Cable Update (GBPUSD)

apparently Johnson has agreed on Irish Sea Border , and this would be a major step forward

but he has done so under the clause that NI would leave the EU Customs Union but not the EU Tariff Union , meaning that formally NI leaves the EU but under a Tariff Scheme would be still paying duties to the EU

Hello mate how are you I hope you read my post to you . As a traderI don’t like to see blow accounts. One works hard and it’s not easy to attain the psychological part of trading but over time one hopes to learn and tackle this problem . As I said you have the tools just horn them . Regards E

Slim Jim

I have read your post, and the truth of the pounds has been too much for me and for the past two days I've been trading the oil and the Dax.
I saw the fall from 1.27827 and straight into the short and this black pair gone straight back up.
i am Really despises this pair .
Too bad , becouse I was already in Long at Euro dollar

will it see the thin red line

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/bre...eeded-20191015

yea it ' s just driving us nuts , back and forth , back and forth

there won 't be a deal until there ' s a deal , no more rumors , drafts , deadlines , backstops , extensions , ifs , buts , when and if the guys are ready , we ' ll just wait and see

meanwhile Scotland is already looking to launch a 2nd independence referendum

Mid you hate gbpusd you will really hate Dax when it stops tending ... it's a real bitch and made me want to give up trading . It can really go into nasty consolidation zones and screw your mind

and you are trading oil yet hate gbpusd ? I hate oil it's a whippy piece of crap and you need 100 point stops to make 150

Best piece of news I've heard in a long time, Zombieland Double Tap coming to a cinema near you. Way more important than Brexit ending

All i can say is that i really love trading crude oil cadjpy. THOUGH NOT THAT VOLATILE BUT FITS MY STRATEGY

Crude oil is not volatile ? It moves 200 pips a day in a whipping chop suey soul and account destroying manner

how long have you traded it ? One day ?

Not volatilr at all

100 up hard retrace 80 that quickly got reversed 80 and then 130 drop

thsts just today

yup definitely not volatile 😂

Close enough for government work. Now im looking to see if it will turn. 77% still sitting short so im not sure it will just yet but maybe another pump with low volume will give me something to work with

Here are five scenarios:
1) A deal is reached and hardliners back it
In this scenario, the PM convinces the Brexiteers that letting NI drift away – proposals that he objected in the past – is the best possible option to get Brexit done. Labour MPs from Leave-voting constituencies to back it, and it is then set for sailing through parliament on Saturday, October 19.
GBP/USD would surge and perhaps hit 1.32. The probability is medium.
Markets desire a soft deal – perhaps the Norwegian model – and preferably no Brexit at all. However, the pound has been pricing in a no-deal as late as September, and its recovery does not price in an accord – just a short delay. The rally we have seen may only be the beginning.
2) Deal without support
The DUP may convince Conservative hardliners to reject the agreement, and Labour MPs would refuse to back a "Tory Brexit" in this scenario. However, all sides may agree that elections are the way out – and the UK asks for an extension. Johnson may be convinced that a new House of Commons would provide the seal of approval.
In this case, the pound may drift lower on uncertainty, but not collapse. It could undo the recent gains and fall to around 1.22. The probability is medium-high.
A victory for Johnson may seal the deal, while a Labour-Liberal Democrat win may trigger a second referendum and eventually revoke Brexit. Despite uncertainty and markets' preferred options, the downside is limited.
3) Agree to meet again soon
London and Brussels may conclude that substantial progress has been made but not enough to declare victory. The idea of an emergency summit – before the end of October – has already been floated and may turn into reality. In this scenario, both sides agree to continue with around-the-clock talks to finalize the accord by the date of the summit.
Brexit would be delayed in this scenario – but only by a few days or weeks. While the PM would be forced to ask for an extension until January 31, 2020, the EU would grant only a short delay, in the spirit of getting a deal done shortly.
This scenario, which has a high probability, would probably keep GBP/USD at the current broad range of 1.26 to 1.2750.
It would be a continuation of the current situation.
4) No agreement and forced extension
If the UK and the EU fail to agree on a pathway to Brexit, Britain will be on course to ask for an extension – but more significant uncertainty may send it lower – even if an imminent no-deal is averted.
In this scenario, Johnson is forced to ask for a three-month extension, but the EU decides on a delay until June 2020. That would open the door to holding a second referendum – which requires time to organize – but markets may be wary of the endless drag.
This scenario, which has a low probability, will probably send the pound gradually lower, perhaps initially to 1.23-1.24, and then further down as economic data weigh on it.
5) A total breakup of talks and a hard Brexit
If this significant push to reach a deal fails, the EU may be growing tired of endless Brexit negotiations – just like the British public.
Even if the PM fails to circumvent the Benn Act and ask for an extension – he may get the EU to reject it. They may not require his help.
French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders may want the UK to get over with it and leave – even if the price is economic damage.
This scenario of a no-deal Brexit has very low probability – and would send GBP/USD plunging to 1.10.
Conclusion
The Brexit talks are at a delicate stage, and GBP/USD is already experiencing high volatility. The situation may change rapidly around the EU Summit and go in the five scenarios listed above.

source : fxstreet.

Learning.

15 OCT

52+131

Brexit deal seem to go through. So untill such time the official announcement is made GU is likely to push up further. Buying dips is good idea.

And it is better to trade gu only in asia and max london open. Better to skip in NY session.

I see to ignore it for next 2 weeks! better to avoid world of randomness!
GU!! 1.2819 in sight, fibo 161%

And now Sturgeon wants another referendum in 2020....