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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #681
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:11am Oct 29, 2019 5:11am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hi aaven, My DCs are not defined based on retracement percentages. I simply wait until I see a CONTRARY Tidane Trend signal on a lower timeframe. Example: A Sell basket on the H4. A valid DC for me would be a Buy signal on the m15/H1 depending on what I perceive is ongoing in the market. Once I get a Buy signal, I BEGIN to look for reasons (on the m15/H1) to re-enter a Sell trade in the direction of the prevailing Sell basket (on the H4). I hope this is not confusing. What informs my entering a Sell position? 1. Fundamentals: Like today...
To further flesh this point out using a current example...

Potential DCs plotted on the C14 H1
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Same lines plotted on the C14 m15
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*Study these charts (if you want), look at them...until you get it.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #682
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:17am Oct 29, 2019 5:17am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"GBPUSD - Will Boris Get His Vote?

It's been a quiet lackluster night of trade in FX with most pairs hugging narrow 20 point ranges as traders awaited the election vote in UK Parliament and the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

In Asia, the kiwi saw a bit of turbulence first rising on news that the New Zealand superannuation fund may direct more of its investments internally which was positive for the currency, then quickly falling on news of possible concerns that S&P would remove its credit rating. In the end, the pair traded at .6350 after rising as high as .6375 in Asia session trade.

Cable was wobbly as well with traders keeping a keen eye on the UK Parliament vote for an early election. So far PM Johnson has failed in his every attempt to force an early election, but this simple bill with just a date holds the most promise.

Trading in sterling remains volatile, but if the UK Parliament okays the election vote the pairs could see a relief bounce to 1.2900. The conventional wisdom is that current polling favors a Tory majority which would help solidify the Brexit deal and provide investors with a resolution to the matter. However, UK elections can be incredibly finicky with voters often defying the polls. If the end result of Mr. Johnson's gambit is that the UK has a hung Parliament the Brexit crisis could get worse, not better with the January 31st deadline bearing on the government. For now, the market only cares about the election vote and if Mr. Johnson gets his wish the pair should bounce." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #683
  • Oct 29, 2019 5:23am Oct 29, 2019 5:23am
Quoting mixedbags
{image} Discounted?
today AUDJPY is leading the pack, yesterday was EURJPY.
Just need to identify the leader.

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  • #684
  • Oct 29, 2019 6:32am Oct 29, 2019 6:32am
Today Correlation for C5
NZD is out of sync

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  • #685
  • Oct 29, 2019 6:56am Oct 29, 2019 6:56am
One last chart here, can use offline H1 to take some off the table as it complete it cycle

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That's all
  • #686
  • Oct 29, 2019 8:16am Oct 29, 2019 8:16am
Quoting mixedbags
One last chart here, can use offline H1 to take some off the table as it complete it cycle {image} That's all
Great contributions mixedbags. I am following closely. Please keep on sharing.

Thank you.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #687
  • Oct 29, 2019 8:19am Oct 29, 2019 8:19am
Quoting volumeprice
{quote} I decided to scrap HAS altogether as it is triple smoothed and difficult for me to anticipate when it is about to switch. I would then replace Tidane with BB and enter/exit early if I am sure that it is gonna close beyond its outer bands, this is not possible to do with HAS...
...The best thing about all this is, I can trade with my mobile phone. Good setup for those with day jobs like me.{image}
Hey VP, great post.

Quick question: What indicator via the MT4 Mobile trading platform, in your estimation, would give the closest approximation of HAS? I ask because many times I am mobile and it would really be great if I could use an "alternative" indicator (which is provided on the Mobile app) as a visual guide until I can get back on my trade station.

