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Successful Trading & Determining the Probability of a Trading System 10 replies

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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #361
  • Quote
  • Sep 25, 2019 9:14pm Sep 25, 2019 9:14pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} 1. I'm gonna guess that you feel qualified to define how high? 2. There are no innocent bystanders harmed when you place a losing trade. Are we to believe that your neighbor feels pain when you take a loss? 3. The industry might disagree with you. By the way, which industry?
my broker would be glad to lower my leverage if he could
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #362
  • Quote
  • Edited Sep 26, 2019 12:16am Sep 25, 2019 11:54pm | Edited Sep 26, 2019 12:16am
The enemy that most fall prey to in this game is noise, movements suck the trader into the wrong position and then squeeze as much $ as possible. How to reduce noise or better yet, accept it and use it to advantage? 2 tools help, moving averages, and momentum indicators (of course both are better on higher TF's that further reduce noise). Like a pilot flying on instruments, develop your tools and then trust them. Trust is gained through experience and backtesting. Lindbergh made history in part because of the way he personally helped design and build his plane with the engineers and craftsmen at Ryan. He trusted that team as well as his own expertise and then tested it first across the USA (overland) on the way to NY before the Atlantic hop. You need courage to fade a crazy bar that is purely noise (stop run) when your time honed system tells you what to do, trust your system that you built (and tested) and take action. Even then 100% will not be winners, best you can hope for is + cash flow over the years and some years may even be -. Stops were invented to stop the bleeding from mistakes. The key with this is your ability to find what speaks to you and then actually do it in real time. Don't expect to buy some wonderful hyped $400 (or worse) miracle from someone else for any reasonable price, (if you could it may not work for you anyway, no 2 people think or react alike), even Gann wasn't selling to any real winners, mostly just suckers. NO ONE is going to sell their golden goose. If you can not find your path then any rational person would choose something else to do with their life,
trading is NOT for everybody! Whiners should read and heed, obvious what they should do!
  • #363
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 12:40am Sep 26, 2019 12:40am
You will start winning when you accept that you are gambling, accept the fact that you are a gambler and try to benefit from luck. There is no skill involved in trading. Keep dissecting your charts until you loose a kidney. I've seen people turn gray hair in their 30's because of charts. One friend of mine just last month suffered a heart attack , he had to my understanding lost all his money plus other people's money. I have come to one conclusion after 7 years in this business:

1. Charting doesn't work. You can isolate an instant where a pattern worked, even a period when it worked quite well. But if you keep moving right of those charts, everything breaks down.

2. Fundamental analysis doesn't work either.

3. News gambling DOESNT WORK.

There are 5 ways to make money I know;

*Open a brokerage.
*Become a pundit.
*Find suckers to sell crap to.
*Open a bank (Market maker).
*Being lucky.

Cheers!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #364
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 1:13am Sep 26, 2019 1:13am
I would mostly agree with Rennaissance except for the last line, Lucky feels great, for a short time and then it will flee, much like his observation of tech analysis or fundamentals. Rather than blame the tools it is more likely the artist, (ever seen Trigger, Willie Nelson's guitar? How he gets that kind of sound out of that old box I don't understand or ever hope to emulate but in his hands it has made him million$.) There is no denying price does go into runs/trends at times (trend lines and MA's work) and other behaviors as well not so easy to follow. Filtering out consolidations and riding trends does return $, mostly those that lose just can't follow simple rules when times get tough. Few have the depth of pockets needed, you are playing with/against the likes of CITI, HSBC, Soros, Jones and oh yeah, Central Banks! The best you can hope for is to ride those coat tails, figuring it out is not meant to be easy, they are happy to take $ from whomever as would any player. Mining the miners seems to make a living for too many, hardly honorable and not that lucrative, certainly not as much as they promise their suckers. Too many similarities there to the Joel Osteens and Benny Hinn's promising pie in the sky while mostly just lining their pockets (Gemstones on HBO are a riot!). They all put that disclaimer slide up to begin that is meant to absolve them of everything stating clearly that past performance is no indication of future performance and then go on to describe just that. Can you blame them, all we have is the past, no time travelers as yet to clean up on sure bets! John Ehlers will take $6K if you want to listen for a weekend to a rocket engineer's approach to this game with more than high school level math skills required. Certainly better than most that just cherry pick a few examples of how BB's or whatever are magic. Most books are not worth their paper. You have to ask why no real education institution teaches "trading". Many have degrees in finance for "investing" but I am still waiting for a Harvard, Wharton or the like to come out with an accredited trading course, that right there should tell you something!
  • #365
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 1:55am Sep 26, 2019 1:55am
Quoting Rennaissance
You will start winning when you accept that you are gambling, accept the fact that you are a gambler and try to benefit from luck. There is no skill involved in trading. Keep dissecting your charts until you loose a kidney. I've seen people turn gray hair in their 30's because of charts. One friend of mine just last month suffered a heart attack , he had to my understanding lost all his money plus other people's money. I have come to one conclusion after 7 years in this business: 1. Charting doesn't work. You can isolate an instant where a pattern...
Did you ever entertain the idea that just maybe you weren't good enough? (I know that's a big ask in the participation trophy era where everyone is a special boy). We are talking about a field where most lose, so it shouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that maybe you're part of the majority who fall short of their goal. There's no shame in it. Like most things in life, it's just not possible for everyone to win.

