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Trading Made Simple

  • #102,721
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:30am Apr 17, 2020 9:30am
Someone that read the last several post asked me, "Why not just enter when the M15 bar changes color instead of waiting for the M5 to do a retracement?".
Here is why...

M5 had 8 closed down bars. M15 had 1 closed down bar and the second one would close in 1 more minute; we sold there. (ATR5 was 10 pips)

The protocol says to wait for the M5 rally and place a pending sell below the prior swing low. Price is nowhere near hitting a pending sell down there; we're sitting with nice drawdown instead.
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To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,722
  • Edited 10:03am Apr 17, 2020 9:36am | Edited 10:03am
Look at EURUSD RIGHT NOW! M5/M15.Same kind of sell setup described above. It's plunging on M5 with a pending sell already hit.

EDIT: ATR5 was 5. It went 13 pips beyond the entry before a rally. Also, same setup with M8/M32 if you have a good charting app for custom TFs.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,723
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:40am Apr 17, 2020 9:40am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You showed one setup. Sorry I didn’t get the rules from your words, I am also on the phone right now. Will look at it again, later when I am back home. Send me the exact entry criteria here or by PM, I will strictly follow for a month and report results. I will send some failed trade examples later on. Thanks for your kind help.
I gave the exact entry criteria already. No need for me to copy-paste-send; you can just go read it.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,724
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:24am Apr 17, 2020 10:24am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I gave the exact entry criteria already. No need for me to copy-paste-send; you can just go read it.
Yes but didn’t understand that „protocol“ yet. Will have to read through it again later.

From the charts you did post I could not grasp how to find a valid entry point without any indicator, so you mean manually watching M5/M15 and make decisions on pure price action, so basically what i told entering and exiting the market based on what you see when you look at it.

What i did mean by a system or strategy is a entry setup that can be found in a repeatable way by fixed rules/settings or said in even more easy words by fixed mathematical numbers that can be found/alerted for without even looking at a chart.

if you talk about retracements I guess you mean checking M15 for the „trending direction“ by what ever the last bar color is? And then waiting on M5 for a retracement before entering if price is moving back in what direction that last M15 bar is?
  • #102,725
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:46am Apr 17, 2020 10:46am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes but didn’t understand that „protocol“ yet. Will have to read through it again later. From the charts you did post I could not grasp how to find a valid entry point without any indicator, so you mean manually watching M5/M15 and make decisions on pure price action, so basically what i told entering and exiting the market based on what you see when you look at it. What i did mean by a system or strategy is a entry setup that can be found in a repeatable way by fixed rules/settings or said in even more easy words by fixed mathematical numbers...
Let me repeat whatI already said.

Use HA bars.
Look at M15/M5 side-by-side.
When M15 closes a bar of opposite color, look at M5; it WILL have a minimum of 2 bars of that color, and ofern 3 bars.
Let price continue and return in 5-10 minutes and check M5 again for at least 1 HA bar the opposite color--you have a retracement.
You can now place a pending order on M5 just beyond that last swing. Check M15. If it closes a bar the opposite color (that is, if it also starts a retracement), cancel the pending order and replace the M5 with the H1. Now you have H1/M15 instead of M15/M5.

If M15 did not have a color change before M5 ended its retracement, then you just wait for the pending order to be hit.

This is not rocket science; it is basic 1-2-3 trend continuation trading; Trading 201.
A 9 year old child can do it, and has done it many times.

Now of course, because you do not want to be bothered with S/R, you are going to run into some failures simply because you will sell/buy directly into very close S/R. But, some say S/R does not hold as often or even more often than it does hold, so it's just a crap shoot anyway.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,726
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:52am Apr 17, 2020 10:52am
Quoting lddd
{ if you talk about retracements I guess you mean checking M15 for the „trending direction“ by what ever the last bar color is? And then waiting on M5 for a retracement before entering if price is moving back in what direction that last M15 bar is?
No. I mean when M15 has been in a VERY OBVIOUS MANY HA BARS direction of one color and then has an HA bar of the opposite color, now use that as direction for a potential entry on M5. M15 is either going into a reversal or into a retracement. (But that determination is beyond Trading 201, so you just ignore the fact that those 2 options exist.)
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,727
  • Apr 17, 2020 11:40am Apr 17, 2020 11:40am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} No. I mean when M15 has been in a VERY OBVIOUS MANY HA BARS direction of one color and then has an HA bar of the opposite color, now use that as direction for a potential entry on M5. M15 is either going into a reversal or into a retracement. (But that determination is beyond Trading 201, so you just ignore the fact that those 2 options exist.)
Ok. Probably have to read through it again a few more times until I fully understand what you mean.

1.) If you say to wait for M15 has formed many HA bars of one color, this sounds a bit subjective to me again :-) What is „many“ three, five or more like 500?

