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5 years experience of {sam seiden} on supply & demand trading 21 replies

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Sam Seiden Goes DOWN

Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} It's a strong monthly imbalance that gained control. Blue box or not, look at the charts and supply/demand zones.
Quoting DailyChart
{quote}
What?
For the supply/demand doubters...I'm still trading it at https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12933305

It's not the concept of supply/demand that got Sam into trouble, it's the way he went about making money off of it and possibly partially the co-dependent type of people that need bottle fed that were attracted to him.

I never took his classes, but did see some of his videos after I had developed an indicator to help me with volume/price action that didn't quite give me the full picture I was looking for. That made me dig into s/d a little deeper and it completed my system because I finally realized I was going to waste another 10 years of my life jumping from system to system if I didn't focus on one thing.

It's funny, no one on this forum would say anything bad about trend lines, but trend lines hold and fail at different times just the same as supply/demand holds and fails at different times. It's almost like...if it isn't the perfect holy grail then it's a bad trading concept. well, there is no perfect trader on the forum so why would anyone expect perfection from a trading concept? Seems ignorant.

No, I'm not sticking up for Sam. I don't know him. Don't know the inner workings of his business. Don't care. What I'm saying is you're being unfair to yourself and to trend lines if you hate on supply/demand. (insert dry humor laugh here.) Like anything else in life, if you put the time in and develop one thing then you can make money off of it. I just happened to learn how institutions work with supply and demand and added a couple things to it to help me enter at the right times and do well with it. Also, I'm the most confident losing trader you'll ever know because when a trade doesn't work out...I just reverse the trade using the same lot size, same risk %, etc because I know that based on where I enter my trades, if my stop loss is hit then I'll just go the opposite way and make 1 to 11x what I just lost...it's very low stress because it works for me. Who else has a system that allows them to have a great day if/when their first trade is a loser? It's okay if it doesn't work for you. But don't condemn a concept just because you've never worked with it or don't have the capacity to make your own system.
Quoting CashBox
For the supply/demand doubters...I'm still trading it at https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12933305 It's not the concept of supply/demand that got Sam into trouble, it's the way he went about making money off of it and possibly partially the co-dependent type of people that need bottle fed that were attracted to him. I never took his classes, but did see some of his videos after I had developed an indicator to help me with volume/price action that didn't quite give me the full picture I was looking for. That made me dig into...
I have posted here in this thread many posts defending what you are also defending. The concepts of supply/demand and other concepts have been unfairly demonized by probably those who can't trade any method based on any concept.

But I have to be honest. Your referenced thread is inconsistent and consists of one page so far and really shows little that would convince others that s/d trading as you show in said thread works. It would be better if you posted more to document consistent results. Just saying.
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I have posted here in this thread many posts defending what you are also defending. The concepts of supply/demand and other concepts have been unfairly demonized by probably those who can't trade any method based on any concept. But I have to be honest. Your referenced thread is inconsistent and consists of one page so far and really shows little that would convince others that s/d trading as you show in said thread works. It would be better if you posted more to document consistent results. Just saying.
If you have some time to go back and take a look at today's trading results you'll see i entered short on gj using the 4 hour supply box during Asian session yesterday and just closed that short for 151 pips at the day demand box. one cannot get anymore convincing on the supply/demand concept than that.

As to the thread itself...it's a trade journal. i post as i'm trading. it's sole purpose is for me to write down what i'm thinking because i've found that it helps me keep my mind straight while trading. whether it convinces anyone about supply/demand or anything else isn't the purpose of the thread.

And, of course it's inconsistent...i'm a human...i received a tongue lashing from myself today for a major mistake I made on my secondary entry. it's right there for all the world to see. lol
Anyone can tell you what to do, and maybe you pay them for telling you and then continue to pay them to keep telling you what to do - but are they doing the same as they preach? most likely not.

It's so easy to read something and actually think you understand it - you probably do, but when your mind has a huge impact in the decisions before, during and after the fact - those particular decisions which you think you know how to make, aren't so easy to make or continue with once you've made one, as you'll sometimes go off course and do things, way outside of the parameters of your system or whatever thing you do, because it's the emotional side of it all that you don't get told about when someone wants you to hand over your money.
Quoting GDR3k
Anyone can tell you what to do, and maybe you pay them for telling you and then continue to pay them to keep telling you what to do - but are they doing the same as they preach? most likely not. It's so easy to read something and actually think you understand it - you probably do, but when your mind has a huge impact in the decisions before, during and after the fact - those particular decisions which you think you know how to make, aren't so easy to make or continue with once you've made one, as you'll sometimes go off course and do things, way...
Technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis. Those are the most important in trading. You have to have those, and trust yourself and analysis. If you are in profit overall every month, you are successful, if not, than you should practice more until you reach that goal. Trade safe.
Quoting CashBox
For the supply/demand doubters...I'm still trading it at https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12933305 It's not the concept of supply/demand that got Sam into trouble, it's the way he went about making money off of it and possibly partially the co-dependent type of people that need bottle fed that were attracted to him. I never took his classes, but did see some of his videos after I had developed an indicator to help me with volume/price action that didn't quite give me the full picture I was looking for. That made me dig into...
I like your journal thread that you have very good.

