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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #241
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:34am Sep 13, 2019 2:34am
Quoting TyLamai
EITHER way, below's how I would look to re-enter - IF - the Buy basket continues. No Hurry. {image} {image}
17 hours ago I wrote this...

But who knows (shrug), maybe Basketting is just a fluke.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #242
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:37am Sep 13, 2019 2:37am
I think market is totally controlled by MM and basket is all about correlation of pair going in same direction or controlling the market.

The bitter truth is that it is a big risk to take so many pairs in one direction.

There is No Co relation in the markets.. there is Fractional Disparity
What's that?

It's when they hold the Major pair like Gu and they move the Crosses wen nobody is looking or Hold all the Crosses then Move the Majors quietly to frustrate every trader that is stuck

Co relation is the biggest myth that is why many traders tried this strategy.
  • #243
  • Sep 13, 2019 4:33am Sep 13, 2019 4:33am
The numbers don't lie.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Images
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #244
  • Sep 13, 2019 5:58am Sep 13, 2019 5:58am
+682 pips and counting...the H4 Buy basket is still valid.

NZD is having a HARD time being bullish. This is because EUR and GBP are weighing it down. Therefore I have banked:

-52 pips from 2 of my NZDUSD positions and +43 pips from 1 GBPUSD position.

That brings the total pips banked today to +21 pips net.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #245
  • Sep 13, 2019 6:48am Sep 13, 2019 6:48am
Quoting TyLamai
+682 pips and counting...the H4 Buy basket is still valid. NZD is having a HARD time being bullish. This is because EUR and GBP are weighing it down. Therefore I have banked: -52 pips from 2 of my NZDUSD positions and +43 pips from 1 GBPUSD position. That brings the total pips banked today to +21 pips net. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image}
H4 Trade is like a Jackpot..... Been riding this long trade from the start

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #246
  • Sep 13, 2019 6:49am Sep 13, 2019 6:49am
Is it possible to change the pairs in the basket?
TIA
  • #247
  • Sep 13, 2019 7:03am Sep 13, 2019 7:03am
Heads up. USD Reds in 27mins.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #248
  • Sep 13, 2019 10:44am Sep 13, 2019 10:44am
+994 TOTAL pips Banked and +604 pips floating...the H4 Buy basket is still valid.

I just banked +87 pips from CHFJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP and USDCHF and will most likely leave the remaining positions open over the weekend (with SLs in place of course).

As far as I can tell and calculate, I have NO drawdowns at the moment. This is simply because I tinker A LOT with my basket (as I have shown numerously on this thread)...and the MAIN reason for that is to TRY to minimize DD.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Images
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #249
  • Sep 13, 2019 1:01pm Sep 13, 2019 1:01pm
Quoting TyLamai
+994 TOTAL pips Banked and +604 pips floating...the H4 Buy basket is still valid. I just banked +87 pips from CHFJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP and USDCHF and will most likely leave the remaining positions open over the weekend (with SLs in place of course). As far as I can tell and calculate, I have NO drawdowns at the moment. This is simply because I tinker A LOT with my basket (as I have shown numerously on this thread)...and the MAIN reason for that is to TRY to minimize DD. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty {image} {image}

Good stuff Ty. When I get some free time I have to look at adding pairs as you do. Ending the week with +611 of B10.

Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #250
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:21pm Sep 13, 2019 2:21pm
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} Good stuff Ty. When I get some free time I have to look at adding pairs as you do. Ending the week with +611 of B10. Dave
Yes Dave,

I use a combination of what I like to term Selective and Dynamic Basketting which has taken me a few years to develop.

Congrats on the pip-haul man!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #251
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:40pm Sep 13, 2019 2:40pm
+1,245 TOTAL pips Banked and +480 pips floating...the H4 Buy basket is still valid.

I just added 2 USDCHF sells because I see a good DC.

NZDUSD and NZDJPY are also other pairs with good DCs (as long as the Buy basket signal remains intact). Once I see good PA on these, I will open Buy trades.

I plan on leaving the remaining positions running over the weekend (with SLs in place).

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Images
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #252
  • Sep 14, 2019 1:04am Sep 14, 2019 1:04am
RE: Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

If I may quote @Strat (one of my most respected traders). As you prep for next week's trading...

'As I have posted many times, IGNORE ALL TALKING HEADS AND ""SO CALLED"" WALL STREET GURUS. They are paid to talk their heads off and know as much about the real world of ACTUAL trading as the pimple on my backside!'

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #253
  • Sep 14, 2019 2:19am Sep 14, 2019 2:19am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.

Here's my thinking: Basket trading is a TECHNICAL trading system - let's assume it's maybe 60% effective. Understanding that fundamentals also factor into the movement of Price, raises that effectiveness even higher - let's assume up to 70%. Now, understanding that Price movement CAN be manipulated (although for the life of me I don't see WHY any one would bother) and arranging your trades to take advantage of said probability of that manipulation happening during the lifespan of your Basket, raises the effectiveness of Basket trading to the maximum level - let's assume up to 80%.

I believe someone reads these things I post. I keep posting because of that someone.

"Next week is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and despite widespread expectations for the Fed's second rate cut this year USD/JPY is trading strongly ahead of the rate decision. The pair ended the week up for the 7th out of 8 trading days. The latest economic reports beat expectations with retail sales rising 0.4% in the month of August, which was double expectations. Consumer sentiment also improved with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 92 from 90.8.

