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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #509,041
  • Jan 17, 2020 10:23am Jan 17, 2020 10:23am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} how do you differentiate between short profit taking and actual buyers entering the market??
lets hope there is some more buyers so the bears can stop them out ! :-)
  • #509,042
  • Jan 17, 2020 10:38am Jan 17, 2020 10:38am
Quoting stillbroke10
{quote} Have you startedd buying?
Yes why?
  • #509,043
  • Jan 17, 2020 10:43am Jan 17, 2020 10:43am
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yes yes yes
  • #509,044
  • Jan 17, 2020 10:45am Jan 17, 2020 10:45am
Quoting thevisitor
after checking the charts: H4 long 1.3040 sl 1.3020 nice RR next number to watch 1.3160 {image}
poor entry...
still in
adjusted sl below marked area

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  • #509,045
  • Jan 17, 2020 10:49am Jan 17, 2020 10:49am
I would personally take note of this super strong support at 1.2990. 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and swing low support there. Could play a bounce from there?

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  • #509,046
  • Jan 17, 2020 11:02am Jan 17, 2020 11:02am
GU reached my buy area and possible turn around to build a right shoulder. am going long now 1.3029

target above 1.3300
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  • #509,047
  • Jan 17, 2020 11:16am Jan 17, 2020 11:16am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} how do you differentiate between short profit taking and actual buyers entering the market??
Day of the week mostly Han.

Daytraders and basicly everyone trading the smaller timetrames like to go to neutral over the weekend.
The aforementioned traders are also the large volume going through, whereas the large institutionals are more long term minded and get their fills from the speculative daytraders.

So when I see a big move on friday followed by some light retracements late friday, I guesstimate this to be profit-taking mostly.
You are 100% correct though, in that short profit taking is precisely the same in orderflow terms as a bull entering.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #509,048
  • Jan 17, 2020 11:32am Jan 17, 2020 11:32am
It's not the first time the pound has made the journey from daily r2 to daily s2
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yes yes yes
  • #509,049
  • Jan 17, 2020 11:53am Jan 17, 2020 11:53am
Quoting Moty
It's not the first time the pound has made the journey from daily r2 to daily s2 {image}
for sure we can get huge daily swings when we had two days uppmarket on negative data?

today feels again like market ”manipulation” trapping traders. The big players for sure had the data beforehand of the retail data. Either by leaking or just making a market survey, it was 1.1% of the predicted value... that is alot of money... maybe some here can tell who actually makes the prediction of +0.5. Actually it got better from -0.8 but if you screw of the predictions all data can look good or bad... :-)

offcourse bad numbers increase fear for rate cuts in two weeks..

the push to the top... was that a perfect opportunity for some to get great position for shorting the market? Anyhow, i just did not see the logic behind that move in the morning.
  • #509,050
  • Jan 17, 2020 12:09pm Jan 17, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting krst8
{quote}(...) the push to the top... was that a perfect opportunity for some to get great position for shorting the market? Anyhow, i just did not see the logic behind that move in the morning.
It sure was and I have to say it was not that difficult to spot.
Pull up the 4H chart and you'll see a large bearish outside bar at 8:00 AM (GMT) on the 9th of januari this year.
The stops behind that bar were, as of this morning, unchallenged.

Yesterday the GBP had somewhat strong day, eventhough the medium term has been bearish.
I've placed a limit order to sell at 1.31, so that if those stops are to get run, my order acts as a 'tollbooth' so to speak.

This is just my view ofcourse.
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #509,051
  • Edited 12:35pm Jan 17, 2020 12:24pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting Donaciello
{quote} It sure was and I have to say it was not that difficult to spot. Pull up the 4H chart and you'll see a large bearish outside bar at 8:00 AM (GMT) on the 9th of januari this year. The stops behind that bar were, as of this morning, unchallenged. Yesterday the GBP had somewhat strong day, eventhough the medium term has been bearish. I've placed a limit order to sell at 1.31, so that if those stops are to get run, my order acts as a 'tollbooth' so to speak. This is just my view ofcourse.

ok, yeah, guess with experience one learns and as you say, spot the trap and go with the large players, great trade to put a stop order at 3100! Thanks for the trading idea, to read market and find stops is a skill to learn! Was short so not fun to see ones position go wrong 70 pips, never concern for margin call but large drawdown but keept it and manage to take some profits now in the late market. but yeah, the spike after 10pm make me to calm down a little... was to good to be true!!

as said i am bearish, and want to lock in a long swing trade but this market tries to kick me out everyday :-) still much to learn!
  • #509,052
  • Jan 17, 2020 1:05pm Jan 17, 2020 1:05pm
After successful test 97.40 resistance usdx may set forth for next resistance 97.80 with minimum correction or not. Lets see next week., take care
So others may continue bear, gbpusd and gold may do more as recently as of recent flight of fear!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #509,053
  • Jan 17, 2020 1:38pm Jan 17, 2020 1:38pm
all out 1.30157
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yes yes yes
  • #509,054
  • Edited 2:11pm Jan 17, 2020 1:49pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting Moty
all out 1.30157 {image}
dont belive in 2980?

was expecting a retrace so closed some position at 3040... but still down..
  • #509,055
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:42pm Jan 17, 2020 2:42pm
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yes yes yes
  • #509,056
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:47pm Jan 17, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} dont belive in 2980? was expecting a retrace so closed some position at 3040... but still down..
I learned the lesson from last weekend's Gap
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yes yes yes
  • #509,057
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:54pm Jan 17, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} I learned the lesson from last weekend's Gap {image}
always follow your post....

maybe history gap come again...
  • #509,058
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:22pm Jan 17, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} I learned the lesson from last weekend's Gap {image}
:-) ok, i am going for the gap down...

like the story today claiming that eu and UK’s Johnson being pushed by US to object irans nuclear deal and stop market transaction...showing deal his famous deals will be interesting in a bigger concept... rate cuts etc.. eu wanting to claim UK fishing water etc, but yes, a “gamble”


but agree the market has been dropping now for 7 hours slow but very steady... i guess there are many want to exit, will be looking into what happens this last 30min
  • #509,059
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:34pm Jan 17, 2020 3:34pm
Quoting Moty
It's not the first time the pound has made the journey from daily r2 to daily s2 {image}
finally reach your TP...heheehe
  • #509,060
  • Jan 17, 2020 3:46pm Jan 17, 2020 3:46pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} :-) ok, i am going for the gap down... like the story today claiming that eu and UK’s Johnson being pushed by US to object irans nuclear deal and stop market transaction...showing deal his famous deals will be interesting in a bigger concept... rate cuts etc.. eu wanting to claim UK fishing water etc, but yes, a “gamble” but agree the market has been dropping now for 7 hours slow but very steady... i guess there are many want to exit, will be looking into what happens this last 30min
me i am not expecting any gap.... just gut feeling.....
Extreme gut feeling trader
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