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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #461
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:26am Oct 2, 2019 5:26am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Global Growth Worries Send Risk FX Lower
A clear risk-off pall hit the currency market today with both Asian and European equity bourses in the red on concerns over global growth.

Yesterday's very weak US ISM manufacturing number shocked the market and sent US equities lower as the data showed the worst performance for the sector since the Great Recession.

Up to now, the markets have been operating on the decoupling theory assuming that US growth would pick up in H2 of this year and diverge from the slowdown in Europe and Asia. However, yesterday's data makes clear that slowdown in demand is now fully global and the US may see a further deceleration in months ahead.

Today's ADP data may provide a clue to the strength of employment demand in the US economy, but the market will really focus on tomorrow ISM Non-Manufacturing report which not only provides the best forecast for monthly Non-Farm payrolls figures due Friday but also will show the state of the service sector which makes up more than 70% of the US economy.

If tomorrow's ISM data also misses its mark the sell-off in risk is likely to accelerate hard with USDJPY potentially falling to the 107.00 level before the end of the week. For now, however, FX majors will likely remain within ranges with USDJPY testing 107.50 support while EURUSD tests the 1,0900 level once again as markets try to determine just how severe the global slowdown has become." - Boris Schlossberg


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #462
  • Oct 2, 2019 5:59am Oct 2, 2019 5:59am
Quoting MSuccess
{quote} Hi Howard, did you ever find a solution to this error message? I am experiencing same obstacle. Regards MS
Hi
yes my problem was that I had not enabled auto trading.
Regards
  • #463
  • Oct 2, 2019 10:16am Oct 2, 2019 10:16am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} +98 pips Banked...(+424 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
+285 pips Banked...(+26 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #464
  • Oct 3, 2019 4:42am Oct 3, 2019 4:42am
Hi @all, itīs a nice threat with great ideas.
Let it me upgrade to a more funny/thinking threat.
Torsten
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  • #465
  • Oct 3, 2019 5:21am Oct 3, 2019 5:21am
Quoting SaveAndWise
Hi @all, itīs a nice threat with great ideas. Let it me upgrade to a more funny/thinking threat. Torsten {image}
You are welcome SaveAndWise.

Nice post but I think MAYBE you should try Bitcoin wallets since "fiat currency" inside leather wallets is slowly becoming obsolete...? Lol.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #466
  • Oct 3, 2019 5:33am Oct 3, 2019 5:33am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} +285 pips Banked...(+26 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
+374 pips Banked...(-121 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid.

Heads up: USD Reds.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #467
  • Oct 3, 2019 5:39am Oct 3, 2019 5:39am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"UK PMI Signals Recession but Cable Holds Bid on Brexit Hopes
UK PMI services report dipped below the 50 boom/bust line suggesting that the economy is headed for the recession, but cable ignored the news holding bid at 1.2300 as markets focused on possible progress on Brexit talks.

UK PMI services printed at 49.5 vs. 50.3 eyed as the costs of Brexit uncertainty clearly weighed on UK businesses. September saw the steepest drop in employment since Dec 2009. Job losses were seen in all 3 sectors, with services reporting largest drop in headcounts for 9 years, while manufacturing and construction jobs were shed at rates not seen since Feb 2013 and Dec 2010 respectively.

Output contracted across all three main sectors of the economy for the first time since August 2016, as services joined both manufacturing and construction in reporting falling business activity.

All of this suggests that the UK economy will likely contract in Q3 of this year and that the next move from BOE may have to be a rate cut.

Typically, markets would have taken sterling lower on such dour news, but markets are much more focused on the Brexit negotiations and on that front there appeared to be a scintilla of progress as Irish officials did not completely reject PM Johnson's new proposals for customs arrangements on the Northern Ireland border.

Still, the two sides remain far apart and it is unclear if any sort of a deal may be struck before the October 31 deadline, but the default view in FX is that there will be no hard Brexit for the UK which is keeping cable bid at the 1.2300 level for the time being.
On this side of the pond, the focus will turn to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing report which is due at 14:00 GMT. Markets are looking for a print of 55.1 versus 56.4 the month prior, but worries persist that the number could come in much weaker than that confirming fears that the global economic slowdown has expanded to the US which has been relatively immune to drop off in demand.

