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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #511,221
  • Edited 1:15pm Feb 7, 2020 12:59pm | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting Bones
I can promise you this it cannot go up , also the weekly will close bearish that's what I said yesterday ,I know its not in the books but you can read before the close When the weekly is closed your know that advise is right =it can be done-Ive seen it done by a professional or how did I forecast it read it on the fly ,not always clear but... there's info in that chart midway its oversold ,could retrace next week ,but probably not {quote}
i hope we are in the right direction...


oversold and oversold, now vikinsa is my fib expert :-) but we did on the monthly today pass 0.618, lets see how this develops.

on the monthly the rsi is only at below 50... so neutral at monthly..
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  • #511,222
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:18pm Feb 7, 2020 1:18pm
Anticipated low this February is 1.28xx and expected high is 1.34xx. February in summary is expected to end bullish. This pair humiliated me in 2019 but battle ready for you this 2020. Bring it on Pound!
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,223
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:23pm Feb 7, 2020 1:23pm
Quoting Georginson
Anticipated low this February is 1.28xx and expected high is 1.34xx. February in summary is expected to end bullish. This pair humiliated me in 2019 but battle ready for you this 2020. Bring it on Pound!
i am not saying against, but why bullish for February? Any fundamental facts her or betting on weaker dollar,
  • #511,224
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:41pm Feb 7, 2020 1:41pm
if look monthly chart nothing good espesially hammer candle -look like reverse
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  • #511,225
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:44pm Feb 7, 2020 1:44pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} i am not saying against, but why bullish for February? Any fundamental facts her or betting on weaker dollar,
I trade the chart on research of past price (monthly and yearly behavior). From 2010 - 2019, this pair has moved above and below the opening price of the year by 250 pips or more. This year opened at 1.3208 and has sold to 1.2889 being 319 pips below, the up move will still be seen at 1.3458 (1.3208 + 250 pips)

The reason I stated February to end bullish is that price moved to low from opening without touching the closing price of January (1.3207), 95% of the times this happens, price always close in the opposite direction of where it first goes to. Secondly, January range was very minimal which makes a case for a volatile range of around 500-700pips this February. Should this low of 1.28xx hold and you can add possible expected range of 500-700 pips to it, which gives you 1.34xx.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,226
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:51pm Feb 7, 2020 1:51pm
Quoting fontu
there medium to big indecision remain intact as price not enough bounced nor correct enough to . so bull or spike remain intact till 2960 , 2904 immediate, medium 2767 and late 2196 not cleared . so price stil ranges between 3340 to 2500 ,huge risks to cover before play smooth next !! take care the die-hard H4 in play for bull , waiting 2976 play to try bull action if possible. as of weekly tf , still NR4 burst up as fake out & now this weekly NR7 not in the smallest ranges so not effective , pa as per NR4 , decision going in favor the direction...
So just play the immediate pa, next medium and late may to clear.
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #511,227
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:09pm Feb 7, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I trade the chart on research of past price (monthly and yearly behavior). From 2010 - 2019, this pair has moved above and below the opening price of the year by 250 pips or more. This year opened at 1.3208 and has sold to 1.2889 being 319 pips below, the up move will still be seen at 1.3458 (1.3208 + 250 pips) The reason I stated February to end bullish is that price moved to low from opening without touching the closing price of January (1.3207), 95% of the times this happens, price always close in the opposite direction of where it first...
ok ok, thanks. Just that we had a 320 pips move just this week. What is your stats saying about pre and after brexit vote 2016? Newbie in forex but realise this pair has always been this volatile.. on the monthly the pate past years atr is actually pretty low/similar compared to example 2003-2008
  • #511,228
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:26pm Feb 7, 2020 2:26pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} ok ok, thanks. Just that we had a 320 pips move just this week. What is your stats saying about pre and after brexit vote 2016? Newbie in forex but realise this pair has always been this volatile.. on the monthly the pate past years atr is actually pretty low/similar compared to example 2003-2008
Average monthly range of this pair since post global financial crisis in 2008-2009 is 550 pips. The pair has yearly average range of 1600 pips excluding brexit year 2016. Generally forex volatility has reduced after global financial crisis. Expect between 900 - 1050 pips range in the first 5 months of the year, which is usually followed up by minimum of 300 pips reversal before trend continuation or absolute reversal.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #511,229
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:02pm Feb 7, 2020 3:02pm
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yes yes yes
  • #511,230
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:32pm Feb 7, 2020 3:32pm
Quoting Moty
{image} {image}
”Betting” against that. Last weekend they made some not great uk statements in the weekend, don’t expect anything great these days neither..

