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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #82,041
  • Nov 6, 2019 1:05pm Nov 6, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting Kenobi
{quote} Been conflicted for days about this. This is one of the better sub threads and usd/jpy is a great pair to trade. If it weren’t for the test of last week’s high yesterday and pullback today before what could be a possible breakout from the triangle it would be easier to walk away. Are you saying people need to share ideas on the format you prefer? Let’s be honest. It is not about the 3 views this brings.
This is a public forum, so need is a strong word. I was voicing an opinion. Adherence is absolutely voluntary as I only have the power to request things of orhers. Appreciate your input. Thanks.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,042
  • Nov 7, 2019 4:19am Nov 7, 2019 4:19am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} It would be awesome if rather than assuming your education is superior you asked why the phrase was used. I use colloquial terms to lessen the blow. People are easily offended when critiqued, and the use of lighthearted phrases tends to change how things are recieved. With that said, you have no idea where I was educated or how many different ways I have learned to communicate. To assume your way superior... Well Americans have an amusing euphemism using the word assume I am sure you are privy to.
I'm really sorry if I came across too strong. It seems as though the written word doesn't do flippant. I was just amusing myself. All the best to you.
Gone to a better place
  • #82,043
  • Nov 7, 2019 7:15am Nov 7, 2019 7:15am
Are you aiming for 110 yen?
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Ninja trader Return This Year: na
  • #82,044
  • Nov 7, 2019 10:49am Nov 7, 2019 10:49am
Quoting olderekg
hypothesis1 break and retest of 109.00 might push price to August highs then back down. {image}
August highs cleared. price might be headed to clear stops(liquidity) of retail traders who went long from the psy. level 109.00
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At its best, change itself becomes a lifestyle.
  • #82,045
  • Nov 7, 2019 11:45am Nov 7, 2019 11:45am
a daily close above 109.5 could be an attractive buy towards 110.5+
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #82,046
  • Nov 7, 2019 12:39pm Nov 7, 2019 12:39pm
109.460 end of the rally and then the pressure on the level between 109.3 to 109 / 109.8 until the end of this week
  • #82,047
  • Nov 8, 2019 7:18am Nov 8, 2019 7:18am
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  • #82,048
  • Nov 8, 2019 7:48am Nov 8, 2019 7:48am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post12606977
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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #82,049
  • Nov 8, 2019 10:27am Nov 8, 2019 10:27am
Did I just see a Double Top pattern in H1?
  • #82,050
  • Nov 8, 2019 11:45am Nov 8, 2019 11:45am
hypothesis1
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At its best, change itself becomes a lifestyle.
  • #82,051
  • Edited Nov 11, 2019 1:34pm Nov 10, 2019 3:37pm | Edited Nov 11, 2019 1:34pm
Here's my take on the USDJPY, from the technical perspective of a swing trader.

On the weekly time frame, the order flow context and the predominance of bullish candlesticks among recently printed ones favour bulls. We may expect a bullish continuation to target the 111.080 horizontal resistance before a bearish turnaround. Nevertheless, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) will incentivize bears for a southward drive. It is important to remember that the bigger technical market operation is within a falling channel (red).

Technicals and the order flow on the daily time frame favour bulls. I am bullish USDJPY. Nevertheless, a significant breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will negate the bullish bias.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #82,052
  • Nov 11, 2019 2:21am Nov 11, 2019 2:21am
Distribution example on the USDJPY market
This is a small-scale distribution on TF 1h.

 

  1. Buyers receive an increased profit from rising prices. Everyone wants to be buyers. However…
  2. Look at the dynamics of prices and the relationship to volumes. Growth slows, but volume remains high. EVRT. This means the resistance (by professional Limit sell orders).
  3. SB. Supply Bar after a bar of indecision. Selling pressure confirms the weakness at 109.40.
  4. After this elegant SLKB, the market receives a bullish momentum.
  5. However, look at activity on growth after SLKB. This is no demand. The Chart says it is too expensive to buy.
  6. However, inexperienced traders enter the long. Perhaps they use the signals of their lagging indicators.
  7. The trap for buyers slams. The market drops sharply at high volume. This is SB, as well as a bearish change in the character of market behavior.
  8. Wave ND.
  9. Wave S.
  10. Buyers (they were recently in the majority) close at a loss.


