Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market is generally disposed southward but has seen a period of consolidation since August 2019. On the monthly time frame, the 0.70610/0.66600 zone has served as a significant channel for market operation since May 2019. In January 2020, a bearish candlestick was printed from around the upper boundary of the channel and it nestled only a few pips shy of the lower boundary. We should expect some sideways or pullback of market operation in the 0.66600 area as it is a significant horizontal support.

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On the weekly time frame, price action was in a period of consolidation but recently has disposed southward. Last week, the market printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick. Presently, market operation is located a few pips above the 0.66600 horizontal support (green), which is significant on the monthly time frame, and we can expect a sideways or northward pullback of price action in the early part of this week.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame is bearish but is parabolic in nature; we can expect a northward pullback to an area of value in the early part of this week. An initial area we may expect price action to pull back to is the 0.67620 area (magenta). Should the area be breached northward, we may see the 0.68450 area (purple) exposed before a southward turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPAUD has disposed northward since August 2019. On the monthly time frame, a bullish continuation candlestick was printed in January after a sideways of market operation in November and December 2019. Presently, market operation is at the 1.97420 horizontal resistance area.

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On the weekly time frame technicals still favour a bullish mode. Market operation has moved above an outer rising trendline (red) to respect an inner rising trendline (blue), indicating an increase in bullish momentum. However, it is presently located around a horizontal resistance and is too far from the mean. Therefore, we may have a southward pullback of price action in the early part of this week.

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On the daily time frame, price action has moved too far from an active rising trendline (magenta) and is technically due for a retest or pullback.



A parabolic display of recent price action can be seen on the H4 time frame and is too far from a minor support trendline (black). Apparently, a southward pullback or corrective action is imminent.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward operation of the GBPUSD market hit a bottom in August 2019. Since then the market has disposed northward in a technical correction. On the monthly time frame, the bullish print of October 2019 failed to have a follow-up in November, which saw an ambivalent candlestick print. Also the bullish print that followed in December was not emphatic as bears exerted some pressure, resulting in a top shadow. In January 2020, the market printed an ambivalent or doji-like candlestick. This print of an ambivalent candlestick is symptomatic of a decline in bullish influence or a slowdown of bullish momentum and we may expect an increase in bearish pressure in February.

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On the weekly time frame, between six and three weeks ago, market operation, which had disposed northward, made a southward retracement to the 1.29690 horizontal support area. Since then, a northward mode has kicked in; but the 1.32980 horizontal resistance area is technically an immediate challenge for bulls.

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Recent order flow and price action on the daily time frame indicate the likelihood of further northward move but the 1.33360 horizontal resistance area should be watched for potential challenge to bulls.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market was disposed southward for quite a long while in 2019 but, recently, it has been in consolidation. On the monthly time frame, market operation in the past seven months has been within the 1.13070/1.08980 zone. In January, the market printed a bearish candlestick with a bottom shadow within the middle of the zone. This indicates that bulls were giving bears some fight and we can expect more bullish pressure in the early part of February.

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The weekly time frame shows a EURUSD market in consolidation. Last week, the market printed a bottom tailed bullish candlestick in opposition to the bearish candlestick printed a week earlier. The bottom tail indicates that we can expect bulls to be more influential than bears in the interim. The 1.11820 area is a horizontal resistance, which potentially may hinder a bullish drive and is likely to yield a southward turnaround should price action get there.

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The daily time frame shows the EURUSD price action in a bullish mode within a consolidation phase. Since October 2019, price action has been operating within a horizontal channel spanning the 1.09960/1.12210 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines). Last week Thursday, bulls moved price action from the lower boundary of the channel, and it was followed up with a strong bullish drive on Friday. There is potential for further bullish move to at least the 1.11760 horizontal resistance area. At any rate, any bullish drive is likely to be temporary. I will only be interested in a southward turnaround as the longer-term technical outlook favours bears.

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The H4 time frame shows a bullish momentum of price action within a consolidation phase. Technically, we may see price action go as far as the 1.11670 minor horizontal resistance area before a southward turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Just sharing

One of the things I do during the first two days of the week is to review the weekly analyses I made on Sunday and see how the markets are behaving. As I rarely trade on Monday, I take a second look at my analyses, review the charts and make any necessary update or adjustments before positioning myself for any feasible setups on the daily or H4 time frame.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market is disposed southward. On the monthly time frame, market operation broke below a horizontal support zone around the 0.67620 area (magenta) in January. The 0.64000 area (purple) is technically the next significant horizontal support zone.