I know a VPS would solve that issue but I don't quite need one at the moment.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #688
  • Oct 29, 2019 3:46pm Oct 29, 2019 3:46pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"FX: Could USD Pop on FOMC? Plus BoC Outlook

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates for the third time this year and the US dollar is trading strongly ahead of the monetary policy announcement. USD/JPY hovers right underneath 109, its strongest level in nearly 2 months which is unusual because the prospect of easing should be negative not positive for the currency. However with Fed fund futures showing a 94% chance of a cut, the performance of the dollar confirms that investors expect this to be the central bank's last move of the year. If they are right, the dollar could extend its gains after the rate decision. Throughout this year, we've seen currencies rally after easing on numerous occasions including the September FOMC and ECB because of guidance, which sets expectations for forward looking policy actions.

In the case of the Fed, an October cut would mark the third consecutive move by the central bank. The last time we had a series of back to back moves this long was in 2008. We know from the last policy meeting that the Fed is divided and there's a subset of policymakers who do not believe further easing is necessary. Two FOMC members voted against a cut in September and that number goes up to five when non-voting members are included. Five who agreed with the cut that month did not see further moves this year.

The economy weakened since then last meeting with retail sales falling, wage growth slowing, prices easing and service sector activity moderating. But there was also good news - the rate of unemployment in the US hit a 50 year low, housing market activity improved and stocks hit record highs. So while the central bank could justify another rate cut, it probably won't be unanimous and Fed Chair Powell could downplay the need for additional moves. If that's the case, USD/JPY will surge above 109 and could even hit 109.50 after the Fed lowers rates. We also expect a decent pullback in NZD/USD as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the last major central bank that could realistically lower interest rates this year.

However USD/JPY could see profit taking ahead of the rate decision. Third quarter GDP numbers are scheduled for release and between the drop in retail sales and widening of the trade deficit, growth is expected to slow in the third quarter. Considering that the market is looking for the Fed to ease, no one will be surprised by softer numbers.

The Canadian dollar will also be in focus on Wednesday with a Bank of Canada policy announcement on the calendar. Although the moves in the greenback will be limited ahead of FOMC, if the Bank of Canada maintains their optimistic / neutral outlook, we could see new lows in the currency. When they last met, the BoC left rates unchanged and talked about the ongoing strength in the labor market, pickup in wages and and overall strength in the economy. This time, they have to consider the impact of weaker consumer spending, lower CPI, softer GDP growth and moderation in housing. The labor market is still strong with Canada adding more than 50K jobs in September. Wage growth should be firmer as well but weakness in the rest of the economy along with the slowdown in the US could lead to more cautious comments from the BoC. If that happens, today's recovery in USD/CAD will turn into a sustainable bottom in the currency, especially if the US dollar rallies. " - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #689
  • Edited 11:56pm Oct 29, 2019 9:30pm | Edited 11:56pm
Hi Ty!
Can you add me to the Basket Knights Private Skype Group?
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  • #690
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:47am Oct 30, 2019 6:47am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Will the Fed Signal a Pause?

FX markets were steady ahead of key event risk in the North American session today with most majors slightly up against the dollar as traders prepared for the FOMC decision at 16:00 GMT.

In Asia, the Australia CPI data came inline at 0.5% vs. 0.5% eyed having very little impact on Aussie as the inflation news essentially confirmed a steady as she goes monetary policy by the RBA which is seen to be on pause for now at least until December. The Aussie held firm rising to .6875 in European dealing.

Both euro and cable were higher with the later running through stops at the 1.2900 figure before coming in for some profit-taking. UK Parliament approved a snap election for December 12 so the focus in the UK will now be on politics and electioneering with Boris Johnson expected to win a majority. There is a clear sense of Brexit fatigue amongst the UK public and Mr. Corbyn offering a very weak alternative to Mr. Johnson's chaotic style of governorship the UK public may simply choose to opt for lesser of two evils. Still, it is always precarious to handicap UK elections so the market convention may be wrong.

For today the focus will shift to North America where both the Fed and the BOC hold policy meetings, with the Fed expected to lower rates by another 25bp. Many analysts have remarked at the absurdity of the Fed easing monetary policy as a time of all-time highs for the equity market, but the critics have it wrong. Equities are at all-time highs precisely because the Fed is easing. There is certainly no fundamental reason for stocks to rally as earnings continue to decline and miss expectations and the current rally is nothing more than multiple expansion.

