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5 years experience of {sam seiden} on supply & demand trading 20 replies

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Sam Seiden Goes DOWN

Quoting GMD
{quote} But this was in 1992, George Soros has a value of $8 billion dollars right now 2020.. Where do you get it was $10 billions of his funds? Or you are saying the funds from investors he managed at that time was $20 billion and he risked %50 of the capital for this one trade?? I don't know mate.. Give us the link where you get that info.
Good question.

This is the reported status on wiki in 2011.

"At its founding, Quantum Fund had $12 million in assets under management, and as of 2011 it had $25 billion, the majority of Soros's overall net worth."

Guess the percentage Soros committed in that one trade idea in 1992.

Do a bit of math to guess the size of his bets to attain his funds growth rate and returns.
Left FF - 20 March 2021
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Good question. This is the reported status on wiki in 2011. "At its founding, Quantum Fund had $12 million in assets under management, and as of 2011 it had $25 billion, the majority of Soros's overall net worth." Guess the percentage Soros committed in that one trade in 1992.
a genuine question:
how is it accounted for?

if a trader has 10k equity,
and open 1 lot GbpUsd position....how much is committed?

is he committing 10x (1000%, the notional value of the trade) his net worth? is he committing 100% net worth ( total equity)? is he committing 50% his net worth ( margin call)?

if the same trader has a 100 pips Stop out point on the same 1 lot entry how much is he really committing?
is it the 1000$ loss ( 10% equity)? is it 1000$ ( 1% of the notional trade size of 1 lot or 100k)?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • Post #503
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  • Edited at 3:58pm Apr 16, 2020 3:31pm | Edited at 3:58pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} a genuine question: how is it accounted for? if a trader has 10k equity, and open 1 lot GbpUsd position....how much is committed? is he committing 10x (1000%, the notional value of the trade) his net worth? is he committing 100% net worth ( total equity)? is he committing 50% his net worth ( margin call)? if the same trader has a 100 pips Stop out point on the same 1 lot entry how much is he really committing? is it the 1000$ loss ( 10% equity)? is it 1000$ ( 1% of the notional trade size of 1 lot or 100k)?
I don't claim to have the right answer so I stand corrected,

Traders like Soros trade without leverage unless he convinced the banks and financiers to back his transaction in loan parcels which is probably unlikely in this case(not sure) where he betted against BOE who themselves raised loans to defend the sterling.

This bet would have gone even larger if BOE did not back off to devalue the sterling. Ofc with gigantic size loans on both sides if it did happen. In short, betting with money they both don't have.

Loans for currency speculators and central banks transactions is outside retail traders paradigm other than the usual brokers leverage facility.
Left FF - 20 March 2021
Quoting CashBox
{quote} So, what you're describing is that Soros uses supply and demand with market sentiment leading it. Meaning...retailers (like redit millennials piling into tesla at the blow off top of the overall stock market up trend) blindly follow a trend and it blows up on them and they don't know why, but supply and demand knows why...if one uses sentiment to be the judge of when it's time to change direction into a potential long term reversal area. The first pic is of one of my Bitcoin entries as trend continues down...while I was trend following....
The devil is in the detail as you marked them. The 2nd stage Dow collapse where you drew the brown box is s/d ala Soros where opportunist speculators jumped in to short sell in droves that caused the overshoot.

Quoting CashBox
.... but supply and demand knows why...if one uses sentiment to be the judge of when it's time to change direction into a potential long term reversal area.
This is the reason why s/d ala Soros strategy cannot be automated unless one can objectively quantify sentiment.
Left FF - 20 March 2021
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The devil is in the detail as you marked them. The 2nd stage Dow collapse where you drew the brown box is s/d ala Soros where opportunist speculators jumped in to short sell in droves that caused the overshoot. {quote} This is the reason why s/d ala Soros strategy cannot be automated unless one can objectively quantify sentiment.
True, it's very difficult to quantify sentiment.

Well, being the cranky hermit, I'm going to get off of here. I've hit my social interaction quota for the day.
Attached Image
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I don't claim to have the right answer so I stand corrected, Traders like Soros trade without leverage unless he convinced the banks and financiers to back his transaction in loan parcels which is probably unlikely in this case(not sure) where he betted against BOE who themselves raised loans to defend the sterling. This bet would have gone even larger if BOE did not back off to devalue the sterling. Ofc with gigantic size loans on both sides if it did happen. In short, betting with money they both don't have. Loans for currency speculators...
Their names are all a Soros or a Buffett need for leverage. All the money follows them...which creates even more leverage.
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  • Edited at 6:59pm Apr 16, 2020 6:39pm | Edited at 6:59pm
Quoting CashBox
{quote} So, what you're describing is that Soros uses supply and demand with market sentiment leading it. Meaning...retailers (like redit millennials piling into tesla at the blow off top of the overall stock market up trend) blindly follow a trend and it blows up on them and they don't know why, but supply and demand knows why...if one uses sentiment to be the judge of when it's time to change direction into a potential long term reversal area. The first pic is of one of my Bitcoin entries as trend continues down...while I was trend following....
Hi Cashbox