Doesn't matter about Sam, overall, the moral of the story is no one is going to show you or teach you for free. Sam and the school did not have a gun to any of the students head and said "you have to take the course", it is everyone's choice. The thing is, you have a lot of wannabe traders on this channel, that think they know everything but they don't, they are mad because they are not successful in trading, they hate their day jobs, so they come to any threads like this one, to act smart and talk bad about someone that made millions on students. I never met Sam, never took his courses, i just did checked his youtube channel, watched very few videos just to see what is it all about. It is a strategy just like any other in trading. It is up to a trader to adapt and find what is bringing the profit overall on monthly basis. Worst come to worst, Sam and other employee's at his firm, will not do jail time. The worst that will happen is, they will have to pay a big fee. That's it, nothing else. I have been trading forex over ten years now, very successful and full time for the past six years, and from my experience, you will have some wins and some losses. As long as you have more wins and you are in profit every month you are good. After all, trading is all about probabilities, technical, fundamentals and sentiment analysis. There is no Holy Grail and that's that. Trade safe.
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis. Those are the most important in trading. You have to have those, and trust yourself and analysis. If you are in profit overall every month, you are successful, if not, than you should practice more until you reach that goal. Trade safe.
Yeah, I am not disputing what you're saying because we all make our decisions based on what you said which I've put in bold, and maybe a few more things also but...., I was getting at when someone is asking you to pay for his or hers decisions to which you follow - the person selling that probably isn't going to be following their own gospel.

Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Yeah, I am not disputing what you're saying because we all make our decisions based on what you said which I've put in bold, and maybe a few more things also but...., I was getting at when someone is asking you to pay for his or hers decisions to which you follow - the person selling that probably isn't going to be following their own gospel.
BUT, you don't have to pay and have someone as mentor. You can be your own mentor, and learn from your own mistakes. But you can't blame someone for charging because they want to teach. It is everyone's choice. You can't blame the so called mentor for charging, they have a right to do that. BUT you don't have to pay for it, no one is forcing you to. If you are in college and/or university for engineering, one professor can be very good, the other one not so much. It depends on the mentor too. No one is going to teach you, show you for free. Even though you can find a lot of free stuff for trading online, much more than actually have to pay someone to try to teach you and show you, some people turn out to be good traders.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} If you have some time to go back and take a look at today's trading results you'll see i entered short on gj using the 4 hour supply box during Asian session yesterday and just closed that short for 151 pips at the day demand box. one cannot get anymore convincing on the supply/demand concept than that. As to the thread itself...it's a trade journal. i post as i'm trading. it's sole purpose is for me to write down what i'm thinking because i've found that it helps me keep my mind straight while trading. whether it convinces anyone about...
One trade that got you 151 pips. Could be luck as much as anything else. By itself it's not convincing of anything.

You're the one using suggestive phrases such as "supply and demand doubters" as if you're proving something with a few "lucky" trades.

Don't get me wrong. I'm a believer in supply/demand. I just don't think you've done anything with a few trades to demonstrate it one way or the other.
Basically this thread In a nutshell.
Does supply and demand exists in the forex market? Yes
Can you profit from trading supply and demand zones? Yes but trading based on that alone won't yield you a very impressive return. Whether you profit or not from trading these zones doesn't mean they don't exists. The reason is because even once you identify a zone, you have to then decide whether the market will break through the zone, or bounce off from it and respect it again.
Quoting viptrading
Basically this thread In a nutshell. Does supply and demand exists in the forex market? Yes Can you profit from trading supply and demand zones? Yes but trading based on that alone won't yield you a very impressive return. Whether you profit or not from trading these zones doesn't mean they don't exists. The reason is because even once you identify a zone, you have to then decide whether the market will break through the zone, or bounce off from it and respect it again.
Good summary.
If you trade s/d then try this: put your stop a few pips on the other side of the s/d box. if your stop is hit then reverse your trade using the same exact lot size/risk. This is part of my system...i grab more pips on days when my first trade is wrong then on 'perfect' trading days because if price is strong enough to move a pair all the way through to the other side of the zone it will remain strong enough to reward you.
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} BUT, you don't have to pay and have someone as mentor. You can be your own mentor, and learn from your own mistakes. But you can't blame someone for charging because they want to teach. It is everyone's choice. You can't blame the so called mentor for charging, they have a right to do that. BUT you don't have to pay for it, no one is forcing you to. If you are in college and/or university for engineering, one professor can be very good, the other one not so much. It depends on the mentor too. No one is going to teach you, show you...
This game is different to most other things I would say, and I would think you'd agree with me on that....