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The weekly time frame shows recent price action operating within a falling channel (blue). Nine weeks ago, bulls overshot the channel resistance trendline and had a follow-up for two weeks before bears seized the initiative for a southward drive that returned price action to within the falling channel two weeks ago. Last week, a bearish pinbar was printed at the minor horizontal support area around 0.66730, indicating bears are still influential in the market.

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The location of price action on the daily time frame is far from the mean and we may see a northward pullback, perhaps to retest the broken down previous horizontal support area around 0.67100, before a bearish continuation.

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On the H4 time frame, there is a weakening of bearish momentum; which saw price action printing indecision candlesticks in the last three sessions on Friday under a sideways mode. The 0.67050 area (purple) is the 61.8 Fib retracement of the relatively big bearish drive in the first session on Friday and, technically, may witness a pullback of price action before a southward continuation. Generally, I am bearish the AUDUSD but I expect a northward pullback of price action first

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation continues being negative within a falling channel (red) on the monthly time frame. After a 61.8 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of June 2019 to the low of September 2019, since January 2020 the market operation has resumed its southward mode within the channel. Presently, the market is located about 120 pips above the next horizontal support zone, which is in the 1.08780 area (purple). A breach of that area southward will potentially expose the 1.05000 significant multi-year horizontal support zone (green).

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On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation broke below an area, the 1.10210 area, which saw consolidation for two weeks with a relatively big bearish candlestick print; and we can expect a further bearish move to target the next horizontal support zone, which is around 1.08780/1.07910 (bound by purple horizontal lines).

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Recent candlestick prints on the daily time frame and market structure favour a bearish continuation. The 1.08780 area is the next horizontal support.

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The order flow context on the H4 time frame favours a bearish continuation. I am bearish EURUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is disposed negatively on the monthly time frame but consolidating within a falling channel (blue). In December 2019, market operation overshot the channel resistance trendline to retest the broken-down 1.34830 horizontal support area (red) for a role flip. Bears effected a southward pullback and the December 2019 print resulted in an upper shadow that nestled at the 1.32570 area (magenta). This area saw a star formation in January 2020 and, technically, we can expect further southward move of market operation. Technically, the 1.25510 area (purple) is the next significant horizontal support. But longer-term traders will be eyeing the 1.20190 handle (green).

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On the weekly time frame, the 1.32570 area (magenta) marks the 61.8 Fib retracement of the bearish drop from the 1.34840 horizontal resistance area (red) to the 1.28810 horizontal support. Last week, market operation printed a bearish break-down candlestick of the 61.8 Fib zone. The candlestick was relatively big but it failed to break down the 1.28810 horizontal support; we may see some sideways or a brief pullback of price action before another bearish drive.

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On the daily time frame, price action has returned to within the falling channel (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. The channel resistance trendline was overshot in December 2019. But the structure will need be broken southward at the present location of price action, the 1.28800 area, on a daily closing basis before we can have confidence in a bearish continuation. The 1.25510 area (purple) is a significant horizontal support and a potential target of bears.

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On the H4 time frame, technicals are in support of bears. But we may see a pullback of price action first, perhaps to the 1.29590 area (black), which aligns with the 32.8 Fib zone of the most recent down swing on the H4 time frame, i.e. from the 1.30670 area. I am bearish GBPUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Guys,

Any Support/Resistance Indicator to use ? Which can Confluence with Daily , Weekly and 4H charts ?

Personally I don't have any. I draw my S/R lines from the monthly and weekly time frames for swing trading, but for the few intraday teading I do, I also look at the daily S/R lines.

Trade safe.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market is generally disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, in late April 2019, price action broke below the 0.70410 area (purple), an area which had held as support on a multi-year basis since February 2016. The area has been re-tested several times recently for a role flip as a horizontal resistance. Seven weeks ago, the area experienced a 78.6 Fib retracement of price action after a downward swing to the 0.67125 area. Since then, price action has been bearish until last week when bulls attempted a northward move which lacked conviction, as a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow was the eventual print. Presently, market operation is a few pips above the 0.66430 horizontal support area (magenta). This area needs be significantly breached southward before we can have confidence in a bearish continuation. Meanwhile, we should watch how the market handles the area in the early part of this week.

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On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within a falling channel (blue). On Monday last week, bulls took price action northward within the channel and was followed through on Tuesday and Wednesday, testing the channel resistance trendline around the 0.67460 horizontal resistance area before bears stepped in to effect a southward move on Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, the bearish influence lacked conviction, given the ambivalence of the candlestick printed on Friday. Presently, price action is located around the 0.67125 area and we may see a sideways or a brief pullback of price action in the area before a southward continuation.