2.) This approach of trading still leaves open the questions to me of how much and between what times to trade. I could be sitting 8 hours each day watching M5/M15 next to each other and could end up taking only a pre defined fixed amount of setups for that time per day or I could end up taking just every setup there is. I could take 1 setup in 3 years, win that one, and call my self a long time profitable Trader while never doing a second trade.

A robot here would just follow the rules and enter a trade when ever a setup presents it self and after some hundreds of trades over some years you could say ok this might be profitable in the long run, how can you as that entering manually the market if you maybe leave out 100 of those setups which might had the impact of making that „strategy“ a loser instead of a winning one?

Do you have at least a backtest or so for this approach and know that it will be profitable if entering every setup for let’s say the last half year?

You asked Emmanuel for similar proofs I think.

Anyways thanks for he help so far Dave.
  • #102,728
  • Apr 17, 2020 12:18pm Apr 17, 2020 12:18pm
https://zenothestoic.com/2018/04/25/...sing-nonsense/
  • #102,729
  • Apr 17, 2020 12:48pm Apr 17, 2020 12:48pm
Quoting lddd
https://zenothestoic.com/2018/04/25/...sing-nonsense/
Right off the bat, clearly, this was written by an idiot.
Technical analysis
Quote
(called charting by some) is supposed to give stock market predictions.
Technical analysis is neither supposed to nor meant to PREDICT anything.
He at least does have some factual information.
Quote
No chart will tell you when or if the market will go up or down. Any market. Any chart.

DUH!
Movements of financial markets reflect the actions of humans and algorithms that were designed by humans, leading to price movement over time reflecting human behavior. Humans are creatures of habit and cycles, Just as a working person TENDS to do THE SAME PATTERN of behavior each work day--arising within a narrow time window, departing for the workplace within another time window, arriving at the workplace withing another time window, etc., etc.--a technical analysis of his movements over time reveals REPEATING PATTERNS. From these patterns one can determine a PROBABILITY of some events. For example, if 95% of the sampled days showed a departure time of between 6:30 and 7:00, then there is high PROBABILITY that any workday chosen in the "near" future will have the person departing with the same time window. This is not a prediction!

This same type of technical analysis can be applied to financial markets to provide PROBABILITIES of specific events occurring within specified windows.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,730
  • Apr 17, 2020 1:29pm Apr 17, 2020 1:29pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Right off the bat, clearly, this was written by an idiot. Technical analysis{quote} Technical analysis is neither supposed to nor meant to PREDICT anything. He at least does have some factual information. {quote} DUH! Movements of financial markets reflect the actions of humans and algorithms that were designed by humans, leading to price movement over time reflecting human behavior. Humans are creatures of habit and cycles, Just as a working person TENDS to do THE SAME PATTERN of behavior each work day--arising...
Well i didn’t want to say I think he is right but true is there is no evidence technical analyses works.

Otherwise if you talk about probabilities there must be a statistical proof that what ever pattern did at least resulted in a percentage positive outcome.

What pattern you have that performed 51% of the time in let’s say the last few hundreds of years of data since the forex market as example exists?

Can you show me that? ;-)
  • #102,731
  • Apr 17, 2020 1:38pm Apr 17, 2020 1:38pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well i didn’t want to say I think he is right but true is there is no evidence technical analyses works. Otherwise if you talk about probabilities there must be a statistical proof that what ever pattern did at least resulted in a percentage positive outcome. What pattern you have that performed 51% of the time in let’s say the last few hundreds of years of data since the forex market as example exists? Can you show me that? ;-)
Have you heard of Robert Prechter? Go do some research on the work he has done on the PROBABILITIES of pattern B occurring after pattern A.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,732
  • Apr 17, 2020 1:40pm Apr 17, 2020 1:40pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Have you heard of Robert Prechter? Go do some research on the work he has done on the PROBABILITIES of pattern B occurring after pattern A.
Thanks I will do.
  • #102,733
  • Apr 17, 2020 1:46pm Apr 17, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well i didn’t want to say I think he is right but true is there is no evidence technical analyses works. Otherwise if you talk about probabilities there must be a statistical proof that what ever pattern did at least resulted in a percentage positive outcome. What pattern you have that performed 51% of the time in let’s say the last few hundreds of years of data since the forex market as example exists? Can you show me that? ;-)
I don't have the study, but I read a report of seasonal buying of orange contracts that over a period of 20 consecutive years, simply buying on the first market day of some specific month and selling on the last market day of some specific month resulted in 3 losing years and 17 winning years.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #102,734
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:32pm Apr 17, 2020 2:32pm
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I don't have the study, but I read a report of seasonal buying of orange contracts that over a period of 20 consecutive years, simply buying on the first market day of some specific month and selling on the last market day of some specific month resulted in 3 losing years and 17 winning years.
:-) Still no guarantee that it will be the same for the next 20 years.

