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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #481
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:21am Oct 6, 2019 4:21am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} thats not what i am thinking and know
My question was not aimed at you
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #482
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:22am Oct 6, 2019 4:22am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
{quote} My question was not aimed at you
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #483
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:44am Oct 6, 2019 4:44am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Good move. That's where the money is (;
Not really. The shares of most brokers are in a downtrend right now.
There is race to zero and as you said the cost of doing business is getting higher every year, while at the same time the commissions are the lowest on record. The profit margins not very high at all.

The new big winners are not the traditional brokers but the HFT black box market makers.
  • #484
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:52am Oct 6, 2019 4:52am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The business model is disturbingly similar.
So you're saying that on every trade there is a 50/50 chance of winning minus the transaction costs.
That's how a casino basicaly works. A casino has the odds in their favor.

It means you believe that on following chart setup there is a 50/50 chance for a long trade to succeed....? well I have a different opinion on that.
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  • #485
  • Oct 6, 2019 6:41am Oct 6, 2019 6:41am
it's all so demotivating.
Who introduced me to this world, is just one year older than me, 3 years of success in forex. An average of 4-5k month.Only 2 month of DD in this year.
Do you talk about sustainability? go to work for a boss, after 3-4 years he can throw you out and there is nothing left. Would this be safer?
He thinks differently from everything that is written here, and guess what? has never attended a forum, a chat, does not reveal his strategy to anyone in detail and does not sell it. In reality then, it is nothing as articulated as so many try to do here.

The usual excuse is "I've never seen a profitable trader, that's why they don't exist"
The reality is that they exist, but they don't go to your forum, they don't talk to you and they think about how to spend and make more money, not about the stochastic crossed with macd

Demotivating, you're just demotivating
  • #486
  • Oct 6, 2019 6:54am Oct 6, 2019 6:54am
Quoting fractalcidal
Been doing this for about 7 years now, I have a system that has been developed using the ol' noggin, if market ranging... I scalp, if trending... jump on the pullbacks. If I get it wrong I let it ride and eventually the market will swing back and hit the target. I don't use any technical indicators as these are usually misleading and confusing. The only indicator I do use is the contrarian, counter-intuitive indicator, I made using a deck of cards. works best when stoned. Hope this helps.
I had epiphany one day after a nice relaxing day. Really helped shape how I see volatility expansion in the markets.
  • #487
  • Edited 3:40pm Oct 6, 2019 7:49am | Edited 3:40pm
Hi,
very good post, well written and I agree with most of it.
I'm on the opposite side, I mean programming is my Achilles' hill but I still believe I can provide long term positive results by manual trading.
I'm not looking for spectacular performance, as I fully realise it's more matter of luck than skill, but for a method which will provide stable above average results in the long run in changing conditions.
In November my account Long-Term EmerFX will be celebrating its 3rd anniversary and I hope it will last much longer. I am aware that my account is small and my scores, as good as they are, won't impress anybody but it's fully transparent. You can see the size of my trades as well as equity.
Last year was difficult, this one is much better but as you know it doesn't mean anything, doesn't quarantee future results but gives hope that I'm on the right track to steady growth. Low volatility of my equity is the best progress I've made this year. We will see how it will work out when market volatility increses.
I wish Forex Factory would come up with ranking of live accounts with history longer than one year to find out how many traders are successful in the long run.
All the best in your searching for profitable trading.
STTS
LongTerm-Emer-FX Return This Year: na
  • #488
  • Oct 6, 2019 9:35am Oct 6, 2019 9:35am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} For example if you have 1000 in the account and you trade EURUSD with 0.5 pips spread and 0.5 pips commission and with average volume of 1 Lot it will take on average only 100 trades to lose 100%.
How is this even possible? To put on the first trade they need 100:1 leverage. When they've lost half the account they need 200:1 leverage. At 75% they need 400:1, and at the end they need 10,000:1.

