EURUSD

Listening to bloomberg, they said even the good retail sales data will not stop the fed from lowering rates mainly because of GLOBAL growth.

boring market today, little volatility

but I think that EUR/USD could go up from current levels after Powell

When he opens his mouth everything is volatility.

Don't listen to bloomberg,and read just price action.1.13 resistance 1.12 support for now.

reaffirming

why you ignore fomc today . You prefer powell only ?

Powell has no balls to move EURUSD

Powell can't move bowel? I don't know why they are trying to burn cash for this... oh yeah, at least if watching for short-term only.. horizon with-in the (election) term and there we have it.... And than they wonder why CN have (still) massive surge... they are looking LONG-term (decades, centuries).. not just kicking can down the road or till the next term That is assuming the economists know (or are allowed to) know/say where this shor-term aka CRACK solutions lead to in the longrun... They still didn't get it after burning trillions in the last 10years... in hopes to return to the golden 90s era... Not the same parameters anymore... Demographics, structure, internet, everything...

Ok anyway... Today I decided to go back to PURE BASICS... of the CORE of my prediction model of 10 years.. I get trapped in some HYPE once in a while..
like this OrderBook feature that my broker recently added (didn't notice it in the desktop app but it is there in the LIVE mobile app, the f...)... or even VOLUMe (outisde of SPREAD data that includes it) or some fancy website... suggesting STRONG BUY/SELL.... SOMETHING.. that can be switched (in a nanosecond) to STRONG BUY/SELL (the opposite direction)... like THE F.. And yes, I am well aware how HF programs are (ab)using this ORDERBOOK... BTW.. GOD i Love this FREEMARKET THREAD without the fear of someone deleting/censoring

Ok, back to my PRIMARY formula of this price prediction model... You would not believe what it is inside its essence (supposedly - still unverified because it is ridicules but again... not really, somewhat logical, deriving from the result to origin)... Yet some correlations seem to be str8 forward if you threat them as such... WHY there is certain correlation... is BEYOND the mind of one small brain (of mine) If we are truly honest here... We have figured out many things, as humanity... how they work, how to use it... but have no clue whatsoever about the WHY part... do not let me get any further.. with the WHY (are we here) or something, because everything crashes once you go there (wanna be happy? Skip the "WHY" in your life... OUTSIDE the belief that is... crash/meltdown of reason...

Ok what Im trying to say is that Im switching (back) to NAKED/NUDE trading.... having only my price prediction model on the chart and thats it...
No more bullshit news, waiting for some sucker to SAY something, some indicator, overall or whatever.. I stay FIRMLY beyond what I have been posting so many times here that I might get reminded not to spam... BUt here it is again, for the last time, till at least 10th of OCT19... SLOW EURUSD decline by the day...
for the next 3months approx.. lamost linear (please)... Would prefer if it deflated SLOWER today.. but hey.... do not like those disturbances...
also.. if you check ALL of my posts, compared it to ACTUAL chart.... (I wonder if anyone actually do this... it seems some gurus here have followers for no apparent reason, even if they don't know what they are doing and their signals are... *yes*".. this thing)... Ok.. If you would compared.. there is ONE.. from my head... that is still making some rather strong gravitational pull and that is 1.1155... I hope its force will be SLOW or that counterforce.. or just... in another words... hope we will get there SLOWLY so I/we can SHAVE the F-CAR or F-U position out of it.... Because I hope everyone here agrees... nothing better (almost, yes!) than to SHAVE the profits from the LINEAR KEBAB... that boucnes A BIT up and down.... SHAVE.. bounce, SHAVe again.... tuning, leveraging up... certain trades away... r2r... zero to hero, bump to billy..
u got the picture...



had to VENT this out, tnx

PS.. I have wasted so many PIPS/profits.. doubting my model... due to "extraordinary" events/indicators... ENOUGH! Lets roll... BILLIONS OR BUST or so to say
Yeah this SAMPLE TE is just that... Hope to post some serious TEs 900%+ soon or much lower, like 25% but with 10% DD tops... stable, longterm and all.. but yeah, the basic model the same, just the harvest/strategy changes... risk management etc... c u

Haha long story but i liked it...In fact me too trading Naked. Nothing on my chart except Candlesticks. This makes me see price movement clearly.

aye. here's the deal fellas. 2 options. You can play a tough guy from Turkey and go all-in long EURUSD now. And blow up very soon in a spectacular fashion.
Here's the 2nd option though. Do your homework. DXY. H4. Back in 2018 and right now.
If you want to make money in this market next 2-4 weeks, short sell any rips, upside is capped by 1250.

Now you can bookmark this post and let's review it later in August.
Good luck, traders!

PS: Same applies to GBPUSD. A bunch of fellas went broke already trying to catch the falling knife. GU targets next 2-4 weeks - 2250 and 2000.

Since you ran away from the other EUR/USD thread:

"If this chart is from September 2018, the sentiment was still 50/50 that the Fed would hike rates at their next meeting. If you compare those fundamentals to today, the sentiment is 100% flipped. The Fed is on the fence to cut rates.

What are you even trying to say?" Thanks

I didn't run away, the bald man blocked me.

I don't trade based on fundies, I do track them, but you are using 100% fed cut rate odds the wrong way.
EURUSD is pricing in risks of no cut / lower than 50bps cut right now, so we may get a re-test of the
range lows near 1.1120-30 and even a break down of the base lows is possible, then we might hit 1.1040-60 before FED.

That's what I'm saying. hope this helps. good luck.

As he should.

finally, you underestimate the mayhem that could be triggered by the GBPUSD collapse, and it's in progress right now.
Dummies went long against the fake low on daily, while technically it already broke on July 2nd...

Now the GU collapse can drag down EURUSD along with it.

there ain't much I can learn from a bald demo trader from Turkey. No harm done.

Great point. Could it be that because the market is so sure the 25 bps cut is happening (as we all are by now) and its a case of whether or not the we get 50 which will drive the market? The upbeat news today suggests 25 will be it but there's still some GDP data and PCE data before the end of July.

The idea of going long EURUSD is a scary thought. After 1.5 years of USD bullishness (Hiking FED) it is hard to not work that way. With EUR being so piss weak in general as well, I see only really see a correction up to 1.1400. Although, we're technically working with a dovish FED now..

An interesting time from now to the end of year never the less.

Cheers.

They have been pricing in a possibility of 50bp, but the recent data prints have curbed the market to expect 25bp instead, hence the dollar rally. If 0bp was really on the table, I'd agree that EURUSD will cut right through the 1.1200 level with no slowing until 1.1100. I don't see this as the case. Good luck