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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #601
  • Oct 17, 2019 4:59am Oct 17, 2019 4:59am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Buy basket is still valid...+1,709 pips banked so far with -8 pips floating. {image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
C12 H4 Buy basket is still valid...+2,954 pips banked so far with +205 pips floating.
Attached Image


The above includes the trades I opened from my post here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12565899

and those I closed which I mentioned in the post here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12565472

I now have ONLY four positions running on EG sells.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #602
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:43am Oct 17, 2019 5:43am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Buy basket is still valid...+2,954 pips banked so far with +205 pips floating. {image} The above includes the trades I opened from my post here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12565899 and those I closed which I mentioned in the post here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12565472 I now have ONLY four positions running on EG sells. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
All positions banked!...+3,038 pips banked so far with 0 pips floating.
Attached Image


I'll wait and see if another DC presents itself.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #603
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:51am Oct 17, 2019 5:51am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} All positions banked!...+3,038 pips banked so far with 0 pips floating. {image} I'll wait and see if another DC presents itself. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
That's a truck load...scratch that; a boat load of pips, congrats Ty...
  • #604
  • Oct 17, 2019 6:01am Oct 17, 2019 6:01am
Quoting aaven
{quote} That's a truck load...scratch that; a boat load of pips, congrats Ty...
Lol! I would agree aaven BUT...I guess I was lucky that time - everything went according to plan.

Hope you got a few too.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #605
  • Oct 17, 2019 6:16am Oct 17, 2019 6:16am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Lol! I would agree aaven BUT...I guess I was lucky that time - everything went according to plan. Hope you got a few too. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Well Ty, you are trading according to a plan-so more often than not, luck has to be on your side...
  • #606
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:02pm Oct 17, 2019 5:02pm
This have been my most profitable week so far.

Be careful leaving your trades this weekend. UK will vote Brexit proposal. Therefore a big gap is possible.
Attached Image
  • #607
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:10pm Oct 17, 2019 5:10pm
Quoting volumeprice
This have been my most profitable week so far. Be careful leaving your trades this weekend. UK will vote Brexit proposal. Therefore a big gap is possible. {image}
Well done VP. Great trading there!

Agreed concerning leaving trades open but I'll add: I might be looking at placing well-positioned pending orders on GBP pairs with SLs in place (just before market close on Friday) just in case we get this "deal" approved...

So far though I have ZERO trades open and I'm happy with that.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #608
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:24pm Oct 17, 2019 5:24pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"GBP Pops then Drops on Brexit Deal as Traders Await Parliament Approval

The UK finally convinced the EU to endorse their Brexit withdrawal agreement. When the announcement was made early this morning, sterling jumped more than 170 pips in a matter of minutes. However it sold off just as quickly as investors turned their focus to the odds of Parliamentary approval. Nearly all of the initial gains were lost by the start of the NY session but as the day progressed, traders dipped their toes back into the currency. We think that the gains in sterling are sustainable because even though Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces an uphill battle to collect all of the votes needed from lawmakers to seal the deal, members of Parliament won't want to risk another 3 years of policy gridlock or worse - an unruly no deal Brexit. Its true that Johnson hasn't won one Parliamentary vote, he's lost his majority and faces stiff resistance from the DUP. However this is the closest we've been to an orderly exit in years and probably the best deal they'll get from the EU.

The new Brexit agreement bears many similarities to Theresa May's proposal with the biggest different being the Northern Irish border. May's solution was to keep all of Britain in the European customs union, which Brexiteers vehemently opposed. In Johnson's deal, there is no hard land border and the entire UK would leave the EU customs union with the exception of Northern Ireland, which would be required to adhere to the same maze of EU customs rules and procedures on trading of goods - this in effect puts a customs and regulatory border down in the Irish Sea.

Now, it all hinges on Super Saturday where Parliament will hold marathon session to determine if they support Johnson's deal. If they approve the new withdrawal agreement, there are 2 paths. Parliament fast tracks the deal into UK law and they leave the EU on October 31st as scheduled or they get a technical extension to debate the details and set a new date for departure. In the EU's eyes, a deal is done so they'll agree to any extension. Either scenario should drive GBP/USD back to 1.30 and beyond. However if Parliament rejects Johnson's Brexit agreement, there could be a second referendum or a general election and an almost certain collapse in GBP.