The Fed meanwhile is caught between a rock and a hard place as it would like to end stimulus and allow the economy to regain strength organically while realizing just how difficult the task is. Even the slightest hint of monetary tightening is sure to throw the capital markets into a tizzy, create liquidity shortages in most securities and instantly depress consumer sentiment which remains shaky despite seemingly strong economic data.

The Fed is fully aware that despite higher equity prices the interbank market continues to have liquidity and credit issues and it now has increased its credit line for the repo market to more than 120 billion per month. Therefore it's highly unlikely that Mr. Powell will assume any hawkish posture given the fragility of the system underneath but the more interesting question is whether he will offer an unabashedly dovish forecast going forward. With equities markets anticipating a full-on monetary spigot anything less could cause a sell on disappointment and could take dollar down with it." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #691
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:49am Oct 30, 2019 6:49am
Quoting sangnt0904
Hi Ty! Can you add me to the Basket Knights Private Skype Group? {image} {image}
Hi sangnt0904,

Welcome to the Basket Knights thread. Unfortunately (for now) your status doesn't allow me send you a PM.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #692
  • Oct 30, 2019 6:58am Oct 30, 2019 6:58am
Hello good afternoon, i have a question, Already tried to search but did not find, where do I position my stop loss after entry?

Thanks form Portugal
  • #693
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:20am Oct 30, 2019 7:20am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hi sangnt0904, Welcome to the Basket Knights thread. Unfortunately (for now) your status doesn't allow me send you a PM. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Can I share my Skype username here?
  • #694
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:47am Oct 30, 2019 7:47am
Quoting Zeuspt
Hello good afternoon, i have a question, Already tried to search but did not find, where do I position my stop loss after entry? Thanks form Portugal
Hello Zeuspt. Welcome to our Round Table.

You need to search or read harder I guess. I remember making a very VERY detailed post about the VARIOUS ways we you could handle Stop Losses.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #695
  • Oct 30, 2019 7:51am Oct 30, 2019 7:51am
Quoting sangnt0904
{quote} Can I share my Skype username here?
No need for that sangnt0904.

Just be patient. A few more posts by you and you should become eligible to receive PMs. So my advice would be: Keep on contributing.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #696
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:39pm Oct 30, 2019 4:39pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...0 pips banked so far with -284 pips floating. {image} *Just so some of you can see that DDs exist in this system... Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
C12 H4 is now signaling a Buy basket.

*I would PAUSE before jumping into this new basket due to the "shape" of the C14 basket (*see visuals below). As I mentioned in the quote above, the C12 may be ranging...
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Also consider other factors.

Simply put, I will NOT be entering any Buy baskets at this moment...I will wait for a buy DC before opening any trades.

I will ALSO not be closing my Sell basket trades ALL at once - I will allow the SLs to be hit. This will give this new Buy basket time to prove itself. For the record: My AJs have hit their SL zones with my AUs approaching same. Every other Sell C14 pair is still valid (i.e. yet to hit their SL zones).

If this is confusing, sorry about that - it's just my way of trading.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #697
  • Edited Oct 31, 2019 3:37am Oct 30, 2019 8:06pm | Edited Oct 31, 2019 3:37am
In terms of price action it's all just looking like a double top before the drain opens up. Lots of factors at work here so I'm also very leery of the buy signals at this time.

Nice thread @TyLami !!

Sail on!
  • #698
  • Oct 31, 2019 12:26am Oct 31, 2019 12:26am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 is now signaling a Buy basket. *I would PAUSE before jumping into this new basket due to the "shape" of the C14 basket (*see visuals below). As I mentioned in the quote above, the C12 may be ranging... {image} Also consider other factors. Simply put, I will NOT be entering any Buy baskets at this moment...I will wait for a buy DC before opening any trades. I will ALSO not be closing my Sell basket trades ALL at once - I will allow the SLs to be hit. This will give this new Buy basket time to prove itself. For the record: My AJs have...
Quote
C12 H4 is now signaling a Buy basket.
*I would PAUSE before jumping into this new basket due to the "shape" of the C14 basket (*see visuals below). As I mentioned in the quote above, the C12 may be ranging...