Given the added psychological aspect of forex, which most people can't get a grip of or control when needed...... Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

Be your own mentor - I fully agree with that because that's what I did.
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} One trade that got you 151 pips. Could be luck as much as anything else. By itself it's not convincing of anything. You're the one using suggestive phrases such as "supply and demand doubters" as if you're proving something with a few "lucky" trades. Don't get me wrong. I'm a believer in supply/demand. I just don't think you've done anything with a few trades to demonstrate it one way or the other.
you're right, there aren't enough trades there yet to show anything of value. I'm trying very hard to remember to post my trading each day as i do it...it's a difficult task to do it live and a habit in the forming.

but it can't be all luck...i put the work in. if you read through my posts i tend to call my trades and the reasoning for them before I take them. In the first post of the trading I did yesterday and today for the 151 I even mentioned that i expected price to come back up to test my entry area one more time...and it did. So, I'd chalk it up more to experience than luck, but in the end, you're right, there has to be some luck because all i can do is perform my trading process properly; including stops, take profits and re-entries. The rest is up to the market. Thankfully I also have the institutions on my side of the trade because they're the ones moving the market for me...i'm just riding their coat tails.

And I still have lots on from the original trade so I'm not all the way out of the current trade.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} you're right, there aren't enough trades there yet to show anything of value. I'm trying very hard to remember to post my trading each day as i do it...it's a difficult task to do it live and a habit in the forming. but it can't be all luck...i put the work in. if you read through my posts i tend to call my trades and the reasoning for them before I take them. In the first post of the trading I did yesterday and today for the 151 I even mentioned that i expected price to come back up to test my entry area one more time...and it did. So,...
I once was a "pure supply/demand trader" during Redsword11 and the PIE thread. I thought the "boxes" and "rectangles" and multi timeframe analysis (MTFA) with entries using smaller time frames in larger time frames was the answer but over time things fizzled. Once I understood that supply/demand wasn't about relying on the "boxes" but rather understanding where buyers/sellers were in the context of supply/demand things began to unfold. Areas of supply/demand or buyers/sellers is only one factor in trading. Selling only where supply was or buying only where demand was is not the answer and over time will be unrewarding, no matter how awesome the big time frame supply/demand looks. Entries on lower time frames is a "suckers" game (no disrespect intended) and is akin to going long or short with MA crosses. This is because sellers (supply)regularly get taken out by buyers and buyers (demand) regularly get taken out by sellers.
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I once was a "pure supply/demand trader" during Redsword11 and the PIE thread. I thought the "boxes" and "rectangles" and multi timeframe analysis (MTFA) with entries using smaller time frames in larger time frames was the answer but over time things fizzled. Once I understood that supply/demand wasn't about relying on the "boxes" but rather understanding where buyers/sellers were in the context of supply/demand things began to unfold. Areas of supply/demand or buyers/sellers is only one factor in trading. Selling only where supply was or...
You're right, S/D needs more than just boxes. Thankfully, I started out with something other than S/D and had the other parts of my system...just needed S/D to complete it. Sentiment is a huge part of why price action does what it does and SD is the magnet that shows the strength of both sentiment and price action. I really enjoy the game of trading and am lucky to no longer be looking for that next indicator or training or mentor. I wish the best to those still searching.
Quoting CashBox
{quote} You're right, S/D needs more than just boxes. Thankfully, I started out with something other than S/D and had the other parts of my system...just needed S/D to complete it. Sentiment is a huge part of why price action does what it does and SD is the magnet that shows the strength of both sentiment and price action. I really enjoy the game of trading and am lucky to no longer be looking for that next indicator or training or mentor. I wish the best to those still searching.
You are doing just fine. You have proven that it works. But you don't really have to prove anything to anyone, as you are not selling or advertising anything. Everyone wants to sit on their behinds and judge. They will always say it is not enough, not enough proof bla,bla,bla. Those are the people that will most likely never make it in trading business. They want someone to hand in everything on a platter. Not going to happen. Thanks for sharing your charts and strategies.
Quoting viptrading
Basically this thread In a nutshell. Does supply and demand exists in the forex market? Yes Can you profit from trading supply and demand zones? Yes but trading based on that alone won't yield you a very impressive return. Whether you profit or not from trading these zones doesn't mean they don't exists. The reason is because even once you identify a zone, you have to then decide whether the market will break through the zone, or bounce off from it and respect it again.
Supply and demand are just pools of passive limit orders in different amounts of density above and below current price. The key issue in trading is how dense will aggressive market orders amount too when they attack these pools.
If the density of these aggressive orders is thin, we will see a bounce. So the main advantage the bankers have and it makes them very rich, they know the exact size and density of these pools before they move. All they need to do to make high profits is to trade towards at these pools with low density orders and less volume knowing price will bounce and pullback.
This requires probably a quarter of the amount of their equity they normally need to create a strong trend.
Why bother creating trends, it’s too costly for them.
However as retail traders, if we study the SHAPE of the M1 grind towards these pools, we should know what will happen before it reaches them as well.
Which is my trading strategy in a nutshell.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Supply and demand are just pools of passive limit orders in different amounts of density above and below current price. The key issue in trading is how dense will aggressive market orders amount too when they attack these pools. If the density of these aggressive orders is thin, we will see a bounce. So the main advantage the bankers have and it makes them very rich, they know the exact size and density of these pools before they move. All they need to do to make high profits is to trade towards at these pools with low density orders and...
Fascinating! I'm curious as to what you mean by "shape", though.

Thank you
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