Meanwhile another round of weaker US data drove the dollar lower against all of the major currencies. Housing starts and building permits declined in the month of September with starts falling by the largest amount in 7 months. The Philadelphia Fed survey also pulled back, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity that was confirmed by the larger pullback in industrial production. Coming on the heels of yesterday's softer retail sales report, today's numbers reinforced expectations for a Fed cut later this month. So far we've seen very little pullback in USD/JPY and if the odds of easing is as realistic as the market expects, we think the pair is due for a deeper correction towards 108.

The best performing currency today was the Australian dollar which shot higher on the back of better than expected labor data. While job growth slowed to 14.7K from 37.9K, the unemployment rate dipped to 5.2%. Full time jobs increased 26K as part time jobs fell 11.4K. These numbers tell us that despite the Reserve Bank's recent rate cut, the labor market is Australia is tight which reduces the chance of further easing form the central bank. We think the RBA is done for the year and with expectations building for another Fed cut, AUD/USD could squeeze up to 70 cents." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #609
  • Oct 17, 2019 5:34pm Oct 17, 2019 5:34pm
Quoting TyLamai
If they approve the new withdrawal agreement, there are 2 paths. Parliament fast tracks the deal into UK law and they leave the EU on October 31st as scheduled or they get a technical extension to debate the details and set a new date for departure. In the EU's eyes, a deal is done so they'll agree to any extension. Either scenario should drive GBP/USD back to 1.30 and beyond. However if Parliament rejects Johnson's Brexit agreement, there could be a[/highlight]...
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #610
  • Oct 18, 2019 6:47am Oct 18, 2019 6:47am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"How Much Further Could Pound Rally?

In sharp contrast to last night's wild swings, price action in FX today was considerably more muted as traders awaited the Brexit deal vote in UK Parliament on Saturday.

The eco calendar was barren across the sessions today with only Chinese data released during Asian trade. The eco data was mixed but generally stable with GBP coming in at 6.0% vs. 6.1% eyed while Industrial Production was markedly better at 5.8% vs. 5.0%.

The news helped keep Aussie bid which remained near 1-month highs on market view that trade war dynamics in China have generally stabilized and the labor conditions in Oz were good enough to keep RBA neutral for the time being. If there is any positive news on the US-China trade war front over the next week or so then AUDUSD could break out to fresh highs at .6900.

As to Brexit, the UK Parliament vote looks to be very close with pro-Brexit Labor MPs looking to be the key swing votes. A ratification vote would no doubt produce a knee jerk positive move for cable with the pair likely gapping above the 1.3000 level on the open Sunday night, but much of the good news has already been priced in as the pair is up nearly nine big figures off the lows.

One of the false assumptions in our opinion is that once the Brexit fog is lifted UK economy will see a renaissance of investment and rebound in growth. We think that's inordinately optimistic given the fresh new barriers UK citizens will face and the general lack of growth on the continent as a whole. Furthermore, once unshackled from the Brexit quagmire, the BOE may, in fact, turn dovish rather hawkish if it feels that the banking system requires further liquidity to stabilize in a post-deal environment. The UK is one of the most indebted economies in the G-20 universe and now that it will be out of EU, its sovereign debt will be under much greater scrutiny as the country will need to rely even more on its capital account surplus to finance trade deficits which could expand even further.

For now, however, the focus will be strictly on the UK Parliament vote. If the vote should fail, the Brexit drama will only intensify as Mr. Johnson will be forced to ask the EU for an extension, but he has yet to confirm that he will do so. In any case, today's compression in volatility in the pound is just a lull as massive moves are expected either way on Sunday open." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management

*Have fun with the fundies!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #611
  • Oct 19, 2019 1:27pm Oct 19, 2019 1:27pm
Quoting TyLamai
Fundies: Truths and Rumours. "How Much Further Could Pound Rally? In sharp contrast to last night's wild swings, price action in FX today was considerably more muted as traders awaited the Brexit deal vote in UK Parliament on Saturday. The eco calendar was barren across the sessions today with only Chinese data released during Asian trade. The eco data was mixed but generally stable with GBP coming in at 6.0% vs. 6.1% eyed while Industrial Production was markedly better at 5.8% vs. 5.0%. The news helped keep Aussie bid which remained near 1-month...
Greetings TY

So Boris got another roasting on the HoC today. We would expect the short time frame to at least drop to the resistance line on the channel shown? I'm not sure though that this C5 basket trend would respect the H4 buy status come Monday.

