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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #501
  • Edited 8:35am Oct 6, 2019 8:21am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hi northwind, Thanks for joining in. {quote} I think, just like you said, you probably missed a key set up piece. The reason I say so is: {quote} If memory serves me right, I actually created the template to automatically create C5, C12, and C14 files in H4, H1, and m15 Time frames by default. So check again and see if MAYBE something is up on your end? {quote} When you've sorted out issue #1 above, simply TRY what aaven mentioned in the post above: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12543164 I hope this...
Thanks Ty & aaven.
Twice I have tried deleting everything and starting over from download compressed file at bottom of Post #1.
Made sure all 28 pairs are turned on in Symbols.
Run ForceLoadHistoricalData script, and confirm it was successful in Expert tab.
Run the rest of the steps to set up the H1 and H4 charts.
No joy.
I think the problem is the required templates
! Ty's_BasketCreator_Phase2_(H4+H1+m15 of Core5, Core14 and Core12)
Basket_Create_v3_670et
files aren't in the compressed .zip or .rar file on post #1.

The Template folder only has
Attached Image
Perfidious Pips
  • #502
  • Oct 6, 2019 10:26am Oct 6, 2019 10:26am
Quoting northwind
{quote} Thanks Ty & aaven. Twice I have tried deleting everything and starting over from download compressed file at bottom of Post #1. Made sure all 28 pairs are turned on in Symbols. Run ForceLoadHistoricalData script, and confirm it was successful in Expert tab. Run the rest of the steps to set up the H1 and H4 charts. No joy. I think the problem is the required templates ! Ty's_BasketCreator_Phase2_(H4+H1+m15 of Core5, Core14 and Core12) Basket_Create_v3_670et files aren't in the compressed .zip or .rar file on post #1. The Template folder only...
Hi northwind,

I just went through the process of downloading the rar on post#1. After unrar-ing it I have 3 sample images and 2 folders: MQL4 & Templates.

If this is not the case on your end then we have a problem.

Inside the MQL4 folder you will find the FILES folder which contains the notepads @aaven and I are referring to.

The truth is that you couldn't have come this far in your setting up if the rar on post#1 had issues. But I stand corrected.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #503
  • Oct 6, 2019 10:27am Oct 6, 2019 10:27am
Quoting northwind
{quote} Thanks Ty & aaven. Twice I have tried deleting everything and starting over from download compressed file at bottom of Post #1. Made sure all 28 pairs are turned on in Symbols. Run ForceLoadHistoricalData script, and confirm it was successful in Expert tab. Run the rest of the steps to set up the H1 and H4 charts. No joy. I think the problem is the required templates ! Ty's_BasketCreator_Phase2_(H4+H1+m15 of Core5, Core14 and Core12) Basket_Create_v3_670et files aren't in the compressed .zip or .rar file on post #1. The Template folder only...
Northwind,

1. I am attaching the template "! Ty's_BasketCreator_Phase2_(H4+H1+m15 of Core5, Core14 and Core12)"

2. "Basket_Create_v3_670et" is an indicator and not a template- In fact the above template automatically loads this indicator-no need for us to manually do anything...


Thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl ! Ty's_BasketCreator_Phase2_(H4+H1+m15 of Core5, Core14 and Core12).tpl   4 KB | 279 downloads
  • #504
  • Oct 6, 2019 11:36am Oct 6, 2019 11:36am
Ty,

My Offline Chart. Could you please send me the link for skype.

Thanks

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  • #505
  • Oct 6, 2019 12:20pm Oct 6, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting aaven
Ty, My Offline Chart. Could you please send me the link for skype. Thanks {image}
Done aaven.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #506
  • Oct 6, 2019 1:24pm Oct 6, 2019 1:24pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Hi northwind, I just went through the process of downloading the rar on post#1. After unrar-ing it I have 3 sample images and 2 folders: MQL4 & Templates. If this is not the case on your end then we have a problem. Inside the MQL4 folder you will find the FILES folder which contains the notepads @aaven and I are referring to. The truth is that you couldn't have come this far in your setting up if the rar on post#1 had issues. But I stand corrected. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Thank you Ty & aaven,
Again downloaded .rar file from post#1.
This time it worked. Not sure what was happening before.
Thanks again.
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Perfidious Pips
  • #507
  • Oct 6, 2019 4:20pm Oct 6, 2019 4:20pm
C12 H4 and H1 opened with a gap down...Now what?

Meanwhile, C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...(DD = -381 pips floating).

