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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #495,301
  • Sep 28, 2019 4:03pm Sep 28, 2019 4:03pm
Quoting navk
{quote} It is not holiday for most of FF members. Almost everyone logged in today and showed their face.
We are dedicated
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #495,302
  • Sep 28, 2019 8:22pm Sep 28, 2019 8:22pm
Greetings everyone,
here is a little post to help some people understand the logic behind my volume adjusted price (VAP) technique.
Imagine you are a bitcoin exchanger and had four transactions yesterday as follows:

1. Sold $2,000 worth of bitcoin
2. Bought $300 worth of bitcoin
3. Sold $1,000 worth of bitcoin
4. Bought $100 with of bitcoin

What is the EFFECTIVE (or NET) buy/sell volume done?
Buy transactions = $300 + $100 = $400
Sell transactions = $2,000 + $1,000 = $3,000
Net transaction = $3,000 - $400 = $2,600 (sell side)

The effective (or net) transaction done is $2,600 sell.
Now, someone else who is not keeping track of whether the transactions are buy/sell would record the effective transaction differently as shown below:

$2000 + $300 + $1,000 + $100 = $3,400

The value above is the TOTAL volume done ($3,400) while ($2,600 sell) is the EFFECTIVE or NET volume done.

MT4 records TOTAL volume transacted but what we really need to know is the NET volume.

So while you will be seeing price at $3,400 on your MT4 screen, the TRUE price is actually at $2,600 (sell side).

Ordinary price will keep on deceiving you. Until and unless you adjust the price in keeping with the volume and order type, you will not be able to get a TRUE representation of what is happening in the market.

I do hope that this post helps someone understand the need to use VAP instead of ordinary price.

Thank you.
  • #495,303
  • Sep 28, 2019 11:50pm Sep 28, 2019 11:50pm
Quoting Bones
If that pattern fails to confirm it will go to the next res roughly 12775
I agree I am going long Monday or Tuesday with target between 1.26 to 1.27

I think cable is not yet ready to drop

god knows what kind of news will appear to make this last push to 1.26 or 1.27
  • #495,304
  • Sep 29, 2019 1:46am Sep 29, 2019 1:46am
Quoting pipcenturion
Greetings everyone, here is a little post to help some people understand the logic behind my volume adjusted price (VAP) technique. Imagine you are a bitcoin exchanger and had four transactions yesterday as follows: 1. Sold $2,000 worth of bitcoin 2. Bought $300 worth of bitcoin 3. Sold $1,000 worth of bitcoin 4. Bought $100 with of bitcoin What is the EFFECTIVE (or NET) buy/sell volume done? Buy transactions = $300 + $100 = $400 Sell transactions = $2,000 + $1,000 = $3,000 Net transaction = $3,000 - $400 = $2,600 (sell side) The effective (or net)...
Hey pipcenturion, is this a MT4 indicator you run and I think another name for it could be 'Volume Profile'?
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #495,305
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:25am Sep 29, 2019 2:25am
my view still nothing change, yes price will down just to make shadow
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  • #495,306
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:28am Sep 29, 2019 2:28am
no 2700 any time soon. If in doubt, check out the mnt candle. It won't change much - completes on Monday.
  • #495,307
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:31am Sep 29, 2019 2:31am
Quoting asgcorp
no 2700 any time soon. If in doubt, check out the mnt candle. It won't change much - completes on Monday.
Agreed, look at monthly candlestick
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  • #495,308
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:32am Sep 29, 2019 2:32am
Quoting asgcorp
no 2700 any time soon. If in doubt, check out the mnt candle. It won't change much - completes on Monday.
Kangaroos don't hop on one foot. A re-test of Sept lows coming in October if there's any bull case for GBPUSD next few month (delay, other favorable outcomes).
  • #495,309
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:36am Sep 29, 2019 2:36am
My take on GU in October - mild/decent gains early in the month, say 2400-2600 max out
and then as we close in on the deadline (31st) and little progress is made initially, GU will dump
and re-test Sept lows (1950-2000).