Regards

Degsie
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #612
  • Oct 19, 2019 4:56pm Oct 19, 2019 4:56pm
Quoting Degsie
{quote} Greetings TY So Boris got another roasting on the HoC today. We would expect the short time frame to at least drop to the resistance line on the channel shown? I'm not sure though that this C5 basket trend would respect the H4 buy status come Monday. Regards Degsie {image}
Greetings Degsie,

Hope you are having a swell weekend so far.

Quote
We would expect the short time frame to at least drop to the resistance line on the channel shown? I'm not sure though that this C5 basket trend would respect the H4 buy status come Monday

Well what I can say about this is that come next week, Price will do one of two things:

#1. We'd get a DC providing the opportunity to re-enter Buys at better Prices

OR

#2. A H4 Sell basket signal.

*See attached visual.

Since we can't predict Price, we can only position ourselves to take advantage of Price.

We'll see what the week brings - more Drama ahead I guess.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w9f1a_#TyC5#12H4.png Size: 48 KB
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #613
  • Oct 21, 2019 3:02am Oct 21, 2019 3:02am
Here is my offline chart, kindly PM me the group link..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #TyC5#05H4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #614
  • Oct 21, 2019 5:42am Oct 21, 2019 5:42am
Quoting mbae
Here is my offline chart, kindly PM me the group link.. {image}
Welcome mbae.

PM sent.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #615
  • Oct 21, 2019 6:18am Oct 21, 2019 6:18am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Are Commodity Dollars Signaling a Broader Risk on Rally?

The dollar was weaker across the board on lively Monday trading in FX as the existential threat hard crash out of the UK out of the EU disappeared over the weekend with the passage of Letwin amendment that forced PM Johnson to ask for a delay in Brexit in case UK Parliament failed to ratify the deal in time of the October 31st deadline.

The odds of passing the Brexit deal as negotiated by Mr. Johnson are essentially 50-50, although the latest count suggests that he may have a slight edge in getting a majority in the House of Commons. Still, there are several Parliamentary obstacles that could stand in the way of a fully ratified deal including amendments that call for a full customs union and a possible 2nd referendum.

Regardless of the complexities at hand, the markets appeared to have been assured that delay will be the backup outcome providing an element of relief for cable which managed to trade through the 1.3000 figure before running into some profit-taking.

Elsewhere, the rally in risk-on FX continued with both Aussie and kiwi climbing to fresh multi-week highs as the former eyed the .6900 figure while the later cleared .64000. There was no significant news on overnight trade - indeed the whole G-11 eco calendar is barren today. Rather the move in commodity appears to be a short-covering relief rally supported by better equity flows globally.

At .6450 and .7000 both kiwi and Aussie are facing longer-term resistance and could once again run out of momentum as range trading persists. But the price action of the past several months suggests that both risk on pairs may have set a longer-term bottom and therefore could be signaling a broader risk-on rally in other assets which could surprise market participants given the generally downcast fundamental data in global GDP." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #616
  • Oct 21, 2019 9:21pm Oct 21, 2019 9:21pm
Hi @TyLamai, here is my offline chart.. can you please pm me the BasketKnightsPSG group link

Thank you..
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  • #617
  • Oct 22, 2019 4:24am Oct 22, 2019 4:24am
Quoting cunxing
Hi @TyLamai, here is my offline chart.. can you please pm me the BasketKnightsPSG group link Thank you.. {image}
Hi cunxing. Welcome to the Basket Knights thread.

Tried to send you a PM. Couldn't. Check your settings.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #618
  • Oct 22, 2019 6:09am Oct 22, 2019 6:09am
What you see is an m15 DC.

What I see is a Brexit Deal Vote slated for later in the British HoC.: Boris Johnson Finally Gets to Put His Brexit Deal to the Vote

What I advice (especially if you have itchy fingers) is to look to the CAD or RB7 basket (if you must) and be patient with the C14 (for now).

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #619
  • Oct 22, 2019 6:16am Oct 22, 2019 6:16am
hi ty

here my offline chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 54 KB

please pm the group link
  • #620
  • Oct 22, 2019 6:17am Oct 22, 2019 6:17am
Quoting TyLamai
What you see is an m15 DC. What I see is a Brexit Deal Vote slated for later in the British HoC.: Boris Johnson Finally Gets to Put His Brexit Deal to the Vote What I advice (especially if you have itchy fingers) is to look to the CAD or RB7 basket (if you must) and be patient with the C14 (for now). Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
What I'm saying is:

What if these come out bad for the CAD...or good but ignored (a.k.a. "factored in")...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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