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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #498,221
  • Edited 11:41pm Oct 15, 2019 11:20pm | Edited 11:41pm
No good wave up but still running crazy top extension from 2423! Now limit 2696 intact and so another big leg up try over previous high possible to end the leg from 2513! Probable pa. take care.
In weekly testing tl, breaks down limit 2582 will confirm rejection, otherwise breakout for next levels up.
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #498,222
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:29pm Oct 15, 2019 11:29pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} With 60% of Forex Factory retail traders bearish for GBPUSD, you are not alone. Bank love retailers...
in lot size it's more like 80%+. was 95% before the short squeeze.
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  • #498,223
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:42pm Oct 15, 2019 11:42pm
Quoting fontu
No good wave up but still running crazy top extension from 2423! Now limit 2696 intact and so another big leg up try over previous high possible to end the leg from 2513! Probable pa. take care. In weekly testing tl, breaks down limit 2582 will confirm rejection, otherwise breakout for next levels up. {image} {image}
i see 1.31 before oct 31

Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} i see 1.31 before oct 31
1.2850 for today
  • #498,224
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:46pm Oct 15, 2019 11:46pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I'm not making judgements of retail trading styles, just quoting data and how it's usually inverse to maket behaviour. Average return for those short is -3.7%. For those long it is -0.1%. Roby Turbo is telling us nearly everyone is long based on the presumption they would have bought after the bullish spike. However, the data shows most are short.....
in general if we are talking retail traders ..

90 percent of retail traders actually do not trade with the trend . They love to try and pick tops and bottoms against a trend . Over the years I have mentored hundreds of traders to break this habit . The trends is our lover

so what they do is oh gbpusd kisses 1 2500 let's sell .. for no reason other than it hit a resistance . Daily range on gbpusd was over extended yesterday .. about 40 more than normal but still many traders in here were selling ... for a scalp maybe but what starts at a scalp turns out to be " let's move the stop 50 pip more .. oh no it's coming towards my stop let's move it 50 more " and before they know it they have 200 drawdown and shitting their pants

what roby is saying is in general very true . Markets do not like wide spread bars as we saw last week on gbp daily .. they are often trap moves . But it's not normal times for gbp at the moment .. it's moves are being driven by positive Brexit news

I only value a few books out of the many out there . master the markets by tom Williams and trading in the shadow of the smart money by Gavin Holmes . They are on the subject of volume spread analysis and how the markets actually work . I trade using the style detailed in those books .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #498,225
  • Oct 15, 2019 11:57pm Oct 15, 2019 11:57pm
good points, Malcolm. Also noteworthy: trends don't change in the middle of nowhere - we are only half way through the month.
Week kicked off as bullish, likely will close in bull mode.
Month is bullish (coming out of strong DB), bullish close is very likely as well.

Maybe bears can get some action later towards end of the month.
  • #498,226
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:00am Oct 16, 2019 12:00am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} i see 1.31 before oct 31 {quote} 1.2850 for today
Possible but short lived bull life on 2 limits now 2696 and 2582. And weekly still not over to have next scenerios, crazy may fail at any time though target now goes to 2864 and 2988.
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #498,227
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:01am Oct 16, 2019 12:01am
I love Fibonacci numbers [ series ] but as weighted ema on chart, not as levels
  • #498,228
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:05am Oct 16, 2019 12:05am
bullish structure in september 2019 on h1
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  • #498,229
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:06am Oct 16, 2019 12:06am
fast forward today
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  • #498,230
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:06am Oct 16, 2019 12:06am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Possible but short lived bull life on 2 limits now 2696 and 2582. And weekly still not over to have next scenerios, crazy may fail at any time though target now goes to 2864 and 2988.
cable` completed its avg weekly range at 2764

any move above is purely momentum based

Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} cable` completed its avg weekly range at 2764 any move above is purely momentum based
as long as 13 weighted ema is trending i am not interested in shorts
  • #498,231
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:22am Oct 16, 2019 12:22am
GBP/USD - Brexit Headlines To Lead, But A Positive Setup path open to 1.3000

 

  1. Off 0.1%, profit taking into the 1.4% offshore bounce, EUR/GBP -1.4%
  2. Brexit deal getting closer, but key differences remain
  3. Boris does not have a majority in parliament, so a deal may not pass
  4. Economists expect a Brexit delay, then a free trade deal
  5. Charts, daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs climb, positive setup
  6. Targets 1.2837, 61.8% of 2019 Mar/Sep fall, then blue sky to 1.3045 76.4%
  7. Close below 1.2550 Sep high needed to end the technical topside bias

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  • #498,232
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:23am Oct 16, 2019 12:23am
USD: Tactical Weakness Likely To Extend But Beneficiaries To Vary: 3 Themes To Watch - Citi

Citi discusses the USD tactical outlook and sees a scope for varied levels of weakness against other G10 and EMFX.

"(1) Fed rate cut coupled with US political tensions (Trump impeachment proceedings) - Tactical weakness in USD likely with JPY and Gold expected to be the key beneficiaries.
(2) Positive US – China trade developments - USD weakness likely against Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD & CAD) as well as Asia EM; Safe havens (JPY & Gold) to also likely weaken across the board (ex USD).
(3) Progress on Brexit - USD likely to weaken against EUR and GBP; safe haven CHF likely to decline against both EUR and GBP," Citi notes.
  • #498,233
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:24am Oct 16, 2019 12:24am
Quoting tantra
No touch 200 ema - 5 min today, let's see
  • #498,234
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:29am Oct 16, 2019 12:29am
trump wants a weaker usd, has proposed 50 year bonds sale
  • #498,235
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:30am Oct 16, 2019 12:30am
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Should negotiations go well, then perhaps we could see EU leaders meet up late in the day to give the green light on a draft deal ahead of the European Council summit tomorrow.
  • #498,236
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:34am Oct 16, 2019 12:34am
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yes yes yes
  • #498,237
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:36am Oct 16, 2019 12:36am
this is actually a possible outcome, Moty.
  • #498,238
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:40am Oct 16, 2019 12:40am
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}Should negotiations go well, then perhaps we could see EU leaders meet up late in the day to give the green light on a draft deal ahead of the European Council summit tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} {image}
using monthly ATR

Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} {image} {quote} using monthly ATR
if it breaks below m15 weighted 144 ema i will love to short the crap out of cable, till then its just a bullish retracement
  • #498,239
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:03am Oct 16, 2019 1:03am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} {image} {quote} using monthly ATR {quote} if it breaks below m15 weighted 144 ema i will love to short the crap out of cable, till then its just a bullish retracement
stopped -6
  • #498,240
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:09am Oct 16, 2019 1:09am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} in general if we are talking retail traders .. 90 percent of retail traders actually do not trade with the trend . They love to try and pick tops and bottoms against a trend . Over the years I have mentored hundreds of traders to break this habit . The trends is our lover so what they do is oh gbpusd kisses 1 2500 let's sell .. for no reason other than it hit a resistance . Daily range on gbpusd was over extended yesterday .. about 40 more than normal but still many traders in here were selling ... for a scalp maybe but what starts at a...
Yes, exactly.
Retailers try to pick tops and bottoms and go against the emerging trend.
They will continue to go against it as they keep telling themselves "It will turn soon".


I understand what Roby was saying about retailers getting trapped by large bullish/bearish bars. It happens often.

But,

The actual data at this point tells us this is not happening. The FACT is, most retailers are currently short (and with larger lots).

Roby is making presumptions about retail positions, telling us nearly everyone is LONG without looking at the data.

He is spreading false information.
Come with me if you want to live....
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