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USD/CHF

  • #5,661
  • Jan 1, 2020 9:28pm Jan 1, 2020 9:28pm
Quoting Tekin
{quote} Dream is dream {image} {image}

good starting
  • #5,662
  • Jan 1, 2020 10:56pm Jan 1, 2020 10:56pm
I don’t think Fed would want to reduce the rate anymore, at least first half of 2020. On the other side, SNB last statement clearly said they believe Frank is overvalued and they plan to keep the negative rates in foreseeable future and even intervene in the market if required to devalue Frank.

IMO, it’s a good entry time after year end non sense down rally.
  • #5,663
  • Jan 2, 2020 12:42am Jan 2, 2020 12:42am
Yep yep!!
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #5,664
  • Jan 2, 2020 7:31am Jan 2, 2020 7:31am
For anyone who cares...

It is possible that more strong selling will occur because sellers will want to protect their positions. The sentiment also suggests power traders will be looking to sell since the majority are bullish (doesn't always work out that way). Thus the tables may turn against the retail trader when the sentiment changes to the majority being bearish (little tricks you have to watch out for).

Either way, I believe we are due for a correction.

Having said that...

There is a high probability price will continue to rise somewhere between 0.98479 and 0.98381 before hitting a wall.
There is a supply zone to watch out for around 0.98329 and 0.97952.

Note: "high probability" does not equate to 'certainty' or 'absolute'. It simply means there is a greater chance to happen than to not happen.

I share this not as financial advice but for educational purposes. What you choose to do with your trades is solely on you. In other words, you trade at your own risk.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,665
  • Jan 2, 2020 10:31am Jan 2, 2020 10:31am
Good day here today. Hopefully bottom was in yesterday and now we climb, uptrend is clear but expecting some small pullback unless USD can gain traction
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #5,666
  • Jan 2, 2020 12:06pm Jan 2, 2020 12:06pm
Quoting M3csl
Good day here today. Hopefully bottom was in yesterday and now we climb, uptrend is clear but expecting some small pullback unless USD can gain traction
Uptrend is not yet clear. You should use higher time frames such as the Daily to determine trend. According to the Daily (as well as the Weekly), we are in a very large range. The Daily is obviously showing stronger bearish activity, however. Nevertheless, we are due for a correction, and I believe this is playing out now. What concerns me, is there is a giant Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the Daily. If this pattern plays out, then it could spell a very bad year and possibly beyond for USD.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,667
  • Jan 2, 2020 6:31pm Jan 2, 2020 6:31pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Uptrend is not yet clear. You should use higher time frames such as the Daily to determine trend. According to the Daily (as well as the Weekly), we are in a very large range. The Daily is obviously showing stronger bearish activity, however. Nevertheless, we are due for a correction, and I believe this is playing out now. What concerns me, is there is a giant Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the Daily. If this pattern plays out, then it could spell a very bad year and possibly beyond for USD.
Hi,

Head and shoulders where?

Could you please show me, I cannot see it
A good strategy for trading is... the opposite of having a bad strategy.
  • #5,668
  • Jan 2, 2020 6:51pm Jan 2, 2020 6:51pm
Quoting PowerTrade
{quote} Hi, Head and shoulders where? Could you please show me, I cannot see it
Sorry, I meant to say the Weekly.
Please keep in mind that people don't always agree on how to draw the Head and Shoulders pattern. So if you feel it's wrong, I'm OK with that. I don't trade this pattern, to be frank with you. But it is something I take notice of on occasion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: head and shoulders.jpg Size: 156 KB
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,669
  • Edited 10:04pm Jan 2, 2020 7:43pm | Edited 10:04pm
Well, it looks like the tables are turning against USD once again and the carnage isn't finished yet. Let's see what happens on Friday. I am certain US retail traders will diligently defend their long positions in the morning.