@TyLamai -- I was recently introduced to your thread and basket trading by @bishdotun -- and I'm hooked. I've been using a variation of C12-H4, but my trading signals look very similar to yours. Another difference is I like using 12/3 for the Tidane (Bollinger Bands) settings. Again, the signals are similar to 20/2, but with a bit more (i.e. finer) granularity. The 12/3 settings I'm using provided a strong BUY signal a couple of days ago which I took and harvested a few hundred pips.

So -- now to my rookie question -- and please don't take this the wrong way. I'm definitely NOT questioning your advice -- this is an EXCELLENT thread...

With regards to the new BUY signal, why the hand-wringing? Why not keep things simple and just go with it? If it works out then you make some pips, and if it doesn't then you'll get a transition signal (i.e. opposite trend) and you'll close your BUY basket and open a new SELL basket. You might incur a small loss but if you have faith in Tidane then the probability is still in your favor.

I've recently come from a reversal trading strategy -- and there we are always concerned about "head fakes" -- i.e. fake positives. But in a trend-following strategy such as Tidane there is no such thing as a fake positive -- in my opinion. What may appear as a short-lived trend in H4 is a super trend at M30. In other words -- if Tidane signals a new trend then there really is a new trend. And if it is only short-lived, why over-think it? Take it for a short ride and if it later returns to the previous trend then jump onboard that one. And if there is a reason to second-guess a Tidane signal then, of course, I'm really interested to learn and understand why.

Your basket trading and use of Tidane is the best. And it seems I really have to work hard at screwing it up. So, I wonder why people don't gravitate to looking for simplifying assumptions rather than making it more complicated than it needs to be. Again -- just a perspective from a rookie basket trader.

Also, I should probably note -- that as a programmer then by nature I look for ways to simplify because a strategy that requires a lot of discretionary decision-making is too difficult to code.
  • #699
  • Oct 31, 2019 2:32am Oct 31, 2019 2:32am
I prefer Tidane 28/3. @TY uses 20/2 (I guess) and R4M seem to prefer 12/3.

KOS uses CCI 32/6 (I guess). He has mastered this for years.

Tidane 28/3 will keep you out of many head fakes but you will be leaving many pips on the table. You choose.

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  • #700
  • Oct 31, 2019 2:58am Oct 31, 2019 2:58am
Quoting bishopdotun
I prefer Tidane 28/3. @TY uses 20/2 (I guess) and R4M seem to prefer 12/3. KOS uses CCI 32/6 (I guess). He has mastered this for years. Tidane 28/3 will keep you out of many head fakes but you will be leaving many pips on the table. You choose. {image}
Thanks @bishopdotun. Since you responded -- let's extend the discussion. To my mind, when it comes to trend-following there is no such thing as a "head fake" -- and that was the point of my question. That is, either everything is ranging or everything is trending -- depending on which time frame you choose to view the tick data. With the exception of the first open tick, all time frames get the exact same tick data. I think head fakes only occur with reversal strategies where an extreme price occurs and you're thinking you'll trade away, but the price continues to move in the extreme direction (i.e. waterfall). What people here might consider a nice H4 trend will appear ranging when viewed from D1 or W1 or MN1. And what appears to be ranging in H4 appears like a super trend at M30. So -- which is it? Which time frame is right? Many trend-following strategies will drop down to the time frame where the trend is most apparent and open trades there. And when the trend appears at a higher time frame then they will move up to the higher time frame.

From the point of view of automated trading, it's important to find ways to move away from discretionary decision making. So my post was prompted by @TyLamai's discretionary decision to pass on the Tidane signal. Does that mean we don't trust Tidane? Or do we trust Tidane sometimes and not at other times? I don't know. That was what I was hoping to get a better feeling for.
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