I see Supply and Demand as just pools of passive orders that normally sit at highs and lows swings of H1 / M15 bars.
When these are hit, aggressive market orders enter the market causing Acute Liquidity Runs leading to EXHAUSTION.
When you have notched over 20,000 screen hours on a chart, you learn to easily read them on the 1 minute chart.
No need for colour boxes on Daily/ H4 charts.
I am looking for extreme Exhaustion at the edge of order flow on M1. Price has boundary’s it can’t pass on one move.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Cashbox I see Supply and Demand as just pools of passive orders that normally sit at highs and lows swings of H1 / M15 bars. When these are hit, aggressive market orders enter the market causing Acute Liquidity Runs leading to EXHAUSTION. When you have notched over 20,000 screen hours on a chart, you learn to easily read them on the 1 minute chart. No need for colour boxes on Daily/ H4 charts. I am looking for extreme Exhaustion at the edge of order flow on M1. Price has boundary’s it can’t pass on one move. Cheers Rick
RickM, I think I 'met' you on Aussi's thread. Awesome guy. Very supportive. Amazing scalping abilities.

I agree, just using extremes, exhaustion, price action, but using limit orders at my color boxes on the larger charts. Doesn't matter how one does it, just enjoy it and make some money and keep moving.

yep, I've been trading for 14 years so that should put me in the 20,000 hours of screen time club. Only became successful after I stopped looking at what everyone else was doing and decided to put together a notebook of pics of trades that were successful for me that i could do over and over and then narrowed them down to just a few that are the most successful; 90% win rate or better. just keep it simple, make it your own, and master it. Now i work 2 hours a day unless things are trending hard. then i don't sleep, just trade like crazy catching every re-entry, closing some lots and leaving the rest running til the end of the trend.

the first time i demo'd what i do i turned a 10k account into over 600k in 2.5 months, but i had little understanding of leverage/risk and did stupid stuff. that was trading just the gbp/jpy using 15min and 4 hr and it was trending. all things in my favor so i decided to make it harder and tested the system using only the 1min and 5 min charts. tripled the account in 30 days of trading, no losing days, working just 2 hours a day. that was too high stress for me so i don't trade at those time frames except to drill down and take an entry based on my larger time frames. every swing trade starts out as a great scalp trade.

Happy trading. Enjoy your weekend.
COT reports are out. Bullish are in favor. Adding more longs and holding it for longer term. Trade safe.
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File Type: xlsx COTEUR.xlsx   9 KB | 42 downloads
Quoting CashBox
{quote} RickM, I think I 'met' you on Aussi's thread. Awesome guy. Very supportive. Amazing scalping abilities. I agree, just using extremes, exhaustion, price action, but using limit orders at my color boxes on the larger charts. Doesn't matter how one does it, just enjoy it and make some money and keep moving. yep, I've been trading for 14 years so that should put me in the 20,000 hours of screen time club. Only became successful after I stopped looking at what everyone else was doing and decided to put together a notebook of pics of trades that...
and, i should have included: trade in the direction of the higher time frame trend until you're good enough to recognize a counter trend is typically not a swing trade lasting 3 days...more like 3 hours at most, 3 minutes sometimes. trend is 90% of my trading (re-entry areas at confluence), 10% are reversal trades based large time frame supply/demand, err, previous tops/bottoms, that turn into swing trades once confirmed...then i just follow the new trend.

