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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #501
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:33pm Oct 6, 2019 1:33pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} yeah. It's very "cheap", until you lose your entire capital! Then it's not cheap anymore and it becomes the most expensive market in the world. Look, as most things in life, cheap = low quality! Or in the case of Forex trading it's "cheap" because there is very little value in it. I would happily pay big commissions to trade some market where I can find many inefficiencies.
If you are losing your whole account to the spread in fx then how can you possibly expect to make money trading a market with 20 times the transaction cost? You goofy guys who complain about the spread are hilarious. Tell me where the spread is less costly?
  • #502
  • Oct 6, 2019 2:08pm Oct 6, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting Aussi
here is a two questions if good traders showed people their account summery say for 5 years 1, what good would it do for other traders 2, how could they use that information to trade better
Good point.
Eeh?
EA - Osoi Kame V7 All Time Profit: $2,340
  • #503
  • Oct 6, 2019 3:46pm Oct 6, 2019 3:46pm
Quoting imsuccesful
{quote} I am successful trader for almost a year now without a month in loss. I only trade Pound Pairs and on real account. Will post some screenshots to motivate you its entirely possible to be successful in this business but only with a calm set of mind and sticking to your strategy. I have a 80% + success rate. Will post some of my trades too
Simplify your life for others and yourself, just register your live account and show how you trade :-)
STTS
LongTerm-Emer-FX Return This Year: na
  • #504
  • Oct 7, 2019 5:31am Oct 7, 2019 5:31am
DAX Future trading costs per round turn: ~0.25p.

Daily Vola: 150p.

If you can't make money there, you're just too stupid.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #505
  • Oct 7, 2019 5:39am Oct 7, 2019 5:39am
There are no trading systems that work forever. Every system sooner or later breaks down and goes into drawdown. Some are recovering from this, some are not.
  • #506
  • Oct 7, 2019 10:01pm Oct 7, 2019 10:01pm
Inserted Video
  • #507
  • Oct 8, 2019 2:06am Oct 8, 2019 2:06am
I've been around for 7 years now and have watched hundredths of losing accounts. My experience is that all of them lost way more on average than the spread will suggest assuming the market is random. Which by itself might indicate that money can possibly be made trading.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #508
  • Oct 8, 2019 2:13am Oct 8, 2019 2:13am
Quoting Scorp1on1
{quote} Lol..Why I subscribe for it..If I am already making more than that..Well, I am glad you know about it now..so You and your dog can make money
Good for you. I am not in need either, but apparently there are people that are in need, since they claim that is not even possible to be profitable.. In fact, I wonder that no one (of those) has commented on your post..
Return To Disorder
  • #509
  • Oct 8, 2019 2:27am Oct 8, 2019 2:27am
Quoting Rennaissance
I've been around for 7 years now and have watched hundredths of losing accounts. My experience is that all of them lost way more on average than the spread will suggest assuming the market is random. Which by itself might indicate that money can possibly be made trading.
This is not possible! Please check your math again. And don't forget to add the slippage and the swaps to the whole calculation. And also keep in mind that many people lose money during news events/breakouts when the spreads and slippage are much higher.

The fact is that the market is mostly random (if not 100%) and on average the total amount of lost retail capital is equal to the total cost! (How many times I have to repeat this???) It's a simple arithmetic. Nothing complicated here.

But most people still don't get it....

In each sample You will see some temporary outliers here and there in both directions. It's part of the normal distribution. Extreme winners, and extreme losers. But, if you look at the complete statistics with large samples you will discover exactly what I'm trying to tell you.
  • #510
  • Oct 8, 2019 4:12am Oct 8, 2019 4:12am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is not possible! Please check your math again. And don't forget to add the slippage and the swaps to the whole calculation. And also keep in mind that many people lose money during news events/breakouts when the spreads and slippage are much higher. The fact is that the market is mostly random (if not 100%) and on average the total amount of lost retail capital is equal to the total cost! (How many times I have to repeat this???) It's a simple arithmetic. Nothing complicated here. But most people still don't get it.... In each sample...
Exactly my point that the distribution is not normal according to my observation. The average loss in these accounts should have been may be -10% a year, but the reality showed way larger figures. So, the markets might not be random but design in a way that most people loose most of their money most of the times. My explanation is that

1. People take way more risk than they should.
2. They hold on to losing positions way longer than they should.
3. Are quick to cash in on their profits.

So the markets move to exploit these weaknesses as best as possible.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #511
  • Oct 8, 2019 4:27am Oct 8, 2019 4:27am
Quoting michisuperfr
DAX Future trading costs per round turn: ~0.25p. Daily Vola: 150p. If you can't make money there, you're just too stupid.
I'm curious. Please ( if it is not too much asked ) give insight...
  • #512
  • Edited 5:08am Oct 8, 2019 4:47am | Edited 5:08am
Quoting Aussi
here is a two questions if good traders showed people their account summery say for 5 years 1, what good would it do for other traders 2, how could they use that information to trade better
I'm really surprised! Haven't you got the point yet? Fine, I'll tell you.

It's about motivation mate! When you see a good engineer, you keep telling yourself I'm gonna be that good one day; I'll show every one I can be even better than that. That guy is making a lot of money, why not me? Let's try and try harder...

Things are very different in Forex. Where are we gonna get at the end of the day? How do I know there's a future in it? Is it a big myth? It's not about being hard working, smart, creative, ... It's about possibilities. When the possibility of something is zero or close to it, it's a miserable attampt to be good at it!