A handful of members on this forum have been very open about their success in forex and have shown their enviable results. That doesn't matter though, because I doubt any of the salty people in this thread would be satisfied even if they were given bank statements personally signed as authentic by the CEO.
You mentioned you were also involved in sports betting, but also fell short. Well that's also something that can be beat, but from all the data I've seen, the edge someone can achieve is very small which of course leads to high variance. Here's a graph from an aussie who has been at it for almost a decade.

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You also mentioned gambling. Well it's true many forms of gambling are absolutely unbeatable in the long term unless you figure out a trick like Edward Thorpe did with card counting, but there are also gambling avenues that are naturally beatable. Poker is probably the best example of it, and here's one example from a decent grinder.

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Trading is really not that much different from these other avenues. Most will lose, a minority will profit, and an even smaller minority will profit big.
  • #366
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 3:23am Sep 26, 2019 3:23am
Quoting navycdr1
I would mostly agree with Rennaissance except for the last line, Lucky feels great, for a short time and then it will flee, much like his observation of tech analysis or fundamentals. Rather than blame the tools it is more likely the artist, (ever seen Trigger, Willie Nelson's guitar? How he gets that kind of sound out of that old box I don't understand or ever hope to emulate but in his hands it has made him million$.) There is no denying price does go into runs/trends at times (trend lines...
What I meant by being lucky is taking advantage of luck on a consistent basis. It's a call for humility when you win. You didnt win cause of your uncanny insight or system. You won cause you were lucky. In my point of view those who win in this game are as clueless as you and I are . They are just gifted with the priviledge to know that. The most important think in trading is not being on the wrong side of big moves. My call is to discourage as many of you as I can. Because I know how hard this thing is even for those that are successful.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #367
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 5:48am Sep 26, 2019 5:48am
One of the best approaches to the market is (experience) support and resistance.

Buy at support.
Sell at resistance.

K.I.S.S.

And keep in mind that "Rome wasn't built in a day".
POW!
  • #368
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 7:39am Sep 26, 2019 7:39am
I have been trading unsuccessfully for a while and for thousands of dollars. Then I bit the nullet and bought a trading course. I am still in it. There is 3 levels to complete I am still in level 1. But here is what I can tell you. There is certainly a system/process that works however it needs a couple of other things along side it to work. Things that cannot be programmed.
The 1st is hours and hours of drilling the process into yourself. This is done by trading for real following the rules, being punished by losing the trade when you break them and being rewarded by winning the trade most of the time when you follow them. You need to gain experience as fast as possible for this I used a trading simulator FxBlue. You can amplify your trading experience to exponential levels with this. 1 Sat morning trading with the sim = 1 week of real trading experience 2 ccy pairs. You need to do fundamental analysis to form a strategic bias on the ccy pair. Then you do technical analysis to determine with what tactics you will implement your strategy.

My track record is just short of 2 months (it is still a demo account as well) but before you go and view it consider the following.
The number of trades done. (The programme is designed to give me as much trading experience as possible in the shortest amount of time as such this is a scalping program/system).
I am also tasked to trade with minimum risk at the moment. It is not about the $ earned on the account but rather on the pips won. The win to loss ratio and so forth. We will worry about increasing position size once I have reached level 1 targets.
I was punished badly yesterday when I misinterpreted, instructions. I made up for it to some extent today but I am devastated on the effect it has had on my track record.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Inte...rbully/3489767

Note my patchy start in the 1st week or 2 (without this my performance would have been a bit better still). I had to learn to ride the bike by riding it and falling over not just reading about how to ride a bike.

I wish I could program the rules and all the decisions my brain is making when the tactics are deployed. I tried but was stunned by hom many steps my brain makes without me really counting them until you start coding it (coding is also not my vocation). So I gave up on that and that was before I knew al the rules of this program.