keeping small shorts through the weekend.. belive this will close now below 2900...
  • #511,231
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:40pm Feb 7, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting Tekin
{quote} İs it about to break for a huge drop {image}
Very close but not hit yet
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  • #511,232
  • Edited 5:28pm Feb 7, 2020 4:32pm | Edited 5:28pm
Weekly is closed ,I'm going to use the words no way is it going up next at least one more ,the monthly is evening star ,read it already- big money is short -only something not known by man can change it
The most bullish idea I can think of is go test that line but really I don't believe that at all

*market has changed from range to trend
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,233
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:40pm Feb 7, 2020 4:40pm
so weak and wrong

quote=Georginson;12743979]{quote} I trade the chart on research of past price (monthly and yearly behavior). From 2010 - 2019, this pair has moved above and below the opening price of the year by 250 pips or more. This year opened at 1.3208 and has sold to 1.2889 being 319 pips below, the up move will still be seen at 1.3458 (1.3208 + 250 pips) The reason I stated February to end bullish is that price moved to low from opening without touching the closing price of January (1.3207), 95% of the times this happens, price always close in the opposite direction of where it first goes to. Secondly, January range was very minimal which makes a case for a volatile range of around 500-700pips this February. Should this low of 1.28xx hold and you can add possible expected range of 500-700 pips to it, which gives you 1.34xx.[/quote]
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,234
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:42pm Feb 7, 2020 4:42pm
Your monthly looks better than mine even ,if you fill the candles we can see.
It gapped down in Jan then gapped down on feb open ,with gaps left open

Quoting krst8
We are also about now to take out the december candle that was very bullish. There is now nothing below to catch this than the weekly average as said at 2700... as observed the weekly average and the 52 months average is about the same level around those low 2700 level... {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,235
  • Edited 5:40pm Feb 7, 2020 4:52pm | Edited 5:40pm
ultimately I think it will go there then there -gaps left open, bullish looking yearly but locked in range very high TF
also fits a fundamental view around a Brexit deal where negotiations are likely to be a bearish situ + the virus will not disappear to next Q based on modelling data on what we know already...
d1 wave on the way down involved you can check coreg =very useful
for now I'm only interested in the down
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #511,236
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:37pm Feb 7, 2020 6:37pm
This move last days have brought the retail sentiment even more long, ig is about 10% up for the week up to over 70%, and also forex factory index is going up towards long.

However, i want to ask some better/experince traders here, regarding the Oanda order book data?!

Looking at cumulative open orders (image left) it appears to be a "nasty" amount of long orders here waiting to get hit (i would assume long stops?). This has been the case for the whole day. Is this not a classic sign of large liquidity zone and hence we should be dropping further down atleast into this zone?
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  • #511,237
  • Feb 7, 2020 6:49pm Feb 7, 2020 6:49pm
Quoting krst8
This move last days have brought the retail sentiment even more long, ig is about 10% up for the week up to over 70%, and also forex factory index is going up towards long. However, i want to ask some better/experince traders here, regarding the Oanda order book data?! Looking at cumulative open orders (image left) it appears to be a "nasty" amount of long orders here waiting to get hit (i would assume long stops?). This has been the case for the whole day. Is this not a classic sign of large liquidity zone and hence we should be dropping further...
i’m less experience from all of us around here..
but 1 thing i know..
don’t trust that hole up there
keep adding position for that target
i have posting before..
pretend the hole not there then trading..
don’t trust that hole,just a market trap..
it will close when lot of traders start to forget about it
same we have around 2770..
nice weekends all
don’t forget keep wear your mask
bear outbreak..
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #511,238
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:12pm Feb 7, 2020 7:12pm
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  • #511,239
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:32pm Feb 7, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting akim0895
{quote} i’m less experience from all of us around here.. but 1 thing i know.. don’t trust that hole up there keep adding position for that target i have posting before.. pretend the hole not there then trading.. don’t trust that hole,just a market trap.. it will close when lot of traders start to forget about it same we have around 2770.. nice weekends all don’t forget keep wear your mask bear outbreak..

hehe agree akim. I got confused during my first weeks of traiding of that gap in November at 2770, as you say still open by closing a long trade as i got scared :-)... so stoped caring about gaps closing but think they can sometimes say something about the direction..
  • #511,240
  • Feb 7, 2020 7:55pm Feb 7, 2020 7:55pm
Quoting knkie
{quote} \ lets see how far up it will go... ideally id like it to go back up to 2917-ish pending sell @ 2894 in case it collapses
Fridays, it is one way traffic. Never counter... I got burnt few times, lessons learnt, now not doing.

Yesterday, I made my money early in asia and frankfurt, and never traded in NY
Intraday only.
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