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A falling triangle (magenta) has been formed by recent price action on the H4 time frame. Its significant breakdown is likely to result in a bearish continuation. Technicals and the order flow context favour bears.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD January 2020 bullish candlestick print entered the 1.97530 area, which approximates the 78.6 Fib zone of the downward swing from May 2016 to October 2016; it is also near the 61.8 Fib zone of the downward swing from November 2015 to October 2016. Presently, the February 2020 market operation has disposed southwards from the 1.97530 area. But on the weekly time frame, the technicals still favour bulls with price action operating in a rising chanel (blue) and bulls are taking it for a retest of the channel resistance trendline. Last week, a long-tailed bullish candlestick was printed by price action after a relatively big bearish print two weeks ago, indicating that bulls are still influential in the market.

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Technicals on the daily time frame still favour bulls. But the 1.95250/1.96870 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is the immediate horizontal resistance area. Should price action enter the zone, we should watch for a sideways or a southward pullback.

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On the H4 time frame, bears have been influential in the market since the end of January 2020, effecting a southward swing from the high of January 31 to the low of February 6. Presently, price action is disposed northward but with decreasing bullishness. The 1.95250/1.96870 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) represents the 61.8/78.6 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of January 31 to the low of February 6; the zone may witness a pullback of price action in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURGBP market has disposed southward since August 2019. On the monthly time frame, market operation broke down the 0.84920 area (magenta) which has held as horizontal support since May 2019. It is presently at another horizontal support area, the 0.82970 area (purple), which has held as support since April 2017.

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On the daily time frame, recent price action is disposed southward within a falling channel (blue). It is presently located around the 0.82970 horizontal support area, and we may see a brief pullback or sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week.

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Technicals on the H4 time frame favour bears. However, price action is far from the mean and a northward pullback is due. But as it is presently located less than 30 pips from the next significant horizontal support, which is at the 0.82760 area, we may see a move to the area first, then a pullback to a value area before a major bearish drive.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish mode of the EURUSD market continued last week. On the weekly time frame, a bearish continuation candlestick broke below the 1.08750 horizontal support area. But price action has entered the upper boundary of a significant horizontal support zone, 1.08370/1.06740 (bound by purple horizontal lines), and we may see a stalling of bearish momentum in the zone in the early part of this week.

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The daily time frame shows a technically bearish EURUSD market operation. But it is overextended, and a weakness can be seen in the bearish influence with the printing of less emphatic bearish candlesticks recently. Besides, market operation is presently far from the mean. Technically, a northward pullback is imminent; which is likely to be temporary in nature.

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On the H4 time frame, although technicals still favour bears, recent candlestick prints show an increase in bullish influence and we may see a pullback to an area of value before bears regain market dominance. The 1.09630/1.09910 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is such an area of value; it represents the 61.8 Fib retracement area of a significant recent downward swing on the H4 time frame. An alternative area of value to which price action may pull back is the 1.09230 area (sandybrown), a 32.8 Fib retracement.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation has broken above a falling trendline (red) traceable to January 2014 on the monthly time frame. Since November 2019, the market has been operating above the trendline and a former horizontal resistance around 1.28880 (magenta). Bears attempted a retest of the 1.28880 area in January but failed, leading to an indecision print. Presently, this February, bears made another attempt to retest the area but bulls have so far been resisting the move.

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On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, bears retested the former horizontal resistance area around 1.28880 (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame but last week bulls effected a northward push. Presently, the order flow is somehow in equilibrium and we should step aside to watch what happens in the market in the early part of this week.

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The daily time frame shows a GBPUSD market operation in a consolidation mode, even though bulls presently have a slight edge.

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Technicals on the H4 time frame favour further bullish move but the ‘wicky’ formations in some areas above the current location of price action indicate that there are barriers ahead which may hinder any bullish momentum. Much likely we may witness a brief move northward which would give way to a bearish turnaround soon.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.97510 area (magenta) represents the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the downward swing from the high of May 2016 to the low of October 2016. It was the high of the bullish candlestick printed in January this year. The February candlestick opened less than 70 pips below the area. On the weekly time frame, price action is disposed northward. However, the bullish candlestick printed last week has wicks on both ends, indicating a weakness in bullish drive. Nevertheless, a rising trendline (blue) from recent lows is still being respected by price action and we may see further bullish move, perhaps targeting the 1.97510 area before a southward turnaround. Should price action break above the area, we should wait for a retest of the trendline (blue) before looking for a long trade setup.