Regardless, I don't doubt there are newbies who don't understand costs but a $10 cost to trade a $100,000 position is not particularly expensive compared to equities or virtually anything else. And a 10 cent cost to trade a $1,000 position is virtually unheard of outside of fx (albeit costs are coming down).

If these costs are the trouble then trading any financial instruments should be considered cost prohibitive.
  • #489
  • Oct 6, 2019 9:36am Oct 6, 2019 9:36am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
May i ask what are you guys doing on this forum if you think making profit in the long run is impossible? lol
They are still waiting for the holy grail
  • #490
  • Oct 6, 2019 9:59am Oct 6, 2019 9:59am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} No, in the long run, no one wins.... On average, for any time period, the agregated customer funds shows a LOSS that is equal or greater than the total transaction cost for the period.
Do you not see this as a contradiction? If the aggregate of customer losses exceeds the total transaction cost then someone must have won (albeit the winner is not the aggregate trader group). For every loss there is a win.

As best I can tell, fx dealers early on put out a lot of scare-tactic bullshix about how market makers are the devil who will take all the trader's money. This was in their effort to market themselves as "STPs" which of course means they forward your order Straight Through to a market maker .

Meanwhilet the average spread cost on the NYSE is (and has always been at least if not more) 0.5% and on the NASDAQ its is over 0.7% while in fx it is around .01% to .05% (between a tenth to a twentieth the cost). And there is always a cry by people in fx forums about how high those costs are in fx and some of those same crybabies are saying "go buy stocks" .
  • #491
  • Oct 6, 2019 10:25am Oct 6, 2019 10:25am
Quoting Rennaissance
My best advice, take what Is left of your time, money and energy and run. Before it goes to 7,10+ years.
I am successful trader for almost a year now without a month in loss. I only trade Pound Pairs and on real account. Will post some screenshots to motivate you its entirely possible to be successful in this business but only with a calm set of mind and sticking to your strategy. I have a 80% + success rate. Will post some of my trades too
  • #492
  • Oct 6, 2019 10:55am Oct 6, 2019 10:55am
Quoting gian97
it's all so demotivating. Who introduced me to this world, is just one year older than me, 3 years of success in forex. An average of 4-5k month.Only 2 month of DD in this year. Do you talk about sustainability? go to work for a boss, after 3-4 years he can throw you out and there is nothing left. Would this be safer? He thinks differently from everything that is written here, and guess what? has never attended a forum, a chat, does not reveal his strategy to anyone in detail and does not sell it. In reality then, it is nothing as articulated as...
The reason some of us sound so demotivating is because we are realists, we have done deep research on the markets, we have a lot of experience with automated trading and backtesting and last but not least, unlike many of you, we trust the basic math, the probability theory and the statistics.
I don't believe in the mythical stories about these successful super traders hiding in the shadows somewhere. We simply know that such creatures do not exist. It's all smoke and mirrors! And the sooner you understand this - the less damage you will suffer!
  • #493
  • Oct 6, 2019 11:06am Oct 6, 2019 11:06am
Quoting ArbitragAcid
{quote} How is this even possible? To put on the first trade they need 100:1 leverage. When they've lost half the account they need 200:1 leverage. At 75% they need 400:1, and at the end they need 10,000:1. Regardless, I don't doubt there are newbies who don't understand costs but a $10 cost to trade a $100,000 position is not particularly expensive compared to equities or virtually anything else. And a 10 cent cost to trade a $1,000 position is virtually unheard of outside of fx (albeit costs are coming down). If these costs are the trouble then...
It's only a theoretical example to illustrate how the total amount of transaction cost over time will equal the lost capital in your account.
Besides that, if you have lost 50%+ of your capital - you are finished as a trader! You have to make 100% profit just to get back to breakeven!
  • #494
  • Oct 6, 2019 11:16am Oct 6, 2019 11:16am
Quoting rockit
{quote} Did you subscribe to this signal? I mean.. 98%.. everybody and their dog should (be) subscribe(d) to this signal, even GS!
Lol..Why I subscribe for it..If I am already making more than that..Well, I am glad you know about it now..so You and your dog can make money
  • #495
  • Oct 6, 2019 11:51am Oct 6, 2019 11:51am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} It's only a theoretical example to illustrate how the total amount of transaction cost over time will equal the lost capital in your account. Besides that, if you have lost 50%+ of your capital - you are finished as a trader! You have to make 100% profit just to get back to breakeven!