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #508
  • Oct 7, 2019 2:55am Oct 7, 2019 2:55am
Closed all trades on H1 for a small profit.
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I will hold trades on H4 till...
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  • #509
  • Oct 7, 2019 3:02am Oct 7, 2019 3:02am
Shorts still dominating...
M15 - Short
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H1 - Short
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H4 - Short
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  • #510
  • Oct 7, 2019 3:47am Oct 7, 2019 3:47am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} +592 pips Banked...(-527 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid. {image} AGAIN, I stayed in the trade because: #1. The C12 H4 basket was still signaling a Sell basket (very important!). #2. My SL zone was not nearly even reached. #3. I've made enough profit from this current Sell basket to AFFORD to give it room to run (also very important). Total tally for this present Sell basket = + 1,051 pips (from the last totaling) +592 pips = 1,643 pips banked (with -527 pips floating). I'm not too happy with my current DD but there isn't much...
C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...1,643 pips banked so far with -62 pips floating (*Remember that my DD at one point was upwards of -527 pips!).
Attached Image

Certainly a great day to be a Basket Knight!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
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My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #511
  • Oct 7, 2019 6:20am Oct 7, 2019 6:20am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Why the Bullish Dollar Thesis is Flawed
It's been quiet but a shaky start of the week in FX with risk-off flows dominating the open of EU trade as economic data and geo-political risk continue to weigh on the market.

In Hong Kong, there was no end to the protests which continue to escalate in violence and confrontation. So far China has shown restraint at using military action to quash the demonstrators, but its clear Beijing is itching to quell the unrest.

Additionally, the messaging on the trade negotiation front has turned decidedly negative as the Chinese delegation denied that any progress has been made. The CCP may be making a calculated decision that Trump is a wounded animal at this point and that his chances of reelection are declining.

Although that may be true, the CCP would be miscalculating badly in its assessment that it will be easier to negotiate with the Democrats. Trump has managed to make his anti-China stance a bipartisan issue and the Democrats would be much tougher on any human rights violations in HK than the Trump administration. Much like Hitler made a fateful error to attack Stalin rather than maintain an alliance with him, the CCP may be making a massive tactical mistake not to do a deal with Trump.

A Democratic President focused on corporate reform and human rights abuses would be a much worse opponent for Chinese than Trump.

In the near term, the markets are clearly losing hope that any progress on the trade front will be accomplished and are basically hoping for a "cold peace" that does not further aggravate the global trade structure and create additional slowdown in growth. That seems to wishful thinking at this point as US data, despite the record low unemployment data, is signaling stagnant demand.

Unemployment is a lagging not a leading indicator and peak employment reading often coincide with the start of the recession. More importantly, both job growth and wage growth have slowed markedly suggesting that there will be no massive bump from consumer spending in the Christmas season. The Fed, therefore, will continue to ease into the year-end and more importantly flood the system with dollars as it tries to prevent a lock-up in the repo market. All of this suggests that the bull dollar thesis may be flawed. Despite the horrid data across the pond, the US decoupling thesis is evaporating and that is likely to signal a lower rather higher dollar in months ahead." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Are we seeing the beginnings of making a case for a Buy basket...?

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #512
  • Oct 7, 2019 3:58pm Oct 7, 2019 3:58pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...1,643 pips banked so far with -62 pips floating (*Remember that my DD at one point was upwards of -527 pips!). {image} Certainly a great day to be a Basket Knight! Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image} {image}
C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...+1,767 pips banked so far with -283 pips floating.
Attached Image


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #513
  • Oct 7, 2019 5:17pm Oct 7, 2019 5:17pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Dollar Pops, China is Ready to Deal. Is the Rally Durable?
There are 3 events that could trigger a major rally for the US dollar this week. US-China trade talks, the FOMC minutes and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. This morning, investors were skeptical about trade because Vice Premier He suggested that China would not relent on their industrial policy and state subsidies. While that remains the case, by the end of the day, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said they are ready for a partial deal on points agreed upon already such as purchases of US agricultural products. They will also set out a timeline for working on a broader deal next year. Changes to intellectual property laws or government subsidies however are completely off the table.

The Trump Administration has not indicated whether this offer is acceptable but USD/JPY traded sharply higher on the belief that President Trump will take the win to distract from the impeachment inquiry and drive stocks higher. The big question is what that really means - will the US reward the agreement with a gradual reduction in tariffs. If they do, the rally in USD/JPY and all other Japanese Yen crosses could be durable especially as rate cut expectations fall. But if the US rejects the olive branch and presses for bigger commitments from the Chinese or refuses to reduce tariffs, the dollar will reverse its gains quickly. As we await the US' response, China trade headlines will continue to dominate dollar flows.

Meanwhile we don't expect much from Fed Chairman Powell's comments - on Friday he cast doubt on the need for additional easing by describing the underlying economy as strong but in the context of positive trade headlines, less dovish comments could trigger a larger rally for the dollar. Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut later this month and if the Fed minutes cut those expectations further, we could see USD/JPY hit 108. Considering that 2 members voted against lowering rates at their last meeting, the minutes should be less dovish. Tomorrow's inflation report will take a back seat to these bigger stories because price pressures are generally subdued.

The prospect of a partial trade agreement should have also driven the Australian and New Zealand dollars higher but we did not see much reaction in either currency. Instead, both currencies were the weakest performers today, ending the NY session near the day's lows. This along with the lackluster moves in the Dow reflects skepticism as investors don't see President Trump taking steps to reduce tariffs readily.