Beyond that it's a coin flip. If last minute progress is made and there's a deal to delay then GU
might rally real hard in November. But we won't know until last week of October.

just my 2 cents anyway.
  • #495,310
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:41am Sep 29, 2019 2:41am
November GU options market there's a total of 50 bln USD at 2950, it's some indication that GU might rally hard in November.
  • #495,311
  • Sep 29, 2019 2:49am Sep 29, 2019 2:49am
GU bulls ought to review GU cross charts, not M1, but daily/weekly. Aside from GJ all of them look pretty bleak/dumpy.
  • #495,312
  • Sep 29, 2019 3:12am Sep 29, 2019 3:12am
also quick note on FF SSI data. Someone told me that it's 50/50 GU long/short, well, guess, what, it's 90% long, 10% short.
You need to account for the open position size (lots).
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  • #495,313
  • Sep 29, 2019 3:36am Sep 29, 2019 3:36am
Quoting asgcorp
My take on GU in October - mild/decent gains early in the month, say 2400-2600 max out and then as we close in on the deadline (31st) and little progress is made initially, GU will dump and re-test Sept lows (1950-2000). Beyond that it's a coin flip. If last minute progress is made and there's a deal to delay then GU might rally real hard in November. But we won't know until last week of October. just my 2 cents anyway.
I expect an extension will be sought and granted sooner rather than later.....then election etc.... I dont see a sleepwalk to the end of the month. A further drop next for GBP next week, then reverse .... But Boris is unpredictable so I think it will be a bumpy ride. I am planning on closing shorts by the end of the week though.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #495,314
  • Sep 29, 2019 3:50am Sep 29, 2019 3:50am
Quoting axecap
{quote} I expect an extension will be sought and granted sooner rather than later.....then election etc.... I dont see a sleepwalk to the end of the month. A further drop next for GBP next week, then reverse .... But Boris is unpredictable so I think it will be a bumpy ride. I am planning on closing shorts by the end of the week though.
agree with you overall, yes. Looks like the coming week is setting up to be red. Short selling any bounces/weak rallies makes sense.
Not much in terms of support below, especially if you look at daily.
  • #495,315
  • Sep 29, 2019 4:34am Sep 29, 2019 4:34am
Quoting axecap
{quote} I expect an extension will be sought and granted sooner rather than later.....then election etc.... I dont see a sleepwalk to the end of the month.
A further drop next for GBP next week, then reverse .... But Boris is unpredictable so I think it will be a bumpy ride. I am planning on closing shorts by the end of the week though.
Yes.
Great plan.
Liars will cancel Brexit altogether... But until these "news" it'll drop.
So red few weeks....
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #495,316
  • Sep 29, 2019 4:35am Sep 29, 2019 4:35am
Note spikes too.
Of course

AS MANY OF YOU ASKED FIR, I'LL make ANOTHER Onlinus poster.

Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #495,317
  • Sep 29, 2019 5:05am Sep 29, 2019 5:05am
Quoting pipcenturion
Greetings everyone, here is a little post to help some people understand the logic behind my volume adjusted price (VAP) technique. Imagine you are a bitcoin exchanger and had four transactions yesterday as follows: 1. Sold $2,000 worth of bitcoin 2. Bought $300 worth of bitcoin 3. Sold $1,000 worth of bitcoin 4. Bought $100 with of bitcoin What is the EFFECTIVE (or NET) buy/sell volume done? Buy transactions = $300 + $100 = $400 Sell transactions = $2,000 + $1,000 = $3,000 Net transaction = $3,000 - $400 = $2,600 (sell side) The effective (or net)...
Maybe I am missing something, but firstly isn't the volumes shown on MT4 tick volume, and secondly, since the forex market is not centralized, those tick volumes are only representative of the volumes traded by the particular liquidity provider that your broker uses? While I do think tick volume are useful, but I am struggling to see how you can get actual buy and sell volumes from them??
  • #495,318
  • Sep 29, 2019 5:24am Sep 29, 2019 5:24am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} Maybe I am missing something, but firstly isn't the volumes shown on MT4 tick volume, and secondly, since the forex market is not centralized, those tick volumes are only representative of the volumes traded by the particular liquidity provider that your broker uses? While I do think tick volume are useful, but I am struggling to see how you can get actual buy and sell volumes from them??
Could be wrong here but I think he is using software called 'Volume Profile' or 'Market Profile' so not using MT4 tick volume
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #495,319
  • Sep 29, 2019 6:48am Sep 29, 2019 6:48am
Quoting Han2019
{quote} Maybe I am missing something, but firstly isn't the volumes shown on MT4 tick volume, and secondly, since the forex market is not centralized, those tick volumes are only representative of the volumes traded by the particular liquidity provider that your broker uses? While I do think tick volume are useful, but I am struggling to see how you can get actual buy and sell volumes from them??
The volume reading on whichever Broker's mt4 terminal is sufficient for this exercise. When you think long and hard about how the candles form, you will soon discover how to find the effective buy/sell % using the OHLC of any period.
  • #495,320
  • Sep 29, 2019 6:50am Sep 29, 2019 6:50am
Quoting HaLBot
{quote} Could be wrong here but I think he is using software called 'Volume Profile' or 'Market Profile' so not using MT4 tick volume
This is not volume profile sir.

This is a bit similar to VWAP but not same.
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