Next steps is to do this in a real account that will also be published in myfxbook. This way I can start to earn to cover the cost of level 2 and hopefully people will follow me through which I will earn as well to help pay for the coaching.

Hope this is useful to know.
MWTF Return This Week: na
  • #369
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 10:58am Sep 26, 2019 10:58am
Quoting fxprimate
One of the best approaches to the market is (experience) support and resistance. Buy at support. Sell at resistance. K.I.S.S. And keep in mind that "Rome wasn't built in a day".
May I ask you what timeframe you use for that?!
Thanks
  • #370
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 11:51am Sep 26, 2019 11:51am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} May I ask you what timeframe you use for that?! Thanks
Normally 1m, but can be used on any timeframe, depends on your style.
Today is a good example, most major pairs was in trend and even some in reversals.

POW!
  • #371
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 2:06pm Sep 26, 2019 2:06pm
Quoting fxprimate
One of the best approaches to the market is (experience) support and resistance. Buy at support. Sell at resistance. K.I.S.S. And keep in mind that "Rome wasn't built in a day".
some people made money in the markets by acting like one lol
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  • #372
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 4:28pm Sep 26, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Yes, there are patterns in any random time series. Here is a good analogy to market data: https://www.piday.org/find-birthday-...h=1&qyear=2019 The "winning" pattern you are looking for is a date. Good luck. If you had bet on position 984 for date 1/1/19 you would have won .. I am saying the analogy is similar to trading because it's all about finding patterns in random data ...
after how many pips were you averaging, lot size and equity size?
Prince M. Golds
  • #373
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 5:44pm Sep 26, 2019 5:44pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} some people made money in the markets by acting like one lol {image}
Smith is back again!

POW!
  • #374
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 8:04pm Sep 26, 2019 8:04pm
Quoting fxprimate
One of the best approaches to the market is (experience) support and resistance. Buy at support. Sell at resistance. K.I.S.S. And keep in mind that "Rome wasn't built in a day".
Great! I wonder how idiot I've been not to make such a discovery!

Ok, now show us a CURVE for at least 3 years in a row!
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #375
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 8:15pm Sep 26, 2019 8:15pm
Quoting BearBu11y
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Inte...rbully/3489767
I saw your records. win rate: 60%, reward/risk: 0.8

Without considering draw down, all I can say is those statistics are not solid enough to count on them in the long run. However, I would say it is still good enough to form the base of a more reliable approach.

I might be able to improve the RR part of your system.

Thanks for sharing...
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #376
  • Quote
  • Sep 26, 2019 8:24pm Sep 26, 2019 8:24pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Yes, there are patterns in any random time series. Here is a good analogy to market data: https://www.piday.org/find-birthday-...h=1&qyear=2019 The "winning" pattern you are looking for is a date. Good luck. If you had bet on position 984 for date 1/1/19 you would have won .. I am saying the analogy is similar to trading because it's all about finding patterns in random data ...
Yes. I remember once I told my brother if we had a super-computer producing 26 English alphabet plus 'space' in series to form one-paragraph texts, one of those paragraph would be the exact address of Donald Trump's very first girl friend.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #377
  • Quote
  • Sep 27, 2019 2:25am Sep 27, 2019 2:25am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Yes, there are patterns in any random time series. Here is a good analogy to market data: https://www.piday.org/find-birthday-...h=1&qyear=2019 The "winning" pattern you are looking for is a date. Good luck. If you had bet on position 984 for date 1/1/19 you would have won .. I am saying the analogy is similar to trading because it's all about finding patterns in random data ...
If this interests you have a look at the work of Nassim Taleb, especially his book Fooled by Randomness.
  • #379
  • Quote
  • Sep 27, 2019 3:20am Sep 27, 2019 3:20am
Quoting navycdr1
The enemy that most fall prey to in this game is noise, movements suck the trader into the wrong position and then squeeze as much $ as possible. How to reduce noise or better yet, accept it and use it to advantage? 2 tools help, moving averages, and momentum indicators (of course both are better on higher TF's that further reduce noise). Like a pilot flying on instruments, develop your tools and then trust them. Trust is gained through experience and backtesting. Lindbergh made history in part because of the way he personally helped design and...
Well that’s true. No single strategy works similar for different traders and if anyone is expecting to trade following some other trader’s plan, he’s definitely going to face a hard time later.
  • #380
  • Quote
  • Sep 27, 2019 8:45am Sep 27, 2019 8:45am
Quoting ionone
{quote} demo + private history WHY

I dont show my real accounts to nobody .. I dont need too.. also.. this system.. is very boring..and not my best one..
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