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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #488,941
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:26am Aug 9, 2019 9:26am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} Dear I would like a retracement too ... other pound pairs made another low today as well.
Yes, I tried Gcad short in my demo account. Wanted to test a method.

Result is impressive. Trades were taken on 7 th august.
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Intraday only.
  • #488,942
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:27am Aug 9, 2019 9:27am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Indeed I always keep saying it price action is key, I’ll draw a chart up abit later of all the price action of the drop I did draw one up in a few previous post but it was a while back. Triangles should be expected to break in the direction of the trend now it dosent happen all the time of course but more often than not, when we got into this triangle I was expecting it to break low with targets of the 1.20 quarter point
It is what it is
Absolutelly true
  • #488,943
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:27am Aug 9, 2019 9:27am
Quoting Marcieny
{quote} You're so nice and humble. and a great trader.
I am humble but not so nice.

Intraday only.
  • #488,944
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:29am Aug 9, 2019 9:29am
Quoting navk
{quote} I am humble but not so nice.
But I think you're cool
  • #488,945
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:50am Aug 9, 2019 9:50am
Quoting Theoak
{quote} I think the bear run is over out -9 X 3
short in at 1.2070
Don't trade what you think. Just what you see!!!
  • #488,946
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:55am Aug 9, 2019 9:55am
Quoting Wavegarrick
Hi Guys, Had to help myself to the gravy train this week. It has been screaming short all week. My trades locked in and will let it run its course. {image} Having said, we are close to multi year lows of 2016/2017. My chart from a weekly perspective. I will look for reversal signals from my yearly support 1 at 1.20190. Of course trading off these levels will not come easy and lots of manipulation and stop hunts. Trade safe, cheers. {image}
Which puts my mind into a chain of thought:
Eurgbp nearing my Yearly res 2 at 0.93782. It is clear that Gu has decoupled from Eu a long time ago and the pound has gone through a period of weakness and the euro has stood its ground meagerly so. Will we we see a period of Euro weakness in due course?. I am not talking about dollar weakness, which is a different subject on its own. I know Trump would like a weak dollar. If we see euro weakness we could very well see a drop in due course which could extend to my yearly support 1 at 1.09219 or even 1.06604.

EurGbp could drop off its yearly highs and we could see a sustained period of Pound strength. All these things can happen in due course.

Anyway never mind me, just thinking out loud.
Have a great weekend.
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #488,947
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:01am Aug 9, 2019 10:01am
Quoting mbrown
Crap! I missed the hour. Limit at 2092. {image}
Still waiting to get in at dynamic resistance @ 2086.
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  • #488,948
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:09am Aug 9, 2019 10:09am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Which puts my mind into a chain of thought: Eurgbp nearing my Yearly res 2 at 0.93782. It is clear that Gu has decoupled from Eu a long time ago and the pound has gone through a period of weakness and the euro has stood its ground meagerly so. Will we we see a period of Euro weakness in due course?. I am not talking about dollar weakness, which is a different subject on its own. I know Trump would like a weak dollar. If we see euro weakness we could very well see a drop in due course which could extend to my yearly support 1 at 1.09219 or...
if you noticed , nowadays it's a race to the bottom about who's got the lowest rates and the weakest currency

but Trump' s policies will do more harm than good , because even though he's selling to his electoral base the message that he wants to bring back industries to the US , his protectionism is flawed at the root
  • #488,949
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:12am Aug 9, 2019 10:12am
GBPUSD - Daily
-----------------

The price is touching an point of support, but not is good try to buy yet, because the movement still is too much bearish.


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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #488,950
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:13am Aug 9, 2019 10:13am
Quoting MXT
{quote} if you noticed , nowadays it's a race to the bottom about who's got the lowest rates and the weakest currency but Trump' s policies will do more harm than good , because even though he's selling to his electoral base the message that he wants to bring back industries to the US , his protectionism is flawed at the root

I don't get it.