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On the daily time frame, presently, price action is within a rising wedge (black) and the technicals favour further bullish move. The immediate horizontal resistance is at the 1.97510 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is technically in consolidation. On the weekly time frame, the relatively big bearish candlestick printed three weeks ago was followed by a relatively smaller bullish candlestick a week later. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick from a few pips below the high of the bullish candlestick two weeks ago, The bearish candlestick moved below the candlestick printed two weeks ago but retraced northward, ending as a low-tailed candlestick; this indicating that bulls are still influential in the market. Furthermore, a rising trendline (red) traceable to August 2019 is still in play and the bearish candlestick printed last week failed to close below it. Technically the outlook is bullish on the weekly time frame but we still have a bearish pressure, looking at the recent order flow context.

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On the daily time frame, price action is within a falling wedge (blue). Technically this favours bulls but market operation is presently a few pips below the 1.29870 horizontal resistance area (magenta). In a generally consolidating market, it is better to wait for clarity of price action, and particularly for what happens at the wedge resistance trendline, unless you are interested in a brief scalping mode.

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On the H4 time frame, price action since New York session on Thursday has printed mainly bullish candlesticks. However, the last session on Friday printed a relatively small bearish candlestick. Technically, it points to a market in consolidation even though we have a bullish momentum presently. Any further bullish drive, however, may face a challenge a few pips above the present location because of the ‘wicky’ patterns around the 1.29950/1.30580 congestion zone (magenta).
As a swing trader, I am stepping aside from the GBPUSD market for now.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish drive that commenced on the EURUSD market three weeks ago seems to have declined last week. On the weekly time frame, market operation printed an indecision candlestick last week. It was printed at the multi-year horizontal support zone around the 1.08510 area. The area may witness a sideways of market operation or a brief northward pullback in the early part of this week.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame is disposed southward and it is respecting a falling trendline (blue). However, presently the momentum is bullish and the bullish candlestick printed on Friday was relatively big, breaking out of the consolidation of Wednesday and Thursday. Technically, we can expect a northward pullback of price action to an area of value before a southward turnaround. One such area of value is the broken down 1.08800/1.09360 horizontal support zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After trading sideways for several months since August 2019 in the 0.70220/0.66300 zone, the AUDUSD market disposed southward in February 2020. On the monthly time frame, a bearish candlestick was printed in February which broke below the 0.66300 lower boundary of the zone. The market has now entered the multi-year 0.66300/0.63040 horizontal support zone (bound by purple horizontal lines).

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is disposed southwards. Last week, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed, and it pierced through the 0.66300 horizontal support area. However, the long tail at the bottom indicates that bears were not totally in control of market operation.

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Price action on the daily time frame has moved too far southward from the mean, and we may see a northward pullback in the early part of this week. The first technical area of value which any pullback may target is the 0.65840 area (magenta), which is the 23.6 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of December 31, 2019.

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On the H4 time frame, a bullish pinbar was printed in the penultimate 4-hr session on Friday. This was followed with a bullish print that ended the Friday market. This indicated that bulls were trying to take price action northward, perhaps to a previous broken-down horizontal support zone, such as the 0.65840/0.66300 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has generally disposed negatively for a long while but has been operating in a wide range falling wedge (red) on the monthly time frame. However, since August 2019, market operation has been in consolidation within the 1.12170/1.08840 zone (bound by blue horizontal lines). In February, the market printed a long-tailed bearish candlestick within the zone.

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A morning star pattern has formed on the weekly time frame at the 1.08840 horizontal support area. Last week, market operation printed a relatively big bullish candlestick which inched towards the 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing. This location is also congruent to a recent congestion of price action and is technically susceptible to a role flip for a southward turnaround.

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On February 13, price action on the daily time frame broke below the 1.12170/1.08840 zone (bound by blue horizontal lines) within which it had been operating since August 5, 2019. Between February 21 and 26, bulls made several futile attempts to return price action to within the zone. But on February 26, they succeeded, and presently price action is within the middle of the zone. After printing a bullish candlestick with shadows at both ends on Friday, price action nestled at the 1.10260 S/R area. Technically, this indicates a slowing down of bullish momentum. In the context of the bigger technical outlook (bearish) on the monthly time frame, we may see a southward turnaround within the 1.10380/1.11500 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines), which aligns with the 61.8/78.6 Fib retracement zone of the most recent downward swing.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP