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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #513,381
  • Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:13am Mar 7, 2020 4:06pm | Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:13am
no rhyme or reason
no continuation of analyst ,black box team please explain ?
Let us know how long you been in this game ,
FF ,listen to this type video with caution.Sketching on the fly -many markets.Over use of marker pen is a crime all on its own.
Are you commercial?
Who are the people you're now chatting to directly in these webinars ?are they paid up subscribers you're picking up via forum posts.
or
are you just chatting to yourself for effect?

Quoting morfes2
https://youtu.be/Nf7UIMEVGno
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,382
  • Mar 7, 2020 4:07pm Mar 7, 2020 4:07pm
Im sorry I question the motives
Most people can get the concepts in a very short space of time(few years) then chit chat to the newbies
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,383
  • Mar 7, 2020 4:16pm Mar 7, 2020 4:16pm
you don't need that heat map every day ,it dose look cool tho
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,384
  • Mar 7, 2020 4:21pm Mar 7, 2020 4:21pm
your looking for someone who is very specific in their work ,no wishy washy allowed, no comments allowed without fully explained reasoning
then often right
Ive read these forums well over decade ,I've seen it all....
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,385
  • Edited Mar 8, 2020 12:21am Mar 7, 2020 6:34pm | Edited Mar 8, 2020 12:21am
US numbers will sky rocket ,they haven't been testing ,have not attempted any containment until recently ,
it's too late now they had a good chance.
Apparently CDC wanted to create their own gold standard test and not the WHO recommend test.
The CDC test was too complex attempting to detect 3 different known virus.The test they made has failed.
They also made the conditions for the test very strict ,such as only people who travelled.
But really I think the delay stemmed from the White House, with the need to protect economic activity and the markets.
White House decided to roll the dice imo

They only just started larger scale testing in the past couple days.I'm not sure if its free to all which it should be.

They have 19 deaths now- only a week ago they had none as confirmed by Trump himself...he rocks
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,386
  • Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:20am Mar 7, 2020 6:47pm | Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:20am
You have to realise its exponential rise coming{with no action of containment}
To know how fast it can spread with no herd immunity,its starts low numbers then very fast rise.
If you had 1p day one and doubled it every day you have over 5mil in 30 days

This has a R0 of 3-4 minimum ,when an average flu type is just over 1.(say 1.28 = 9 case in 10 weeks) R0 can only go up if you play with numbers going back over 10 weeks.*R0 can change on many factors like for instance the weather.Its not known if this is seasonal.
100k confirmed infections today with extreme measures to contain in 10 weeks .See the difference 10 weeks on R03 to R04 spread.
If considerably more people are infected then that makes it even more infectious, and harder to contain on current data.
Do you really believe someone can have it and not even know? when it puts 20% into critical on the confirmed numbers.(10% if you double ? infections)

Remember the majority of this data comes from completely un trustworthy china ,who say numbers dropping right now.Their likely downplay numbers based on history.
Italy data is terrible somehow.

1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy
- Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care
- Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died
Nicola Zingaretti,leader of Italy's Democratic Party, tested positive to coronavirus


The flu incubate's for a couple days ,this thing maybe up to 14 or more -but defiantly much higher when your infectious ,it's very hard to manage-theres a time delay to seeing the infected
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,387
  • Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:11am Mar 7, 2020 7:09pm | Edited Mar 8, 2020 4:11am
I think the FED will act again in the face of the explosion in numbers well before BOE ,besides they have more room to move.
The problem in all this is theres a supply and demand shock playing out,I can only guess thats why it never worked last week.
I.E china is shut -supply chains broken =supply
no ones shopping -no ones flying etc =demand.

The jobs number Friday is a lagging indicator ,this is why it never moved the market like you'd think.
The US will shut down cities- states- just like Italy or anywhere else

"Coronavirus: Northern Italy to quarantine 16 million people"
Italy's prime minister has said at least 16 million people are in mandatory quarantine in Lombardy region and also in 14 provinces
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,388
  • Mar 7, 2020 11:30pm Mar 7, 2020 11:30pm
if i will be ignoring the technical analysis and Elliott analysis for a moment and only focus on history and how it repeat itself this chart can show us many things
purple is end of each month and white is the middle of each month. yellow circles are the dates between 6th to 8th

we say how cable rise sharply last week but hold on ! this only happen in 1st week of march ! what are they gonna do in the next 4 weeks ! ???

notice there is always a bottom or top in middle of each month + the yellow circles shows that when we get a sharp move in 1st week it always go apposite in the 2nd week.

i only checked the last 3 months history and we should put in our mind that history might repeat itself
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  • #513,389
  • Edited 4:14am Mar 8, 2020 4:00am | Edited 4:14am
Quoting msniper
if i will be ignoring the technical analysis and Elliott analysis for a moment and only focus on history and how it repeat itself this chart can show us many things purple is end of each month and white is the middle of each month. yellow circles are the dates between 6th to 8th we say how cable rise sharply last week but hold on ! this only happen in 1st week of march ! what are they gonna do in the next 4 weeks ! ??? notice there is always a bottom or top in middle of each month + the yellow circles shows that when we get a sharp move in 1st week...

