Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Han2019, get subbed to me, I will post a bunch later over weekend.

There are signs of exhaustion but not ready yet in daily.

GU note by Refinitiv.

1. EU Junker softer stance on Brexit Backstop helps GBP
2. Market short GBP, being squeezed now with this news seen as positive
3. However, UK yet to produce concrete proposals, clock ticking toward Oct. 31
4. EU summit Oct 17-18 is when UK PM Johnson hopes to strike Brexit deal
5. 1-month expiry GBP options captured summit yesterday and spiked
6. Continued demand for option vols today, 1-3 month see biggest gains
7. Markets don't like uncertainty - options love volatility - good hedge

and there you have it pretty much. No big events scheduled until mid October.
So expect this bull run to last until then.
Until then - buying dips is a sound strategy.

hourly 2450/40 for retrace.

GBP/USD: Scope For Another Leg Lower Into 1.20; Staying Cautious GBP Through Year-End - CIBC

CIBC Research discusses GBP outlook and maintains a cautious bias on the currency into the year-end. CIBC targets GBP/USD at 1.20 by year-end before rebounding to 1.28 in Q1 of 2020.

"The UK political atmosphere remains febrile ahead of the current October 31st Brexit deadline. Currently, the UK parliament is suspended until October 14th, albeit the legality of the process is due to be tested in the Supreme Court. Additionally, the government has lost is majority after 21 lawmakers were ejected from the Conservative party. Should the Parliament remain closed until October 14th, until a new Queen’s speech, Sterling’s near-term fortunes will remain determined by the market’s assumption of the probability of the government being able to agree a ‘new’ Withdrawal Agreement at the upcoming EU Council meeting on October 17/18," CIBC notes.

"But deal or no deal, the economic backdrop in the UK will continue to weigh on Sterling in the very near term. Recession risks are elevated as consumer confidence remains compromised and business investment constrained. Signs of a slowdown in the labour market are starting to materialize, as vacancies have retreated to a two-year low and hours worked, often a precursor to job losses, fell. Add to that the risks of an election that markets fear could install an extreme left government, and there are reasons to stay cautious on the GBP through year end even if the PM gets his deal with Europe," CIBC adds.

Sterling marches higher after the European Union took a softer stance on Brexit.
Those who look for technical trend-reversal signals will point to a candle pattern.
A textbook hammer candlestick (bullish) signal from Sept.

3 and 4 warned that the 1.1959 low could be a base and bear-trend low point .
The short squeeze that ensued removed major resistance levels including weekly trend resistance line, 10- and 21-WMA, a daily cloud and, last session, the 100-DMA.
There have been some modest adjustments en route to today's 1.2582 high, and the pound's 5.2% appreciation could argue for a deeper correction.
But if the Brexit headlines continue to soften hard- or no-deal concerns, sterling bulls will target the 200-DMA at 1.2737 and a weekly cloud twist out to Oct.
25 at 1.3005-13.

For retracement points, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels off the 1.4377 April high and 1.1959 September low are at 1.2883 and 1.3168 respectively.
Related content .

So how do you like my chart as a chartist in m 5 or even in H 1. DO you think my chart is clean and neat with lines just horizontal

Once again the rarefied air above 1.2500 proved too much for GBP/USD , proving the need for tangible Brexit progress.
Recent GBP/USD gains appear to be more reduction of short positions than renewed enthusiasm for going long.

Sterling's rally on Brexit deal comments by EU president Juncker stalled at 1.2582 overnight and the pound has dipped back to 1.2480, just above Friday's NY low at 1.2463 .
Juncker's comments Thursday suggested the mere possibility of making a Brexit deal if an acceptable replacement to the Irish backstop could be found -- a big "if." As of the last Friday's IMM spec data release GBP/USD spec positioning stood at -92,233 contracts just below the recent trend high -102,702 in early August.

Though there has been little credible momentum toward a Brexit agreement, parliament's removal the no-deal Brexit option and the reduced likelihood of UK elections before Oct.
31 diminish the chances of Britain crashing out of the EU alleviated bearish GBP/USD sentiment and should keep it relatively well bid, just not above 1.2500.
Despite today's weakness, with GBP/USD holding above the 10-DMA at 1.2426 and the daily cloud at 1.2399 bulls continue to exert control, but a rise above 1.2670, the 50% Fib of 1.3380-1.1959 and the 200-DMA by 1.2737, will be needed to shift momentum firmly to the bulls.

H 1 chart in view could be still for us session

There are two chances, for hourly retrace.

Asia open not breaking 2460.

Or London open... may be 2440.

nice weekend reading

Mitsubishi says Singapore-based oil trader lost $320 million in unauthorized trades

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1W510H

I agree. I got 2420//2440 as PRZ early next week.

You can get them here - https://www.efxdata.com/

Singapore offices really do love rogue trading! I wonder how long the trader had been getting away with it and how.

Okay, so my best week in trading is over with a little bad taste,
but I won't be sad.
Yesterday's $ 533 spread over the past two days has been turned into a $ 444 loss,
but overall weekly profit is $ 3700, which means I meet my goal for $ 1000 a month .
so i can even rest in the next 4 months right now, so I'm happy.
Currently still in the Long Pound trade that still i imagines they may be back up, but enough of the fantasies.
Sunday midnight I intent to to get ouy and look for a short entry although they will probably stop hunt at 1.26000, then maybe I'll leave half and if it goes up to 1.26000 then I'll return at least to break even, and if not At least I won't lose much and will be short of the first retrace

last time
current weekly hourly

im waiting for gbpusd to go up during monday opening and then get out

Note, weekly indecision candle with sellers in control....

Well, the logic is if it goes higher first then the monthly will print super bullish,

Then our views are similar, but where it is a week Monday matters