keep in mind, massive trend changes don't just happen. it takes a long time for big money to close out millions or billions worth of trades and accumulate to go the other way while keeping retailers interested in and helping the current trend continue until it's time for the big money to stop being gentle and slam them the other way. think, the Dow30. look at the daily chart. institutions took around 3 weeks to close their longs and accumulate shorts. my system changed to short 3 days before the dump happened and then price tapped back to the box and it was on big time short because the big money protects its trend reversals with huge money. very cool, a lot of fun. so, the big $ had 3 weeks while sucking reddit millennials into the tesla blowoff top while the big money was closing longs during that last spurt upwards and accumulating shorts. it's an amazing thing to watch.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} RickM, I think I 'met' you on Aussi's thread. Awesome guy. Very supportive. Amazing scalping abilities. I agree, just using extremes, exhaustion, price action, but using limit orders at my color boxes on the larger charts. Doesn't matter how one does it, just enjoy it and make some money and keep moving. yep, I've been trading for 14 years so that should put me in the 20,000 hours of screen time club. Only became successful after I stopped looking at what everyone else was doing and decided to put together a notebook of pics of trades that...
Cute story.
  • Post #513
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  • Edited Apr 18, 2020 3:39am Apr 17, 2020 9:54pm | Edited Apr 18, 2020 3:39am
Quoting CashBox
all things in my favor so i decided to make it harder and tested the system using only the 1min and 5 min charts. tripled the account in 30 days of trading, no losing days, working just 2 hours a day. that was too high stress for me so i don't trade at those time frames except to drill down and take an entry based on my larger time frames. every swing trade starts out as a great scalp trade. Happy trading. Enjoy your weekend.
Yep that's what 20,000 hrs screen staring teach us.

One of the things that we think about after a decade or more trading experience under our belt is no more about whether our system work or precision but to rationalise our returns expectation vs the work required. Screen staring all day long becomes an issue that is if the trader has done it for such a long time. As a diligent neophyte I screen stared from Tokyo lunch to NY close in my first 3 yrs in a bucket shop. It affected my sleep and to this day I have sleep problems as a result.

This is the main reason why I created tools as aid to replace chart staring. Scalping 1m charts is history due to practical issues. It naturally changed to swing trades born out of practical need. Scalping skills is used to explore other avenues like coding and math as replacement, it's a natural progression to QA born out of experience, need and expectation change. Same like you, it's 2hrs max today.
Left FF - 20 March 2021
Quoting Techanalyst
COT reports are out. Bullish are in favor. Adding more longs and holding it for longer term. Trade safe. {image} {file}
.
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File Type: xlsx COTEUR.xlsx   11 KB | 59 downloads
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} . {file}

COT on EURUSD! Long? Not clear!

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...b9c81516_b.jpg
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  • Edited at 4:36pm Apr 19, 2020 4:25pm | Edited at 4:36pm
Quoting e-valtrg
{quote} COT on EURUSD! Long? Not clear! https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...b9c81516_b.jpg
Well if not clear for you, refer to your multiple spaghetti indicators on your chart.

Strong monthly imbalance, gained control on monthly TF on EURUSD. It is your choice, you do not need all of those indicators. If you want to use it to look for momentum, you only need one. I would recommend RSI(14), as it is one of the best if not the best to watch for momentum.
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Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Well if not clear for you, refer to your multiple spaghetti indicators on your chart. Strong monthly imbalance, gained control on monthly TF on EURUSD. It is your choice, you do not need all of those indicators. If you want to use it to look for momentum, you only need one. I would recommend RSI(14), as it is one of the best if not the best to watch for momentum. {image}
I don't understand what you mean by "strong monthly imbalance, gained control on monthly TF". Are you suggesting that your blue rectangle signifies demand and that it is likely that price is going to respect it as demand? If not what are you suggesting?
Managing risk is profitable
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I don't understand what you mean by "strong monthly imbalance, gained control on monthly TF". Are you suggesting that your blue rectangle signifies demand and that it is likely that price is going to respect it as demand? If not what are you suggesting?
It's a strong monthly imbalance that gained control. Blue box or not, look at the charts and supply/demand zones.
  • Post #519
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  • Edited at 11:21am Apr 22, 2020 8:42am | Edited at 11:21am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Yep that's what 20,000 hrs screen staring teach us. One of the things that we think about after a decade or more trading experience under our belt is no more about whether our system work or precision but to rationalise our returns expectation vs the work required. Screen staring all day long becomes an issue that is if the trader has done it for such a long time. As a diligent neophyte I screen stared from Tokyo lunch to NY close in my first 3 yrs in a bucket shop. It affected my sleep and to this day I have sleep problems as a result....
This is for all the supply/demand naysayers out there...
Posted pics of trading I did overnight as I did it: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=958722
Quoting moodybot
Supply and demand...support and resistance?? Why did the market reverse!! {image}
It looks like someone or something, maybe a program designed to draw in more money to scoop up later? You posted a daily chart showing to the pip reversal of EURUSD. Its interesting to notice that this happens in all other TF, all the time, to the pip stop and reverse which leaves me wondering the following: if there are thousands of bots, manual traders, institutions, hedge funds, you and I, all with their orders in..... how did price stop to the pip of a previous low / high, gap, S/R etc..., and go the other way, often instantaneously.. one can't help but think is there a program running this?
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