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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #494,081
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:13pm Sep 20, 2019 2:13pm
there's a cross right there
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #494,082
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:17pm Sep 20, 2019 2:17pm
to maintain a longer-term bearish outlook next week must be bearish
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #494,083
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:25pm Sep 20, 2019 2:25pm
Quoting Bones
to maintain a longer-term bearish outlook next week must be bearish
I still think long term is bullish, but short term is bearish...soon the brexit drama will be over and pound can start going up steadily. Deal or no-deal, long term, UK economy will become stronger. They don't need to be in the EU to make business with the EU, thats just scare tactics from Brusel, but they know nothing will change businesswise, even with no-deal.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #494,084
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:26pm Sep 20, 2019 2:26pm
I can only suggest that 5 min of research won't beat long term experience if candles aren't your thing...

Quoting asgcorp
I'm not a big expert of Jap stick combos, but what we got on weekly, it ain't a Harami Cross. What is a Harami Cross? A harami cross is a Japanese candlestick pattern that consists of a large candlestick that moves in the direction of the trend, followed by a small dojicandlestick. The doji is completely contained within the prior candlestick’s body. The harami cross pattern suggests that the previous trend may be about to...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #494,085
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:33pm Sep 20, 2019 2:33pm
I would agree there's a limit to the downside since GBP is undervalued right now, let us see that monthly
yearly is bearish right now if you want to talk long term, quite possibly quarterly which coincides with Oct

Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I still think long term is bullish, but short term is bearish...soon the brexit drama will be over and pound can start going up steadily. Deal or no-deal, long term, UK economy will become stronger. They don't need to be in the EU to make business with the EU, thats just scare tactics from Brusel, but they know nothing will change businesswise, even with no-deal.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #494,086
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:56pm Sep 20, 2019 2:56pm
look higher long term view
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I still think long term is bullish, but short term is bearish...soon the brexit drama will be over and pound can start going up steadily. Deal or no-deal, long term, UK economy will become stronger. They don't need to be in the EU to make business with the EU, thats just scare tactics from Brusel, but they know nothing will change businesswise, even with no-deal.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #494,087
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:59pm Sep 20, 2019 4:59pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} b_hand, please help me...because on this chart (15M GU) I struggle to find W:3 the bottom of a first decline (which has to be lower than W:1) W:4 is the top of W:3 and W:4 should be higher than W:1 bottom... Can you share with us your chart, please? {image}
hi ... you are talking about wolf waves advanced, it is very difficult but easy if we use the common ones which traders always use.
Inserted Video
  • #494,088
  • Sep 20, 2019 10:45pm Sep 20, 2019 10:45pm
More up puppy dogs...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #494,089
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:02pm Sep 20, 2019 11:02pm
Quoting Bones
to maintain a longer-term bearish outlook next week must be bearish
not really. Weekly candle will close green. GU will back test some levels below to pick buyers next week. Expecting THU/FRI pump again.

I've already posted multiple times that we are running on borrowed range (1975-2550 - 550 points vs 500 8 mnt rolling range).
So naturally market will pullback to provide some cool down and pick up new buyers from below.

Having said that I do expect 2550 interim top to hold early next week, it will get a re-test as well.

Have a nice weekend!
  • #494,090
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:04pm Sep 20, 2019 11:04pm
Quoting b_hand
{quote} hi ... you are talking about wolf waves advanced, it is very difficult but easy if we use the common ones which traders always use. https://youtu.be/vjnXdZNpngI
There are no Wolfe wave setups in GU on any TF now. Feel free to post a chart with mark down though.
I'm pretty sharp on WW setups.
  • #494,091
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:16pm Sep 20, 2019 11:16pm
Quoting Bones
to maintain a longer-term bearish outlook next week must be bearish
If it must go up, why do you say it should firt go down?
  • #494,092
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:17pm Sep 20, 2019 11:17pm
Read a lot of notes on GBPUSD from investment banks (Barclays, MUFG, Citi, Refinitiv), everyone is generally bearish, which is a load of bollocks,
feels like they want to use their clients as liquidity providers into mid October.
  • #494,093
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:20pm Sep 20, 2019 11:20pm
on HTF the setup we got now feels like rinse and repeat of the 2016 before a significant mark down (2000+ points down leg).
Therefore likely target for bulls lies in range of 2800-3000 now.
Buying any dips is a great idea for position traders.
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  • #494,094
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:21pm Sep 20, 2019 11:21pm
Quoting FeliciaM
{quote} If it must go up, why do you say it should firt go down?
must go down / must go up. This is too general. Unless targets are specified, not much use anyway.
  • #494,095
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:24pm Sep 20, 2019 11:24pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} must go down / must go up. This is too general. Unless targets are specified, not much use anyway.
Im trying to understand your statement
This week price made new highs and has been going higher. So even though there may be pullbacks what is your logic in saying for furtger continuatiin we need a bearish week.

Thanks
  • #494,096
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:33pm Sep 20, 2019 11:33pm
Quoting FeliciaM
{quote} Im trying to understand your statement This week price made new highs and has been going higher. So even though there may be pullbacks what is your logic in saying for furtger continuatiin we need a bearish week. Thanks
you are talking to the wrong guy. lol.
  • #494,097
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:35pm Sep 20, 2019 11:35pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} you are talking to the wrong guy. lol.
Lol pardon me... Im still getying used to sites.... Havr been followong but not posting much..... But do you indetstand my question to him?
  • #494,098
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:42pm Sep 20, 2019 11:42pm
Quoting FeliciaM
{quote} Lol pardon me... Im still getying used to sites.... Havr been followong but not posting much..... But do you indetstand my question to him?
Yeah, sure. Bones got a good point though. Weekly candle combo is signaling a pullback next week.
I agree with that, yes, cause monthly range (500 points) is already out, naturally we need to cool down a bit
and also pick new buyers from below.

Nothing moves in a straight line, especially in FX.

What I don't agree is that next weekly candle got to close in bear mode.
I see a green candle next week. (reason posted previously - THU/FRI pump).
  • #494,099
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:45pm Sep 20, 2019 11:45pm
Quoting FeliciaM
{quote} Im trying to understand your statement This week price made new highs and has been going higher. So even though there may be pullbacks what is your logic in saying for furtger continuatiin we need a bearish week. Thanks
There is a lack of Sellers so Liquidity pools are drying up above. The market always seeks a high density of orders and guess where they lie.
There are thousands of Buyers with their Stops below recent lows so the market will hunt these Buyer stops very soon. The market won't ignore this density of orders much longer.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #494,100
  • Sep 20, 2019 11:57pm Sep 20, 2019 11:57pm
Quoting asgcorp
Read a lot of notes on GBPUSD from investment banks (Barclays, MUFG, Citi, Refinitiv), everyone is generally bearish, which is a load of bollocks, feels like they want to use their clients as liquidity providers into mid October.
Hi asgcorp, just wondering where one can get these reports from?

Quite a few reports came out saying that the UK "non papers" are pretty much worthless, so a breakthrough in negotiation is not looking likely at this stage. The down push on Friday was quite strong and after a 600 pips drive up since 3rd Sept, it makes sense that a good retracement downward is in order before a further up move beyond 1.2600. I think the fundamentals is agreeing with technical on a downward retracement.

I am expecting price will move back up to the 1.2500 level on Monday one more time before a further drop, possibly to the 1.228 level. I think as we approach mid Oct, we will all have a better idea where Brexit will lead the GU.
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