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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #509,261
  • Jan 21, 2020 5:42am Jan 21, 2020 5:42am
Quoting kuroro001
As always, the higher the better for shorts. Still selling rallies, i won't touch the buy button
what percent drawdown (roughly) does your account take per 100 pips?

Just to get an idea of how you trade long term (risk wise)
  • #509,262
  • Jan 21, 2020 5:46am Jan 21, 2020 5:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #509,263
  • Jan 21, 2020 5:47am Jan 21, 2020 5:47am
here my 2 charts my old analysis and the new one

I didn't expect the drop to reach 1.2960 level but its all fine anyway

I am still long and waiting for 1.3300 area to short there
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  • #509,264
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:00am Jan 21, 2020 6:00am
Quoting msniper
here my 2 charts my old analysis and the new one I didn't expect the drop to reach 1.2960 level but its all fine anyway I am still long and waiting for 1.3300 area to short there {image} {image}

I'd imagine for GU to reach 1.33 you'd need DXY to drop to around 96.60-96.30 level. Just based off of previous levels of DXY relative to GU 3300 levels.
  • #509,265
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:09am Jan 21, 2020 6:09am
GU is nearing the upper limit of the descending triangle H4. See the chart here.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #509,266
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:14am Jan 21, 2020 6:14am
i am out , switch to a baby short
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yes yes yes
  • #509,267
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:18am Jan 21, 2020 6:18am
Quoting msniper
{quote} what about your drawdown ? my target is above 300pips from current level
Quoting Ra.
{quote} what percent drawdown (roughly) does your account take per 100 pips? Just to get an idea of how you trade long term (risk wise)
Hi guys,

I'm trading daily/Weekly mostly.

I can take easily 200/300 pips hit. But whenever i take 100 pips i don't like it and review my trades. Lately it wasn't the case. Max was like 30/40 pips for 100/150 pips.
I'm not fully short right now, took a small part inside the 40s. I'll look to add a bit higher, or get rid of it if we go down in a weak way
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #509,268
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:21am Jan 21, 2020 6:21am
The drop has finished at 2960. Look to long everyday henceforth.

But look for proper entry or else floating loss.
Intraday only.
  • #509,269
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:21am Jan 21, 2020 6:21am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} {quote} Hi guys, I'm trading daily/Weekly mostly. I can take easily 200/300 pips hit. But whenever i take 100 pips i don't like it and review my trades. Lately it wasn't the case. Max was like 30/40 pips for 100/150 pips. I'm not fully short right now, took a small part inside the 40s. I'll look to add a bit higher, or get rid of it if we go down in a weak way
Gotcha,

I was wondering moreso percent. i.e If you close with-100pips on GU. is that -1.22%, -0.22% etc, regardless of position size.

I ask, for a matter of perspective.

You run soft SL i'm assuming? So typically will you wait for retracing on a -100 pip DD to maybe 40-50% retrace before closing the loss.


I see some guys who trade with 50% floating p&l, and it sounds like you may trade a similar style, so I was just curious about the risk management #'s
  • #509,270
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:24am Jan 21, 2020 6:24am
Quoting navk
The drop has finished at 2960. Look to long everyday henceforth. But look for proper entry or else floating loss.
interesting, i'm shorting now , if DXY doesn't pass 97.52 i'll go long.
  • #509,271
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:30am Jan 21, 2020 6:30am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} Gotcha, I was wondering moreso percent. i.e If you close with-100pips on GU. is that -1.22%, -0.22% etc, regardless of position size. I ask, for a matter of perspective. You run soft SL i'm assuming? So typically will you wait for retracing on a -100 pip DD to maybe 40-50% retrace before closing the loss. I see some guys who trade with 50% floating p&l, and it sounds like you may trade a similar style, so I was just curious about the risk management #'s
Usually i take light positions, increase on the way up/down, depending on my view.
As i trade mostly weekly because of the COT report, i take my time to take trades. And 100 pips is nothing here. Before i took 1,42 short (SL near 1,45) for a 1500 pips profits.
Having large view give me time to think if i'm wrong, if i have to add more or make my positions lighter.

i don't have a specific system for my SL, everything is dynamic, so is the market
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #509,272
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:30am Jan 21, 2020 6:30am
Quoting BenWarburton
{quote} Mad respect my man haha Don't get margin called though my dude, trade safe! Hoping for some long action tomorrow too so let's get this bread
And thats a wrap... good job to my guts...
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #509,273
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:30am Jan 21, 2020 6:30am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} I'd imagine for GU to reach 1.33 you'd need DXY to drop to around 96.60-96.30 level. Just based off of previous levels of DXY relative to GU 3300 levels.
GBP doesn't effect DXY a lot like EUR do. EUR is 50% of the weight of DXY. but GBP is much more less I think its around 20% if I am not mistaken

so far I see DXY back to the bearish channel again

and I would like to see a drop to build a head and shoulder may be
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  • #509,274
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:35am Jan 21, 2020 6:35am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} interesting, i'm shorting now , if DXY doesn't pass 97.52 i'll go long.
for scalp, it is fine.
Intraday only.
  • #509,275
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:36am Jan 21, 2020 6:36am
sl 1.30660
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yes yes yes
  • #509,276
  • Edited 6:50am Jan 21, 2020 6:39am | Edited 6:50am
Just woke up to see, ok but gbpusd played little high, even may try test 3080 having signal 3048, 3920 limit to up to try may bottom next.so expecting go go below 3023 over 3920 to bounce if possible bull again. Lets see, care
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #509,277
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:48am Jan 21, 2020 6:48am
Quoting msniper
{quote} GBP doesn't effect DXY a lot like EUR do. EUR is 50% of the weight of DXY. but GBP is much more less I think its around 20% if I am not mistaken so far I see DXY back to the bearish channel again and I would like to see a drop to build a head and shoulder may be {image}
Yup, heavy on the EUR, but I was looking at the USD side of things, based on the strength of the DXY, we get a representation of the strength of the USD.

Here are my thoughts, as to why I was using DXY.

So, UK elections (Dec 13), we see that massive spike up on GU, with minimal movement on DXY. But, we see late december (31st to be specific), a spike down on DXY with a correlated effect on GU.

The way I interpret it is based on money flow between the currencies. So with GU on December 13th we see money moving because elections set. December 31st lots of money exiting markets (USD wise) so part of that is leaving GU pair.

Of course its not perfect, but it can be used as a gauge, but that's just my take on it, and you're right, it's got very little Pound in it. I was just using the December 13th/ 31st as a benchmark for a rough estimate of DXY strength relative to GU price.

I'm still overall bearish but anything can happen, and 1.33 to me seems like it's already happened (Dec 31st) which is about 60% retrace from the drop between Dec 13th-19th.


I can see your POV on DXY too. This is what I've got/see. Thanks for the info appreciated.
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  • #509,278
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:52am Jan 21, 2020 6:52am
Quoting msniper
{quote} GBP doesn't effect DXY a lot like EUR do. EUR is 50% of the weight of DXY. but GBP is much more less I think its around 20% if I am not mistaken so far I see DXY back to the bearish channel again and I would like to see a drop to build a head and shoulder may be {image}
good point,
traders focusing too much on DXY while trading cable.
personally i don't look at..
  • #509,279
  • Jan 21, 2020 6:52am Jan 21, 2020 6:52am
Got some shorts orders filled now, will see what happens!
  • #509,280
  • Jan 21, 2020 7:02am Jan 21, 2020 7:02am
any daily close above 1.3095 on the pink line I would say the bull on control for another 200pips push up
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