Important news is scheduled for USD Friday morning, which may have a strong impact on the price. Hopefully, it will be good news for USD as it doesn't deserve to be under the foot of CHF.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,670
  • Jan 3, 2020 1:43am Jan 3, 2020 1:43am
The problem with your hypothesis is you are trying to analyze this pair technically. You shouldn’t do it with USDCHF. It’s a carry trade pair and constantly being intervened by SNB and SNB loudly announce that they intervene to keep CHF weak. SNB doesn’t put monetary policy based on a head and shoulder plan or any other candle pattern, they look at the fundamentals at the moment and near future.
  • #5,671
  • Jan 3, 2020 1:46am Jan 3, 2020 1:46am
Quoting umbrella man
The problem with your hypothesis is you are trying to analyze this pair technically...
Your problem is you think I have a problem.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,672
  • Jan 3, 2020 1:50am Jan 3, 2020 1:50am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Your problem is you think I have a problem.
you have a long windy way in front of you my junior trader friend
hope it’s not a big account you are burning.
  • #5,673
  • Jan 3, 2020 1:57am Jan 3, 2020 1:57am
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} you have a long windy way in front of you my junior trader friend hope it’s not a big account you are burning.
What makes you think I am burning my account? Better question: What makes you think I don't know how to manage my money? What makes you think I am not an experienced trader? You know nothing about me. I have been trading for years.

Just because you don't agree with my methodology doesn't make you a better trader. If you can't handle ideas which differ from your own without being verbally abusive, then I think you are not mature enough to post in a forum.

At least I have attempted to offer something of value here. What have you done?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,674
  • Jan 3, 2020 2:07am Jan 3, 2020 2:07am
Quoting here2there
{quote} What makes you think I am burning my account? Better question: What makes you think I don't know how to manage my money? What makes you think I am not an experienced trader? You know nothing about me. I have been trading for years. Just because you don't agree with my methodology doesn't make you a better trader. If you can't handle ideas which differ from your own without being verbally abusive, then I think you are not mature enough to post in a forum. At least I have attempted to offer something of value here. What have you done?
Right here my friend. See how soon you flip and get mad at others. It shows you are emotional, which is poison to trading.

I use your words to answer your question. You said a HnS pattern is forming and USD may go down because you believe in technical trading, which is ok to trade technically. I replied to you and mentioned there is a problem here, technical trading normally does not work on this pair. How you answered showed me you are not a matured trader: you answered to my post by being sarcastic instead of addressing my points. It shows who cannot handle ideas.

also sometimes it’s better not to contribute with mis information and dis information and just observe.

peace!
  • #5,675
  • Jan 3, 2020 2:24am Jan 3, 2020 2:24am
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} Right here my friend. See how soon you flip and get mad at others. It shows you are emotional, which is poison to trading. I use your words to answer your question. You said a HnS pattern is forming and USD may go down because you believe in technical trading, which is ok to trade technically. I replied to you and mentioned there is a problem here, technical trading normally does not work on this pair. How you answered showed me you are not a matured trader: you answered to my post by being sarcastic instead of addressing my points. It shows...
The only thing you have demonstrated here is you are quick to jump to conclusions about people you don't know and appear to have a reading comprehension problem.

This is what I said about the Head and Shoulders pattern: "What concerns me, is there is a giant Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the Daily. If this pattern plays out, then it could spell a very bad year and possibly beyond for USD."

Do you understand what the word "if" means?

Now please stop bothering me with such nonsense. You trade the way you want, and I will trade the way I want. Instead of picking fights with people by attacking them for sharing ideas on trading, do something constructive with your time. You are clogging up the thread with worthless commentary at the moment. Please stop.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,676
  • Jan 3, 2020 2:26am Jan 3, 2020 2:26am
Quoting here2there
{quote} The only thing you have demonstrated here is you are quick to jump to conclusions about people you don't know and appear to have a reading comprehension problem. This is what I said about the Head and Shoulders pattern: "What concerns me, is there is a giant Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the Daily. If this pattern plays out, then it could spell a very bad year and possibly beyond for USD." Do you understand what the word "if" means? Now please stop bothering me with such nonsense. You trade the way you want, and I will trade the...
You are still doing it young trader . You will live and learn. Good luck!
  • #5,677
  • Jan 3, 2020 9:07am Jan 3, 2020 9:07am
Unfortunately, it looks like bulls are giving up the fight. Interest is there, but the selling pressure is too strong.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,678
  • Jan 5, 2020 1:55pm Jan 5, 2020 1:55pm
New week!
Lets see how this Iran stuff goes for USD. War threats normally boost the dollar..
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #5,679
  • Jan 5, 2020 3:10pm Jan 5, 2020 3:10pm
Quoting M3csl
New week! Lets see how this Iran stuff goes for USD. War threats normally boost the dollar..
It's sad to see how well CHF is performing against USD. Really embarrassing!
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #5,680
  • Jan 6, 2020 7:57am Jan 6, 2020 7:57am
I would not recommend anyone trade this pair at this time as it is too unstable.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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