According to Fed fund futures, the market completely discounted a quarter point rate cut and sees a 70% chance of a second move before the end of the year. Interestingly enough, these odds shifted lower over the past week because prior to that the market was pricing in 100% of two rate cuts before the end of the year. Part of this has to do with stronger inflation and consumer spending numbers but some economists feel that by easing aggressively, the European Central Bank reduces the pressure on the Fed to do the same, especially if they effectively avoid a deep prolonged recession. Whether that's true remains to be seen but in the immediate future, how the dollar trades for the days and weeks ahead will be determined by the tone of Fed Chairman Powell's press conference.

US dollar bears could be setting up for disappointment because everything we heard from Federal Reserve officials suggests that they are reluctant to ease. Earlier this month, rate cut expectations soared when Fed Chairman Powell said there are significant risks to the economic outlook and they would act appropriately to sustain expansion. However in that speech he also described the economic outlook as favorable, said the economy continues to perform well and the labor market is strong. A quarter point cut will be coming because the Fed is "conducting policy in a way to address risks," according to Powell but he could repeat the mantra that the economy is in a "good place." Over the past few weeks, we've highlighted the long list of US policymakers whocasted doubt on the need for easing and if the Fed remains optimistic, the dollar will rise. This includes FOMC voter Rosengren who said "no immediate Fed action is needed if data stays on track." FOMC voter Williams also feels that the baseline for the economy is continuing strong growth and he won't pre-judge the outcome of the September meeting. Since July, consumer spending slowed but inflation is steady and service sector activity accelerated.

Come Wednesday, if the FOMC statement or Powell's press conference oozes of optimism, the US dollar will rally even if the Fed lowers interest rates. If the decision to cut isn't unanimous and 2 or more members vote to keep rates steady, we could see USD/JPY make a run for 110."
- Kathy Lien

Now ask yourself: HOW can this affect my Basket? THEN, position yourself to take advantage.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #254
  • Sep 14, 2019 6:55am Sep 14, 2019 6:55am
Below's how the week ended and what my expectation is for next week.

The H4 Buy basket is still valid and the expectation is based on the assumption that it would remain so. If that does not materialize, then I will adapt accordingly.

I would like to see a Discount-Continuation as usual on H1 and maybe m15 (at the least). *Images attached below.

In the above image HERE, you will see the Selective Basket pairs which I still have open. I intend to add to these as the opportunity arises.

In particular, I would like to take advantage of the DEEP DC on the NZDJPY and it's close twin, the NZDUSD. Bearing in mind that we have a USD Red (FOMC) scheduled for the mid-week. What I like about NJ and NU is that it will be CHEAP. If I do get in a Buy and Price doesn't go my way, then the cost will be very negligible compared to...say a Buy on ANY of the GBP crosses at the moment (i.e. EGflipped, GF, GJ, GJ).

Looking forward to another great trading week ahead.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #255
  • Sep 14, 2019 7:00am Sep 14, 2019 7:00am
Quoting TyLamai
Fundies: Truths and Rumours. Here's my thinking: Basket trading is a TECHNICAL trading system - let's assume it's maybe 60% effective. Understanding that fundamentals also factor into the movement of Price, raises that effectiveness even higher - let's assume up to 70%. Now, understanding that Price movement CAN be manipulated (although for the life of me I don't see WHY any one would bother) and arranging your trades to take advantage of said probability of that manipulation happening during the lifespan of your Basket, raises the effectiveness...

I for one like these types of post. This is another avenue I need to look into with trying to geta better price on the basket pairs. This is taking it to another level of basket trading for me. Keep up the post Ty.


Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #256
  • Sep 14, 2019 7:41am Sep 14, 2019 7:41am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} This is a great question kasrafx, one I've been waiting to be asked. Here's how to "solve" this issue. #1. Go to the Blank GBPJPY H1 chart where ALL the Basket creating indicators are. #2. Right-click on the chart and select "Indicators List" to access the indicators present on the Blank GBPJPY chart. #3. To access the Input parameters of theBasket creating indicator(s), simply double-click on EACH one and select Ok - this is enough to reset the indicator and make the "missing" bars show. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty

Thanks a lot
  • #257
  • Sep 14, 2019 8:56am Sep 14, 2019 8:56am
View from the cockpit....

I am loving the long run. Massive pip haul and counting...

I have now adjusted my H1 setup for long term view.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Enjoy the weekend.
  • #258
  • Sep 14, 2019 11:09am Sep 14, 2019 11:09am
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} I for one like these types of post. This is another avenue I need to look into with trying to geta better price on the basket pairs. This is taking it to another level of basket trading for me. Keep up the post Ty. Dave
Thanks Dave.

For me Basketting brings a CLARITY I could never attain trading with single pairs.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #259
  • Sep 14, 2019 11:11am Sep 14, 2019 11:11am
Quoting bishopdotun
View from the cockpit.... I am loving the long run. Massive pip haul and counting... I have now adjusted my H1 setup for long term view. {image} {image} Enjoy the weekend.
If this Buy basket continues I'm hoping to get a discount so I can continue with you on that long run!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #260
  • Sep 14, 2019 7:27pm Sep 14, 2019 7:27pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} If this Buy basket continues I'm hoping to get a discount so I can continue with you on that long run! Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Nice to be on board and love what i am reading,

Many thanks
Don
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