Actually, you can play a short-term raise. In favor of this idea you have minor bullish arguments:

11) Bounce from the downward channel line
12) Activation of stop-loss buyers at a level that shows a blue thin horizontal line.

But buying is a high-risk idea as there is a zone of weakness on top. Assess your chances.
Hope this review has been helpful, thanks for reading. Visit my thread

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Oleg Alexandrov, market analyst. Find me in Google
  • #82,053
  • Nov 11, 2019 11:20am Nov 11, 2019 11:20am
Quoting KeenPips
Here's my take on the YSDJPY, from the technical perspective of a swing trader. On the weekly time frame, the order flow context and the predominance of bullish candlesticks among recently printed ones favour bulls. We may expect a bullish continuation to target the 111.080 horizontal resistance before a bearish turnaround. Nevertheless, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) will incentivize bears for a southward drive. It is important to remember that the bigger technical market operation is within a falling channel (red)....
Thanks Keenpips.
Gone to a better place
  • #82,054
  • Nov 11, 2019 1:36pm Nov 11, 2019 1:36pm
Thanks for your encouraging comment.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks Keenpips.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #82,055
  • Nov 11, 2019 11:32pm Nov 11, 2019 11:32pm
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #82,056
  • Nov 12, 2019 7:32am Nov 12, 2019 7:32am
Quoting olegchartist
Distribution example on the USDJPY market This is a small-scale distribution on TF 1h. Buyers receive an increased profit from rising prices. Everyone wants to be buyers. However… Look at the dynamics of prices and the relationship to volumes. Growth slows, but volume remains high. EVRT. This means the resistance (by professional Limit sell orders). SB. Supply Bar after a bar of indecision. Selling pressure confirms the weakness at 109.40. After this elegant SLKB, the market receives a bullish momentum. However, look at activity on growth after...
Oleg.. On the first day we closed at a high of over 5 months. Is that not worth mentioning? On the second day (8th November) there was a net range of 6 pips.
Gone to a better place
  • #82,057
  • Nov 12, 2019 7:33am Nov 12, 2019 7:33am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{image}
He is speaking at Economic Club of New York;. It may be relevant.
Gone to a better place
  • #82,058
  • Nov 12, 2019 7:58am Nov 12, 2019 7:58am
Quoting olderekg
hypothesis1 {image}

Get a grip! Where is hypothesis 2? It is simple, really:

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And here is a chart:

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Gone to a better place
  • #82,059
  • Nov 12, 2019 10:05pm Nov 12, 2019 10:05pm
A bit light on for for opinions here today, so I'll throw my position into the thread. I really wasn't sure about the NZD red news today, so I avoided it. I have already bought , sold and bought UJ today today and this is my final position, at BE with a good profit locked for the day. It's got a possible 4H hammer, last week was bullish, it might do a sneaky break up.. then again it might not. I love BE, eliminate hindsight bias, and give a trade a go. Targeting 109.550, and if I get stopped out that's ok too. Glad I didn't long AUS/USD (and if i had, not locked in a profit) what a rejection ! USD dollar might survive Trump and his tariff ups and downs. Who knows. It's in the 2nd half Asian dead zone now, so I doubt we'll know for another 4-6 hours if these are real legs or not. USD red news also coming tonight...
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  • #82,060
  • Nov 13, 2019 12:13am Nov 13, 2019 12:13am
109.00 seems to have some gravity lately. limited movement below and better above. the 2 possibilities i see are, make a move up towards the gap then back down for a retest, or hang out for a just above and consolidating for a while with a retest for a move higher. i would like to think that the hourly close above 109.00 has significance. time will tell.
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