Cable Update (GBPUSD)

but very risky areas in the play,no trade should stack at and above areas ,ok more 200 pips areas though!look lucrative but still risky!

very well spotted!!!

Hi Sweety

BREXT and the UK Election

Here is a brief summary of the current state of the GBP/USD in relation to the Brexit saga.



A . Enthusiasm builds over PM May's deal pushing pound up to 1.44 - the same level the pound traded at prior to Brexit.

B . Probability of May negotiating a successful deal fades. Pound then consolidates above previous lows at 1.27 to 1.33.

C. Pound sinks following Boris Johnson (BOJO) taking office in July and claiming “Do or Die in a Ditch” he would exit without a deal if necessary. Only at this point does the pound decline to challenge previous bottom at 1.20.

D. BOJO starts to negotiate a new deal and gets close to passing it, wins vote to hold a general election. Polls forecasting a BOJO majority, market pricing in higher probability of a deal. Pound rallies from 1.2 to 1.3 (1000pips) in 7 weeks.

Main points:

 

1. The pound is forming a large double bottom on the weekly.
   
2. 1.27 to 1.33 is a safe zone consolidation that will be supported as long as no deal is off the table.
   
3. 1.37 to 1.44 will be challenged and likely taken out if BOJO wins he's majority, passes a deal and Brexit fades into history.
   
4. If Tory's have a bad outcome in the election and cannot pass BOJO's deal, uncertainty will push down the pound and increase volatility, likely drag on for considerable time.
5. The market is currently optimistic in relation to the election result, pricing in a BOJO majority. Shorting into this environment is a risky strategy.

One big thing happen on weekly- GU crossed Ma200 weekly-1.31072.If it stay here nothing can stop it up

Looking ahead over the weeks ahead-I can see price targeting into 1.3750 ish

This week obviously, there is a general election coming up.
But the Tories will win this, plus there is a small matter of the US cash rate meeting and of course Trump's decision over tarriffs
This is the most important thing in the markets.

So this week you would expect to see more of a risk off bias on Cable - its an election.
And the strong NFP figures on Friday will give extra strength into the dollar. I would also expect Powell to still be neutral positive.

For me its a sell on rallies at the moment.

Looking further ahead into next year and beyond the US will go into recession
The yield curve inverted and PMIs are rubbish.
Plus if Elizabeth Warren is nominated as democratic candidate next year- the S&P could be in trouble

i look now monthly- it touched lower channel border and go to upper border upper border is-1.4772 but this is long story main thing it go to upper border.motnthly turned up.gu only look long

Weekly

I Still believe in short.

It might be good to keep in mind that any form of Brexit is not good for the British economy. I therefore have a hard time understanding why GBP would for example reach levels before the referendum. In fact, I believe that BOJO win has already been priced in. UK economy will get worse in 2020.

Does anyone thinks that the market will open with a gap on the upside??I mean looking at how the market closed on Friday...

Based on this Reuters article: "Knife-edge? Johnson ahead but polls suggest majority might be tough" https://www.yahoo.com/news/knife-edg...222721243.html
I would expect rather a gap down if any.

one of many pool results this weekend, some pro Labour and most Pro Tory. I think that the one that says Laubour is catching was paid by the remain side!?

The best comments came from the brexit party, Farage whom claims that the results in pools are not correct and that he will get many many % in the votes... https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.dail...-election.html


Hence, buy the rumors situation ?!?

Hope so in 2020 once the drama over. Anyway it was expected long back too and was supposed huge divergence with euro but not happened yet, it survived great tanking and euro not started great bull yet and last chance if there next year. Otherwise, even divorce euro may not survive without gbp power! Do or die together against usdx next year.

all the tl's seem to be a bit arbitrary, the last one is downright criminal.

just my 2 cents:
H1 is making a LH, if it makes a HL price will shoot up.
If it fails then it will probably fall further.
My bias remains long.
so the levels im watching on H1 are;
1.30955
1.31427

levels are stronger than trendlines

Until election, any open trade is highly risky and IMO is gambling. It’s not necessarily a bad thing. I have a very high leverage account I use for gambling. At the moment I am leaning towards opening a huge short.

The monthly is presenting a frightening outlook for the bears. That trend line is clearly under threat and 3500 is now a visbile target