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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #508,441
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:40am Jan 14, 2020 2:40am
Quoting Ra.
Does anyone have a theory on these pump n' dumps that you see early market?
My theory is that all these whipsaws are ways to force weak holders to close their positions, it also entice people to come into the market, and I think these normally happens in early market is because the liquidity is thinner and also not a lot of market participants are opened for business yet, so it is much cheaper to move the market during these times.
  • #508,442
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:41am Jan 14, 2020 2:41am
have my tp at 2934.

Next support or zone of interest on my chart markup looks like 2920.

*Edit* seems like it's working this area, heavy support of long term upward TL.
  • #508,443
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:41am Jan 14, 2020 2:41am
Quoting NieFenG999
{quote} Don't touch the quiet market.... ^_^
you think this is quiet?
lol
price pressure is building downward NieFen
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #508,444
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:44am Jan 14, 2020 2:44am
Quoting knkie
{quote} you think this is quiet? lol price pressure is building downward NieFen
all them wicksss
  • #508,445
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:46am Jan 14, 2020 2:46am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} My theory is that all these whipsaws are ways to force weak holders to close their positions, it also entice people to come into the market, and I think these normally happens in early market is because the liquidity is thinner and also not a lot of market participants are opened for business yet, so it is much cheaper to move the market during these times.
Thanks Han

It's a good theory, I could agree with that.
  • #508,446
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:48am Jan 14, 2020 2:48am
Quoting Ra.
Does anyone have a theory on these pump n' dumps that you see early market?
There are too many longs at that position, stops being taken out before the market moves higher.

i.e the big boys at work...

Guz
Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #508,447
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:50am Jan 14, 2020 2:50am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} There are too many longs at that position, stops being taken out before the market moves higher. i.e the big boys at work... Guz
So.. my initial outlook was they're knocking out early buyers...


At the same time. .. it's kind of like a never ending spiral of...well could they actually be trapping buyers? Where's the big move, i.e where price moves away from current price point and doesn't return for a while?

My understanding is your short/midterm is short too? But now you're seeing signs of Bearish trapping/inducement with the 'real' push being upward?
  • #508,448
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:53am Jan 14, 2020 2:53am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} So.. my initial outlook was they're knocking out early buyers... At the same time. .. it's kind of like a never ending spiral of...well could they actually be trapping buyers? Where's the big move, i.e where price moves away from current price point and doesn't return for a while? My understanding is your short/midterm is short too? But now you're seeing signs of Bearish trapping/inducement with the 'real' push being upward?
That’s where the saying “trapped in the hole” comes from...
Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #508,449
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:55am Jan 14, 2020 2:55am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} That’s where the saying “trapped in the hole” comes from...
I hope not referring to an ugly broad on this.....

TP at 1.29 - 1.2938.....might even hit 1.288
Lost....
  • #508,450
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:57am Jan 14, 2020 2:57am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} My theory is that all these whipsaws are ways to force weak holders to close their positions, it also entice people to come into the market, and I think these normally happens in early market is because the liquidity is thinner and also not a lot of market participants are opened for business yet, so it is much cheaper to move the market during these times.
i think wipsaws occur when Higher Frame SR's are challenged.
IN this case weekly support broke yesterday but price dances around such a high level before continuing ...
that happened yesterday.

just my view, could be wrong.
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #508,451
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:58am Jan 14, 2020 2:58am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
It takes great effort to reverse a trend quickly espec if one is entrenched for quite a while...short of a major news event that drive the mkt into frenzy. However...for a small group of traders..espec one with deep pockets and with relatively quiet mkt...to reverse the trend...all one need to to is to move the mkt to hit a close above the critical level...keep them there...and the rest of the mkt will follow suit...espec since many are waiting to catch the bottom...and bear stops being hit at each level...the mkt will drive on its own...
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #508,452
  • Jan 14, 2020 2:59am Jan 14, 2020 2:59am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} I hope not referring to an ugly broad on this..... TP at 1.29 - 1.2938.....might even hit 1.288
No
Charts don't drive price, market conditions drive price...
  • #508,453
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:03am Jan 14, 2020 3:03am
Quoting knkie
{quote} i think wipsaws occur when Higher Frame SR's are challenged. IN this case weekly support broke yesterday but price dances around such a high level before continuing ... that happened yesterday. just my view, could be wrong.
I've been using the wicks on higher TF when it gets volatile, just that gets me trapped at the bottom when i get greedy.

I.E i sat through -50 pip draw down overnight, because I was scalping down... then figured...hey daily move is only at 80pips... let try to get 10-20 more depending on momentum of it.

Price just fucked right off in the other direction. Sigh...sit wait.

Now we're in the exact same scenario with the Daily range sitting at 50pips. With long wicks to the downside on higher TF.
  • #508,454
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:05am Jan 14, 2020 3:05am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} No
do you think this is trapped in the hole?
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  • #508,455
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:08am Jan 14, 2020 3:08am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} I've been using the wicks on higher TF when it gets volatile, just that gets me trapped at the bottom when i get greedy. I.E i sat through -50 pip draw down overnight, because I was scalping down... then figured...hey daily move is only at 80pips... let try to get 10-20 more depending on momentum of it. Price just fucked right off in the other direction. Sigh...sit wait. Now we're in the exact same scenario with the Daily range sitting at 50pips. With long wicks to the downside on higher TF.
yeah i hear ya...
if i enter and price reverses fast then i usually dump it. Something is wrong if that happens.
I figure a trade should develop fast or its a bad entry.

next level target is 2943 for me, but 2960 has to break first.
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #508,456
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:08am Jan 14, 2020 3:08am
Quoting Guztro
{quote} There are too many longs at that position, stops being taken out before the market moves higher. i.e the big boys at work... Guz
I do recall you mentioning a retrace before going further down.


So effectively we see this...roughly... which is what I've seen on long term trends. the fakeout before continuation.

"Arrows in Red is to come this week"
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  • #508,457
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:12am Jan 14, 2020 3:12am
Quoting knkie
{quote} yeah i hear ya... if i enter and price reverses fast then i usually dump it. Something is wrong if that happens. I figure a trade should develop fast or its a bad entry. next level target is 2943 for me, but 2960 has to break first.

Yeah i'm taking some partial profits at 2953.

I still don't think i've fully defined my exits on a bad trade and if to reverse. I hate playing ping pong with price and my overall positions... Think that's another thing I need to develop. It doesn't make sense for me to hold so long.....BUT I do limit my overall exposure relative to position size for now... As i'm still quite young in this profession and haven't seen enough experience in the markets IMO.
  • #508,458
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:34am Jan 14, 2020 3:34am
The bears dominance disappeared after a strong showing earlier, starting to think the bear move might be over for now, setting the shorts to BE and gonna start buying on the dips
  • #508,459
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:47am Jan 14, 2020 3:47am
Quoting andrefx
{quote} do you think this is trapped in the hole? {image}
Guz, correct me if i'm wrong,

I was under the impression he was talking about a mindset, self doubt. Where all you see is traps, and that impairs your overall decision process. At least that's what I got out of it.
  • #508,460
  • Jan 14, 2020 3:49am Jan 14, 2020 3:49am
Quoting Han2019
The bears dominance disappeared after a strong showing earlier, starting to think the bear move might be over for now, setting the shorts to BE and gonna start buying on the dips
i pulled my shorts out. waiting for a clearer signal. Might put some longs in.
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