I think market conditions (which is uncertain atm) will dictate where price goes. Based on my analysis I'm now expecting a retrace to the 1.2840 -1.2860 area, then a bounce back up to 1.3100, that's also how I'm going to trade it.

Trade safe.
Guz
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Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #513,390
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:02am Mar 8, 2020 5:02am
close the gap on cable, I've seen crazy moves to close gaps
$ can only retrace next week until it hits support.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,391
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:24am Mar 8, 2020 5:24am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} I think market conditions (which is uncertain atm) will dictate where price goes. Based on my analysis I'm now expecting a retrace to the 1.2840 -1.2860 area, then a bounce back up to 1.3100, that's also how I'm going to trade it. Trade safe. Guz {image}
Let see... I think its time to retrace... Monday is my confirmation. I will out of market until monday.
  • #513,392
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:51am Mar 8, 2020 5:51am
From bullish to bearish

https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...4#post12784214

Look for some short trades now

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #513,393
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:41am Mar 8, 2020 7:41am
Quoting Bones
close the gap on cable, I've seen crazy moves to close gaps $ can only retrace next week until it hits support. {image}
i honestly going to watch GBPUSD retracement this week

if it happen sharply then i will keep holding short and for sure we will break 1.2725 this time

but

if the retracement was very slow and in a sloppy style then it will indicate we are in just normal correction before heading up again to 1.35 and 1.39
  • #513,394
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:43am Mar 8, 2020 7:43am
Quoting kuroro001
From bullish to bearish https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...4#post12784214 Look for some short trades now {image}
do u mean ur chart say short between 1.34 to 1.35 ?or u mean short even 1.31 and 1.32 ?

and by the way nice trading journal u have there first time i read it

whats the different between forexfactory and energyexch ? its same site but different design !
  • #513,395
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:56am Mar 8, 2020 7:56am
It won't break that level ,I'm wondering if it will retrace at all beyond 970
3 soldiers on the daily ,weekly is true
Ive even given a firm fundamental outlook ,US =has not been testing- their infected is way higher ,initial spike for sure once the cogs start turning.

Quoting msniper
{quote} i honestly going to watch GBPUSD retracement this week if it happen sharply then i will keep holding short and for sure we will break 1.2725 this time but if the retracement was very slow and in a sloppy style then it will indicate we are in just normal correction before heading up again to 1.35 and 1.39
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,396
  • Mar 8, 2020 8:17am Mar 8, 2020 8:17am
Quoting msniper
{quote} do u mean ur chart say short between 1.34 to 1.35 ?or u mean short even 1.31 and 1.32 ? and by the way nice trading journal u have there first time i read it whats the different between forexfactory and energyexch ? its same site but different design !
It means whenever the system prints high reading, its a short setup to look for. The left scale is only for GBP.
I look at how high/low is the reading. Right now its high, can go higher yes, but it tells me to look for short (then i look at the PA or some divergence and hit the sell button)

Thanks for the journal. I use it to keep track of my analysis

And for your last question yes they are the same, its just that forexfactory splitted assets (forex, crypto, commodities)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #513,397
  • Mar 8, 2020 8:27am Mar 8, 2020 8:27am
Quoting Bones
US numbers will sky rocket ,they haven't been testing ,have not attempted any containment until recently , it's too late now they had a good chance. Apparently CDC wanted to create their own gold standard test and not the WHO recommend test. The CDC test was too complex attempting to detect 3 different known virus.The test they made has failed. They also made the conditions for the test very strict ,such as only people who travelled. But really I think the delay stemmed from the White House, with the need to protect economic activity and the markets....

You are 100% correct about the state of testing. I am an emergency physician in the US and am shocked by there being NO tests available. Even though Pence and Trump tell the people there are tests and it is contained - the guidance we hve been receiving when we have a high risk patient is still just to discharge them back to the community. This infection is rampant in the US without ANY containment nor testing provided to us to diagnose.
Dr. C
  • #513,398
  • Mar 8, 2020 9:10am Mar 8, 2020 9:10am
right ,I guess the other thing is obvious case rising which takes a bit of time.So no testing kits yet?
Thanks for info



Quoting cvcamper
{quote} You are 100% correct about the state of testing. I am an emergency physician in the US and am shocked by there being NO tests available. Even though Pence and Trump tell the people there are tests and it is contained - the guidance we hve been receiving when we have a high risk patient is still just to discharge them back to the community. This infection is rampant in the US without ANY containment nor testing provided to us to diagnose.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #513,399
  • Mar 8, 2020 10:46am Mar 8, 2020 10:46am
Quoting OnlineAddict
This thread would be boring without Moty, stop jumping on him!
Ya tell them man !!

Also tell us when 1.45
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #513,400
  • Mar 8, 2020 1:23pm Mar 8, 2020 1:23pm
#GBPUSD / Weekly, Daily & H4
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