I had a quick research about Robert Prechter. His beliefs seems to be based on the Elliot Wave Theory which is also no proven science and has its critics.

Well. So if you talk about probabilities, yes maybe but like said it doesn’t makes sense to me if you cannot benefit from these probabilities because they can be only find in a non- objective way.

For example (b) is more likely to happen over (a) if you can’t even find a objective way how to declare what exact point (a) will be by watching a chart in a subjective way like drawing a trend line, scrolling out/in, changing the time frame. This will all totally have an impact of what Point A is to trader 1 but maybe Trader 2 is drawing that Point A somewhere complete different to what Trader 1 did, so that the self fulfilling prophecy of many individual market anticipates looks somehow irrelevant to me.
  • #102,735
  • Apr 17, 2020 4:38pm Apr 17, 2020 4:38pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Don't be stupid Emmanuel. Post 102,685: I cant seem to get it to work. It is working now. ---- Read what is asked. When a person ask "Can you drive a car" the answer is "Yes, I can" / "No, I can not" You don't give a detail explanation or demonstration how you do it.

Tekkies

look you idiot, read that jan.forex post again below.

I did not find any issue with his mq4 file when I compiled it.

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and you posted a complied version but you said that is ( not tested)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Tekkies #102,697 18-4-2020 7-32-57 am.png Size: 34 KB

why post a compiled version when you have not tested that?
you are your usual self, rash in replying and have not done the tests and make sure that work properly in live market. people will lose more money with your nonsense.

did Big E left a void?
did Emmanuel filled that void?

#76,129 click link below
<>
BigE have left a void behind that members need to full on their own. Emmanuel filled that void and did it very good. ...

<>
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #102,736
  • Apr 17, 2020 4:53pm Apr 17, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting eelfranz
Your safest trades will always be when green crosses red and you enter on candle 1 or 2... odds are in your favor. Why? Because I'm expecting 3-8 candles... which is average... With bounce trades the odds are lower for your success... but it still works. When wanting to enter a TDI trade... take a moment first to observe basic 4x things... like: How close am I to the previous high or lo Am I in an uptrend or downtrend.. short & long term... Am I in or close to a consolidation area Are the previous candles small... Look at the candles on the last...
In recent weeks I get more PMs than usual and many are from members who have not posted in this thread. I think the lockdown has some effect on people looking for something to do while under 'stay at home' orders and some re-started to read Forex Factory again after been away for a few years.

The FAQ this week is Post#647 above.

Some are asking what are 'big candles', 'small candles', 'previous candles are small', etc. because what Big E wrote in his post is rather vague.

I am afraid there is no one single answer to define what are 'big candles', 'small candles', 'previous candles are small'.

I have a few such big and small candles which I look for on my charts when I am looking from trade setups in all timeframes.

Below is just one of the few. Keep It Simple, know just a few and learn them well and you will spot them easily.

POP-Gun

I did not create that name, its Jeffery Kennedy from Elliot Wave International.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10645614

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...95#post6779095


..more to come, and you can count how many using your ten fingers, anything more that 10 is too many.

so stay tuned! ...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #102,737
  • Apr 17, 2020 4:57pm Apr 17, 2020 4:57pm
Example of a POP Gun ... M15

but it is the same in H1, H4 and D1...

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10645614

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...75#post6179675
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #102,738
  • Apr 17, 2020 5:01pm Apr 17, 2020 5:01pm
If you need help with an indicator for Pop Gun and Inside Bar,

here is one by Phylo

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post10581702
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #102,739
  • Apr 17, 2020 5:18pm Apr 17, 2020 5:18pm
TMS_V19 Q&A


Few PMs from members who are still not sure about the ATR PIP value information.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS_V19 ATR information 18-4-2020 8-11-16 am.png Size: 133 KB



go back to Post#102,555 for the explanation.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12871402

Next week, I will post live trades examples and explain how I use the ATR(100) D1 when I trade.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #102,740
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:29pm Apr 17, 2020 10:29pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Tekkies look you idiot, read that jan.forex post again below. I did not find any issue with his mq4 file when I compiled it. {image} and you posted a complied version but you said that is ( not tested) {image} why post a compiled version when you have not tested that? you are your usual self, rash in replying and have not done the tests and make sure that work properly in live market. people will lose more money with your nonsense. did Big E left a void? did Emmanuel filled that void? #76,129...
"I did not find any issue with his mq4 file when I compiled it."
So, why did you not posted the compiled version?
Instead you made some snotty remarks about TDI.
-----
Seeing that you flap lips about testing the compiled version.
What exactly must be tested?
-----
"did Emmanuel filled that void"
Yep, you surely did, in the wrong direction.
Now you are starting again with pop gun. What is next on the menu? Steam values or Inside Bar?
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