trend: You need a REASON to say it is a reversal swing, and there is no reason here. You will have your proof of it being a reversal or a rally only after the fact! So whatever price does from this point on H4, you know you CAN'T be selling until price closes back below EMA5, EMA5 gets some "reasonable" down angle, and TDI green x red down with green at some "reasonable" angle. And that does occur. However, price only drops to the prior downswing's bottom before making another rally. And because this is H4, you have some concern that there was not a significant LL made.

Now same drill while the rally progress (It peaked with a LH than the last rally, so down swing looking good.) And then HA bar closes below EMA5, green x red down, etc, etc., and there starts the current H4 down swing that is a down CONTINUATION of the D1 trend. So is D1 in any danger of reversing? (Well, at the moment I am writing this it is, because I have an up HA bar closed above EMA5., and the up bar before it was rather wide ranged.)
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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