Something like this lol
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Don't mind me.. i'm crazy
  • #496
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:04pm Oct 6, 2019 12:04pm
Quoting Aussi
here is a two questions if good traders showed people their account summery say for 5 years 1, what good would it do for other traders 2, how could they use that information to trade better
Great perspective...well said! Of course, most here would ignore it, because according to most who post here, your success is just the early stage of what will inevitably lead to your doom.

So, how can someone prepare for a career in trading the forex? What are some things that you should understand before you start trading?

i have masters degrees in international economics and international finance from the best business school in US, and interned at the Chicago Fed for a year. In my business career, I owned a consulting firm in Chicago, where I conducted consulting work at the CBOT, learning a lot about the business of trading. In addition, I lead consulting teams at three large US banks, focusing on their trading operations, and lead a team at one of the largest investment firms in the US, focusing on their trading operations and later their treasury ops. I interviewed over 200 bond and forex traders, and have a fair understanding of what they did and how they did things, in the late 1990s and early 2000’s. I have 18 good friends who trade bonds in Chicago, and know 5 forex trading managers at banks on the east coast. These people are among the traders in the trading group I work with. I’ve been trading the forex for over 15 years. There’s money to be made. But only if you know what you need to know, and know where to get that training and education.

If if you want to be a successful forex trader, you need to know more than you know today. For most of you, an apt analogy is, you have taken high school biology and are trying to do open heart surgery. Learning how to be a forex trader is a very worthy objective, but you are not working a realistic timeline. Stop complaining, stop blaming, stop hoping, and get to work.
  • #497
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:56pm Oct 6, 2019 12:56pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} The reason some of us sound so demotivating is because we are realists, we have done deep research on the markets, we have a lot of experience with automated trading and backtesting and last but not least, unlike many of you, we trust the basic math, the probability theory and the statistics. I don't believe in the mythical stories about these successful super traders hiding in the shadows somewhere. We simply know that such creatures do not exist. It's all smoke and mirrors! And the sooner you understand this - the less damage you will...
well said A.

i only beleive in track records. nothing less!

check out Forex Signals. I was once following Nick's monthly account update webinars. at some point he lost 50% of his capital, then stopped the updates. he went into hiding since then. now he is selling forex educational stuff
  • #498
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:05pm Oct 6, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} It's only a theoretical example to illustrate how the total amount of transaction cost over time will equal the lost capital in your account. Besides that, if you have lost 50%+ of your capital - you are finished as a trader! You have to make 100% profit just to get back to breakeven!
This is all true of trading in anything. FX is cheaper to trade than equities or virtually anything else.
  • #499
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:19pm Oct 6, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting ArbitragAcid
{quote} This is all true of trading in anything. FX is cheaper to trade than equities or virtually anything else.
yeah. It's very "cheap", until you lose your entire capital! Then it's not cheap anymore and it becomes the most expensive market in the world.

Look, as most things in life, cheap = low quality! Or in the case of Forex trading it's "cheap" because there is very little value in it.

I would happily pay big commissions to trade some market where I can find many inefficiencies.
  • #500
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:30pm Oct 6, 2019 1:30pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} The reason some of us sound so demotivating is because we are realists, we have done deep research on the markets, we have a lot of experience with automated trading and backtesting and last but not least, unlike many of you, we trust the basic math, the probability theory and the statistics. I don't believe in the mythical stories about these successful super traders hiding in the shadows somewhere. We simply know that such creatures do not exist. It's all smoke and mirrors! And the sooner you understand this - the less damage you will...
I'm sorry, I think you're wrong. Only time will tell who is right. But just because you didn't succeed, it doesn't mean it's impossible. With all respect
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