Like Einstein once said about "roulette", the only way to be consistently winning in that game is to steal money from the casino while they're distracted!

You think probability is NOT zero? Ok, show us ...
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #513
  • Oct 8, 2019 4:51am Oct 8, 2019 4:51am
josephcom, what courses have you taken on trading
  • #514
  • Oct 8, 2019 4:57am Oct 8, 2019 4:57am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Exactly my point that the distribution is not normal according to my observation. The average loss in these accounts should have been may be -10% a year, but the reality showed way larger figures. So, the markets might not be random but design in a way that most people loose most of their money most of the times. My explanation is that 1. People take way more risk than they should. 2. They hold on to losing positions way longer than they should. 3. Are quick to cash in on their profits. So the markets move to...
You see, this is where you get it wrong. I know this because I was thinking the exact same way in the past, until I took the time to make deeper research and to look at the raw numbers.

There is no need for the market to move in some special way in order for everyone to lose their money in the long run. Random + negative skew due to cost is enough.
The Forex price movement on a tick by tick basis is 50/50 most of the time. And the only exceptions are the news events. But funny enough, the news events are impossible to trade today due to slippage, high cost, and brokers freezing their price feeds and delaying their executions during these events. You think all of this is by accident? The brokers and the market makers perfectly know that the news events are the only thing which is not random in the markets. Information is the real edge in trading! And they will do everything they can to prevent people from taking profits during news. They simply remove the liquidity and create gaps in the price. So they remove the edge from the market.

In the past, news trading was completely different game! The market was very slow to react and everyone with the right sources could make money.
You get the news quick and you look at the price - almost nothing happens at first! And a 10-20-30 seconds later you start to see a small trend developing and after a 1-2 minutes the real move starts you see the market jumping 100 pips. This is what trading was 20-30 years ago. But back then the problem was that you cannot execute the trades fast enough. You had to call your broker on the phone... it was a different time and different problems. But the people who traded on the floors and people with good connections had a real reliable edge because they can execute trades immediately. Most of them made millions.
Now...it's all random. No more edges. No more millions.....
Now If you need something real, you have to look at other alternative markets mostly in the periphery where there is not much competition and things are slow.
  • #515
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:04am Oct 8, 2019 5:04am
Quoting Fader123
josephcom, what courses have you taken on trading
If you mean academic courses, then the answer is none. But I started off with a book called "Macro-Economy ..." to know what is it that central banks are talking about all the time.

Then I went through all the technical/psychological books you can imagine!

Then it came to algorithms, Fourier Series, Genetic craps, ...

Then I found a way to translate the market into a series of 1 and 0 in the same way computers work.

Then I went through D'Alembert, Martingale and alike...

You guess the rest of it for yourself.

Like you know, you can test your strategies/theories "manually" by keeping pressing F12 in Meta Trader and go a long way in a short time. I have 86 Excel spread sheets of all the strategies I've tested manually (took me 18 months).
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #516
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:12am Oct 8, 2019 5:12am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} I'm really surprised! Haven't you got the point yet? Find, I'll you. It's about motivation mate! When you see a good engineer, you keep telling yourself I'm gonna be that good one day; I'll show every one I can be even better than that. That guy is making a lot of money, why not me? Let's try and try harder... The thing is very different in Forex. Where we're gonna get at the end of the day? How do I know there's a future in it? Is it a big myth? It's not about being hard working, smart, creative, ... It's about possibilities. When the possibility...
i do get it , its you that do not get it ,some people do not have the motivation to get out of bed , so some come here because there motivation is to demotivate people >>>> like you mate , lots of people come to forex because of greed and when they find out it they have to learn it the motivation goes and then come to threads like this and tell people how terrible it is , thats the reality of it , lots of people make money from casinos just go to YouTube type in poker tournaments , spent to much time here back to trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #517
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:26am Oct 8, 2019 5:26am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i do get it , its you that do not get it ,some people do not have the motivation to get out of bed , so some come here because there motivation is to demotivate people >>>> like you mate , lots of people come to forex because of greed and when they find out it they have to learn it the motivation goes and then come to threads like this and tell people how terrible it is , thats the reality of it , lots of people make money from casinos just go to YouTube type in poker tournaments , spent to much time here back to trading
OK, get back to your trading; and have Mark Douglas books handy; you gonna need them sooner or later
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #518
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:27am Oct 8, 2019 5:27am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} OK, get back to your trading; and have Mark Douglas books close to you; you gonna need them sooner or later
of course i will
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #519
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:30am Oct 8, 2019 5:30am
https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=951189 my last word
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #520
  • Oct 8, 2019 5:40am Oct 8, 2019 5:40am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You see, this is where you get it wrong. I know this because I was thinking the exact same way in the past, until I took the time to make deeper research and to look at the raw numbers. There is no need for the market to move in some special way in order for everyone to lose their money in the long run. Random + negative skew due to cost is enough. The Forex price movement on a tick by tick basis is 50/50 most of the time. And the only exceptions are the news events. But funny enough, the...
Yeah you probably right about the 50/50 plus commisions. News is the only non random thing about the market also . But I dont think slippage is a problem, or that brokers are out there to get you. I think you should have a superior view about what the news might be. By either fundamental or technical anaylysis.
When you see it, BET big.
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