I always thought tariffs weaken a currency due to reducing the international demand for money and increased domestic demand in the tariff-related areas. The increased domestic money demand doesn't offset the reduced international money demand due to the loss of the benefits of the law of one price or more specifically international comparative advantage. Thereby creating an inflationary pressure thus creating a double whammy of currency weakness.
  • #488,951
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:22am Aug 9, 2019 10:22am
GBPUSD - H1
---------------

If the next week, the price cross the resistence H1, we have a good point for to buy.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #488,952
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:23am Aug 9, 2019 10:23am
Quoting sgmf
big picture the same but it can't drop forever, so go UP for a while
need clear break 2090 to add more
  • #488,953
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:23am Aug 9, 2019 10:23am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I don't get it. I always thought tariffs weaken a currency due to reducing the international demand for money and increased domestic demand in the tariff-related areas.
Trump's declared aim by wanting a weak dollar and imposing Tariffs is to weaken Chinese imports , strengthen US exports and bring back industries to the US

but he won't be able to bring back industries to the US and the only end result will be a global recession and a decrease in global trade

this is my personal opinion , and we'll see in some years the effects of his policies

let's keep this discussion short and end it here because it would take too long to discuss
  • #488,954
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:27am Aug 9, 2019 10:27am
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yes yes yes
  • #488,955
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:47am Aug 9, 2019 10:47am
USD Index - H1
------------------

Waiting to confirm the breakout.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #488,956
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:56am Aug 9, 2019 10:56am
Quoting MXT
{quote} Trump's declared aim by wanting a weak dollar and imposing Tariffs is to weaken Chinese imports , strengthen US exports and bring back industries to the US but he won't be able to bring back industries to the US and the only end result will be a global recession and a decrease in global trade this is my personal opinion , and we'll see in some years the effects of his policies let's keep this discussion short and end it here because it would take too long to discuss

There is an academic subject called Economics and International trade with empirically proven studies of the outcome of such tariffs, I'm not saying these studies are 100% correct but they do at least use the tools of the field to arrive at the conclusions:

Trump has imposed tariffs against:
China;
Canada;
Europe;
Indian;
Mexican;
and a long list of other countries.

He won't be able to bring back Industries to the USA? Industries exist to maximize shareholder wealth, if their manufacturing inputs are driven higher a large percentage of companies will relocate at the drop of the hat, we see this happen every month if you're an FT or WSJ reader.

However, I respect your opinion.
  • #488,957
  • Aug 9, 2019 11:08am Aug 9, 2019 11:08am
Quoting palpite
USD Index - H1 ------------------ Waiting to confirm the breakout. {image}
no break imo
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yes yes yes
  • #488,958
  • Aug 9, 2019 11:11am Aug 9, 2019 11:11am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} There is an academic subject called Economics and International trade with empirically proven studies of the outcome of such tariffs, I'm not saying these studies are 100% correct but they do at least use the tools of the field to arrive at the conclusions: Trump has imposed tariffs against: China; Canada; Europe; Indian; Mexican; and a long list of other countries. He won't be able to bring back Industries to the USA? Industries exist to maximize shareholder wealth, if their manufacturing inputs are driven higher a large percentage of companies...
i like your post and respect your opinion too , but as you see this subject is quite complex and too long to discuss

being complex as it is , it has been and will always be a lucrative playing field of every politician

let' s discuss this privately maybe

Take care
  • #488,959
  • Aug 9, 2019 11:13am Aug 9, 2019 11:13am
Quoting MXT
{quote} i like your post and respect your opinion too , but as you see this subject is quite complex and too long to discuss being complex as it is , it has been and will always be a lucrative playing field of every politician let' s discuss this maybe privately Take care

I've already ended it mate.

===============================================

I finally have my GBPUSD short; it is a little late in the day but a few pips are better than nothing.
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  • #488,960
  • Aug 9, 2019 11:20am Aug 9, 2019 11:20am
Quoting Moty
{quote} no break imo {image} {image}
The price is dropping and touching the support. We can't predict if it will cross or not. Because of this i said for wait to confirm.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
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