USDJPY has already tested the 107.00 level in early Asia session trade and should the number print much weaker than expected than 106.50 could be tested on assumption that Fed may have to cut rates at every meeting til the end of the year." - Boris Schlossberg


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #468
  • Oct 3, 2019 3:47pm Oct 3, 2019 3:47pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} +374 pips Banked...(-121 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid. Heads up: USD Reds. {image} Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image} {image}
+401 pips Banked...(-272 pips floating). H4 Sell basket still valid.
Attached Image


At one point today (after the bleak USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers came out) my DD was up to -551 pips.
Attached Image

I stayed in the trade because:
#1. The C12 H4 basket was still signaling a Sell basket (very important!).
#2. My SL zone was not nearly even reached.
#3. I've made enough profit from this current Sell basket to AFFORD to give it room to run (also very important).

*Note: Always TRY to remember that TIME is also a factor in trading.


Heads up for tomorrow: AUD & USD Reds:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w7d2c_USDreds.png Size: 27 KB



Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #469
  • Oct 3, 2019 3:58pm Oct 3, 2019 3:58pm
Quoting TyLamai
Fundies: Truths and Rumours. "UK PMI Signals Recession but Cable Holds Bid on Brexit Hopes UK PMI services report dipped below the 50 boom/bust line suggesting that the economy is headed for the recession, but cable ignored the news holding bid at 1.2300 as markets focused on possible progress on Brexit talks. UK PMI services printed at 49.5 vs. 50.3 eyed as the costs of Brexit uncertainty clearly weighed on UK businesses. September saw the steepest drop in employment since Dec 2009. Job losses were seen in all 3 sectors, with services reporting...
Thanks for your ongoing support, all appreciated, yes the markets are not boring to say the least, personaly i'm only focusing on shorts and I am looking more and more at daily, weekly and monthly.
  • #470
  • Oct 3, 2019 4:07pm Oct 3, 2019 4:07pm
Trying to squeeze some more out of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY shorts, Greed, should really take the generous cash and run.
  • #471
  • Oct 3, 2019 4:14pm Oct 3, 2019 4:14pm
Quoting Coffeebuff
{quote} Thanks for your ongoing support, all appreciated, yes the markets are not boring to say the least, personaly i'm only focusing on shorts and I am looking more and more at daily, weekly and monthly.
You are welcome Coffeebuff.

Yes, the current risk off sentiment certainly supports sells, what with all the bad news and rumours everywhere.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #472
  • Oct 3, 2019 4:29pm Oct 3, 2019 4:29pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

"Will Non-Farm Payrolls Send Dollar to New Lows?
The hope for a recovery in the last quarter of 2019 disappeared with today's non-manufacturing ISM report. Investors can no longer fool themselves into thinking that the US can escape the global slowdown. After learning that manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in 10 years, ISM reported the weakest service sector activity index since 2016. American businesses are feeling the pain of the slowdown of the economy and the trade war. Unfortunately even with central banks easing monetary policy across the globe, the slowdown will deepen so investors are looking beyond Friday's non-farm payrolls report to the FOMC meeting later this month and the potential for action.

A number as weak as today's ISM should drive the US dollar, Treasury yields and stocks lower across a board. We got a glimpse of that on Tuesday and Wednesday when stocks fell more than 800 points following disappointments in ADP and manufacturing data. The US dollar also dropped across but we saw more restrained selling Thursday even though non-manufacturing ISM is a more significant release. All of this tells us that investors are bracing for a weak jobs number and investors are all but certain that the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates again this year.

Fed fund futures are pricing in 87% chance of a cut on October 30th and a 96% chance of a cut by December 11th. This outlook is far more aggressive than most policymakers may be prepared for. When the central bank cut rates in September, 2 members voted for no change and the majority did not expect additional easing this year. The question now is whether this month's reports will change so many views. While manufacturing was slowing for most of the year, services perked up enough in August for Fed Chairman Powell to say that he expects the economy to remain strong. Investors on the other hand sent the US dollar tumbling lower because they believe that these reports will force the central bank to ease for the third time this year.