The other big story today is the setback to a smooth Brexit. Lord Pentland ruled that Prime Minister Johnson would not be forced to request for a Brexit extension from the EU. He claimed that the PM had agreed to abide by the law and there was no need for "coercive orders" to force the government to do so. Investors were disappointed because a decision to push the Prime Minister's hand would have ruled out a chaotic exit on October 31st. Now we'll have to see whether Johnson stays true to his word. He says the ball is in the EU's court, since he's submitted his proposals. Without being forced to ask for delay, the chance of a no-deal Brexit is 60% or more.

The euro came within a few pips of 1.10 despite weaker German factory orders. Industrial production numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow is likely to be weak. While EUR/USD is a risk currency, the prospect of back to back disappointments in German data means any rally should be capped at 1.10." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #514
  • Oct 7, 2019 10:31pm Oct 7, 2019 10:31pm
M15 - Long
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H1 - Long
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H4 - Still Short
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  • #515
  • Oct 7, 2019 11:31pm Oct 7, 2019 11:31pm
Aloha TyLami,

Interesting thread. Subscribed!

Looking at your Core 5 basket (buying the basket), the net positions for the currencies are:

Long NZD
Long EUR
Long AUD
Short x2 USD
Short x3 JPY
Long x2 GBP

Did you ever consider looking at currency indicies, relative to some EMA?

Ex: From https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/currency-index

Here is JPY index (4 hr bars) with 12 period EMA:

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So JPY is in a downtrend, which makes it good to by the C5 basket. If we repeat this for other indicies, and (for example) see USD down, GBP up, EUR up, NZD up, and AUD up (ideal situation), then we buy C5. If the majority of the currencies are trending the correct direction, then we open the basket long.

There are many currency indices out there (the website is one example), but we can also code into an EA.

Do you use currency indicies in your analysis of when to enter/exit the basket???

Regards,
EZ
  • #516
  • Oct 8, 2019 7:57am Oct 8, 2019 7:57am
Quoting ezcurrency
Aloha TyLami, Interesting thread. Subscribed! Looking at your Core 5 basket (buying the basket), the net positions for the currencies are: Long NZD Long EUR Long AUD Short x2 USD Short x3 JPY Long x2 GBP Did you ever consider looking at currency indicies, relative to some EMA? Ex: From https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/currency-index Here is JPY index (4 hr bars) with 12 period EMA: {image} So JPY is in a downtrend, which makes it good to by the C5 basket. If we repeat this for other indicies, and (for example) see USD down, GBP up,...
Aloha EZ,

Welcome to our Round table!

Quote
Do you use currency indicies in your analysis of when to enter/exit the basket??? Regards, EZ
No EZ - I do not. The C5/12/14 offline basket is complete enough in itself for me. I don't want a case of Analysis Paralysis - lol.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #517
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:03am Oct 8, 2019 8:03am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...+1,767 pips banked so far with -283 pips floating. {image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...+1,882 pips banked so far with -648 pips floating.
Attached Image


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #518
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:06am Oct 8, 2019 8:06am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"FX Sentiment Sours on US-China and Brexit News
After a positive risk session in Asia FX flows flipped completely on news that China may retaliate against US companies after the US announced that it would blacklist eight Chinese high tech companies on human rights violations grounds.

The news completely reversed the feel-good vibes from yesterday after China announced that they were ready to do a partial trade deal with the US. The escalation of tensions ahead of an important round of trade talks is not an encouraging sign and markets reacted accordingly sending USDJPY towards the 107.00 figure.

It will remain to be seen of just how much of dark cloud this latest development will be but if China announced retaliation against major US high tech names like AAPL it could quickly send stocks plummeting and drag USDJPY well below the 107.00 level as the day proceeds.

Meanwhile in the UK enthusiasm about a Brexit deal continued to wane as two sides were still too far apart on the Northern Ireland backstop issue. Ultimately neither side wants to cede sovereignty over the territory and officials are increasingly pessimistic about a deal before the deadline.

Even if no deal is possible, PM Johnson is compelled by the Benn act to ask for an extension so market hopes for some sort status quo remain in place - thus the hold above the 1.2200 figure for cable. But the situation remains fluid and increasingly negative which suggests that the asymmetric risk for sterling may be to the downside.

For today, the focus will be on US-China news as markets await any retaliation announcements from Beijing with both equities and risk FX vulnerable to further selloff." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #519
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:43am Oct 8, 2019 8:43am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Sell basket is still valid...+1,882 pips banked so far with -648 pips floating. {image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Just in case someone's wondering, here's a breakdown of my Selective basket:
Attached Image


As you can see the DD vacillates a great deal. It's down to -473 pips from -648 pips in just about half an hour.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #520
  • Oct 8, 2019 8:50am Oct 8, 2019 8:50am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Just in case someone's wondering, here's a breakdown of my Selective basket: {image} As you can see the DD vacillates a great deal. It's down to -473 pips from -648 pips in just about half an hour. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Ty,

For a current signal on 4HR chart- how many levels of orders do you execute?

I mean, you talked about conserving your ammunition- As per the broker- i am testing- the C5-H4 gave a sell signal on 20th September-One enters a basket of sell orders-Level 1- Market can present multiple re-entry opportunities-so another set of sell orders-Level 2- so, like that- what is the maximum number of level you would entertain?

I apologize if this already been answered- as i have still some reading to do...

Thanks
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