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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #498,981
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:00pm Oct 17, 2019 1:00pm
there they go for the stop losses
  • #498,982
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:16pm Oct 17, 2019 1:16pm
Forex but community of living we aspire pray to god
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  • #498,983
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:20pm Oct 17, 2019 1:20pm
still feel like a stab at 1.29 before the close.
  • #498,984
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:28pm Oct 17, 2019 1:28pm
Quoting asgcorp
going into weekend, definitely a no-no to hold any exposure in GBPUSD. brokers already limiting leverage, that's a big red flag. If you got any exposure I'd cut it on Friday. Move might be massive. I figure odds are stacked in bulls favor though. The stakes are very high, as we are too close to the ultimate deadline now. If Parliament votes a green light for the Deal, GU will fly. 3200-3400 is very very likely. One of the reasons I think odds are stacked in bulls favor. COT data, posted over weekend. Hedge fund exposure on sell side is maxed out....
Nothing can be said until Monday. Let us wait.
Intraday only.
  • #498,985
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:31pm Oct 17, 2019 1:31pm
1.28622 is only zyco feeling nothing about it i can put any number
  • #498,986
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:35pm Oct 17, 2019 1:35pm
something will make dxy go up.
  • #498,987
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:40pm Oct 17, 2019 1:40pm
Hope everyone had a safe days trading! Days like today are where emotions like FOMO can really punish you! Its important to stick to your strategy and your risk management no matter what !
  • #498,988
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:49pm Oct 17, 2019 1:49pm
some IB commentary on recent GU performance

Though off its five-month low by 1.2988, GBP/USD remains bid, holding at 1.2860 +0.31% Thursday, on the heels of today's Brexit deal announcement.
Cable's meteoric rise, up 5.5% from its Oct. 8 low by 1.2196 , has run into resistance ahead of 1.3000.
No doubt some backing and filling is in order as recent longs take profit, awaiting parliament's vote.
GBP short positioning, on the IMM, had been diminishing after the passage of the Benn Act, which took no-deal Brexit off the table.

As of the most recent IMM spec data release GBP shorts held 73,210 contracts -- consisting of 102,701 contracts short and 29,482 long.
This Friday's IMM data release of the net position change in the Oct. 9-15 period should show a significant reduction in shorts, as the bulk of the 5.5% GBP/USD rally occurred within that reporting period.

Options market activity hints that the upbeat Brexit tones has led to a rise in GBP/USD volatility and a drop in short-term 25d RR volatility, as parliament's intentions on Brexit are far from certain, hinting at lower GBP/USD levels in the front end of the curve .
Remember parliament rejected PM May's Brexit deal repeatedly.

With significant Brexit and UK political uncertainty remaining and a severely reduced GBP/USD short-position, GBP/USD bullish momentum will likely slow as Brexit eyes the finish line .
  • #498,989
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:51pm Oct 17, 2019 1:51pm
just imagine the sense of relief when we ' ll have this friggin Breksick out of the way ppphhhhheeeeewwwwwwwwwww
  • #498,990
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:55pm Oct 17, 2019 1:55pm
it's possible that there's some selling, even if the news/outcome is good. Rally getting way overextended.

DXY H4 hints at some sort of pullback. Although I don't see a trend change in DX at least not until end of month.
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  • #498,991
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:55pm Oct 17, 2019 1:55pm
Quoting asgcorp
some IB commentary on recent GU performance Though off its five-month low by 1.2988, GBP/USD remains bid, holding at 1.2860 +0.31% Thursday, on the heels of today's Brexit deal announcement. Cable's meteoric rise, up 5.5% from its Oct. 8 low by 1.2196 , has run into resistance ahead of 1.3000. No doubt some backing and filling is in order as recent longs take profit, awaiting parliament's vote. GBP short positioning, on the IMM, had been diminishing after the passage of the Benn Act, which took no-deal Brexit off the table. As of the most recent...

They're also saying BoJo's deal is worse than May's.... I see volatility, for sure, but will cut my losses and sit on the sidelines till this news comes out.
I'm leaning towards further disarray and Parliament blocking Boris.
  • #498,992
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:56pm Oct 17, 2019 1:56pm
Can we get 1.28500.. today... been holding a short for so long... losing patience...
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #498,993
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:58pm Oct 17, 2019 1:58pm
Quoting montygoldy
Can we get 1.28500.. today... been holding a short for so long... losing patience...
same... just watching that price move like molasses
  • #498,994
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:59pm Oct 17, 2019 1:59pm
Quoting Ra.
{quote} They're also saying BoJo's deal is worse than May's.... I see volatility, for sure, but will cut my losses and sit on the sidelines till this news comes out. I'm leaning towards further disarray and Parliament blocking Boris.
betting firms are already giving Deal vote as busted , so another extension is looming and we ' ll have to drag on with this mess for god knows how long
  • #498,995
  • Oct 17, 2019 1:59pm Oct 17, 2019 1:59pm
GU up almost 5% MTD
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  • #498,996
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:02pm Oct 17, 2019 2:02pm
On another note. I'm a big fan of ranges. Obviously you can't use weekly/monthly to make any projections now.

But quarterly range comes in handy. Past 10 is 700-800 points.
Low in Q4 so far was 2200. + 800 (on high end of q range) = 3000.

So all-in-all, close to running on borrowed range in Q4.

This is not to say that we can't hit say 1.3100 later on.
Just putting some perspective on things, that's all.
  • #498,997
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:03pm Oct 17, 2019 2:03pm
Quoting MXT
{quote} betting firms are already giving Deal vote as busted , so another extension is looming and we ' ll have to drag on with this mess for god knows how long
IMO, deal will never happen. EU lets UK do this, AND Britain goes on to regain economic strength, then the rest of the bread winners in the EU will topple like dominoes.

It's in their best interest for Brexit to not happen. They're just dragging it on to make a show of it. Another popular vote will be taken and I guarantee you, people will vote remain...
  • #498,998
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:05pm Oct 17, 2019 2:05pm
Quoting montygoldy
Can we get 1.28500.. today... been holding a short for so long... losing patience...
not sure this is happening today. M3.
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  • #498,999
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:07pm Oct 17, 2019 2:07pm
Anyone on this thread straddling options on GBP crosses? Im thinking the weekend spread is going to be massive.
  • #499,000
  • Oct 17, 2019 2:08pm Oct 17, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting Ra.
{quote} IMO, deal will never happen. EU lets UK do this, AND Britain goes on to regain economic strength, then the rest of the bread winners in the EU will topple like dominoes. It's in their best interest for Brexit to not happen. They're just dragging it on to make a show of it. Another popular vote will be taken and I guarantee you, people will vote remain...
even if it doesn't, rejection won't be a Black Swan event, like some are predicting (1000 points limit down @ open).
Cause extension is looming, and as you say, shit will drag on forever.
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