Dollar bears will be looking for validation from non-farm payrolls and while economists predict slightly higher job growth, investors are bracing for another ugly report. The arguments favor a weak release. Hiring in the service sector was at a standstill while the manufacturing sector shed jobs at the fastest pace in 5 years according to ISM. ADP also reported weaker private payroll additions explaining the collapse in the Conference Board's consumer sentiment index. The drop in layoffs reported by Challenger and the improvement in the UMich survey won't be enough to offset the deterioration in other reports. Wage growth is also expected to slow and we would not be surprised if the unemployment rate ticked higher.

Positioning for a weak jobs report could pay off but given the volatility this report typically induces, exposure should be limited. If payroll growth is less than 140K and average hourly earnings growth slows to 0.2%, we could see a more durable decline in the dollar that takes USDJPY below 106. However if there's anything in the jobs number that could casts doubt on another round of easing, the dollar will squeeze sharply higher. Stocks on the other hand could react positively to a positive and negative number if investors immediately think that additional easing will be necessary.

Leading Indicators for Non-Farm Payrolls

Arguments for Stronger Payrolls
University of Michigan reports improvement in confidence
Continuing Claims Fall
Challenger Reports 24.8% Drop in Layoffs

Arguments for Weaker Payrolls
Employment Component of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Drops to 5 year low
ADP Employment Change Drops to 135K from 157K
Consumer Confidence Index Declines the Most in 9 Months
Employment Component of ISM Manufacturing Index Drops to 3 year low
Lower 4 Week Average Jobless Claims" - Kathy Lien


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #473
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:48am Oct 4, 2019 12:48am
Hi Ty and all,
After trying M15 Off Line with 7 pairs like 7 EUR, 7 GBP etc ... , I come back on H1 H4 C14 original pairs from Post 1.
Less stressing.

Have a good day
and ... stay ... cool
jf
  • #474
  • Oct 4, 2019 8:39am Oct 4, 2019 8:39am
Where is everybody!? Come on guys NFP couldn't have been THAT bad could it?

Anyway, just in case you were wondering, H4 Sell basket is still valid.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #475
  • Oct 4, 2019 8:39am Oct 4, 2019 8:39am
Quoting le celte
Hi Ty and all, After trying M15 Off Line with 7 pairs like 7 EUR, 7 GBP etc ... , I come back on H1 H4 C14 original pairs from Post 1. Less stressing. Have a good day and ... stay ... cool jf
Noted jf.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #476
  • Oct 4, 2019 9:08am Oct 4, 2019 9:08am
Quoting TyLamai
Where is everybody!?
Ty
Tour thread is in Interacive Trading Folder
It should be in Trading System Folder. Guys are here
Ask for changing?

Santé
jf
  • #477
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:02pm Oct 4, 2019 12:02pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Noted jf. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty

Hi Ty,
i just want to ask to make sure,
after using c14 script i just realise that there is 3 pairs that do the same both in SELL script and in BUY script.
they are EURGBP, GBPCHF and USDCHF, other pairs do opposite in every script (SELL in sell script, and BUY in Buy script)
but those 3 pairs do the same in both script.
can you confirm that this is correct ?
thanks.

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  • #478
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:06pm Oct 4, 2019 12:06pm
Quoting TyLamai
Where is everybody!? Come on guys NFP couldn't have been THAT bad could it? Anyway, just in case you were wondering, H4 Sell basket is still valid. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Waiting to get back in next week. I missed opportiities this week.
EX BBMA trader focusing on REE code.
  • #479
  • Oct 4, 2019 4:01pm Oct 4, 2019 4:01pm
Quoting omahtengah
{quote} Hi Ty, i just want to ask to make sure, after using c14 script i just realise that there is 3 pairs that do the same both in SELL script and in BUY script. they are EURGBP, GBPCHF and USDCHF, other pairs do opposite in every script (SELL in sell script, and BUY in Buy script) but those 3 pairs do the same in both script. can you confirm that this is correct ? thanks. {image}
Yes omahtengah you are correct. This has a lot to do with the history of basketting. But you may change it up to suit your own interpretation of the market sentiment - I do that myself.

You are paying attention.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #480
  • Oct 4, 2019 4:04pm Oct 4, 2019 4:04pm
Quoting Simontw
{quote} Waiting to get back in next week. I missed opportiities this week.
Great. All looks good for that to happen. I must say the Sell basket really showed a great deal of resilience this week! A lot was thrown at it and it withstood it.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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