EURUSD

RIP those still short... I tried to warn you guys based on fundamentals...
Fundamentals and leading indicators show a contraction in US economy meaning the FED will look to cut rates. Institutional investors have been positioning themselves long EUR for a month already to reflect this expectation, and the FED are being more open to cuts because of dovish outlook.

May want to keep an eye on July data however, and see if there will be a correction when the actual rate cut/no cut happens month end.

All leads to a EURUSD buy, unless Europe takes another shit (which they will, but hopefully not in the next couple of months).

leaked lol? it is on the FED website

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...l20190710a.htm

Based on this release I would expect 1.13 test before we see 1.12 again

perfect , next level to react 1260/83.

update usdx : good signal level 96.76 broken & so the present leg up can be over for now , limit down for up goes to 96.44 . and to bounce for 97 ++ then to do above that limit. watching price towards limit play

It was meant for 10jul19-10oct19 as locked downtrend .. on 10th of oct... new deep.analysis will be formed/calculated...

EDIT:
If you meant WHY it is locked? Because my price prediction model of 10years calculated that outcome
Could it be wrong? According to the last (model) data/outcomes of 10years.. it can only be delayed (it seems).... due to extraordinary events/interventions...
Usually when there is artificial correction.. the harder it hits later... due to buildup of counter...

So see you on 10OCT19 or later, in this thread at least Would be happily admit I (model) was wrong, have no problem with that.
But the key is to make the timestamp BEFORE it happens Also, trend is only part of the picture, specially if one dailytrades... or even scalps...

So here you have it.. the MODEL (some correlations are somewhat mystery to me and many that have reviewed it, but it seems to be something there...) is the answer for me... but PIGS whining; Italy atm (although not heard due to this FED/ECB focus at the moment, Trump behind the wheel, summer (lazy) time, no big drama.. etc etc... doesn't help either The new larger trend will be (re)calculated on 10th of OCT19... if all goes well...
Unless it is a complete disaster.. even with possible mitigating circumstances (FED) I believe whatever FED does, ECB might follow... In fact, in a larger picture...
it doesn't matter that much than people think, at least not in the next 3month timeframe... Should they distort it too much, the delta (deviation, change...) will be much harder AFTER... Much might happen... But (almost) all of the outcomes/permutations come to the same conclusion.. EURUSD downtrend for (at least) the next 3 months... at which point huge/recalculation/back-analysis will have to be performed... but for now, it is LOCKED.

P.S. I do not like the BEAR(s) (Stephan mode of the market.. because it just rebounces too hard... can go that for a week or so/two but than 1 week of painful retracement for example... I much prefer for it to DEFLATE slowly... slow downtrend... Bulls helping the bears not to go over the edge/board too quickly and trigger some LIONS and TIGERS along with the SHEEPS, SQUAWKs, WOLFs, VULTURES.. LIONS, DOGS, COWS... etc etc.. My wish is that for this summer and a little into the FALL... The Bears will have it slowly... with bulls watching for bears not to overEAT before the winter

Meanwhile you we can talk in the areas where trend doesn't matter (that) much, for example in the thread about (group trading) the TP20, SL20... that I recently opened...
I am not sure I will post anything in my thread about forecasts... specially if trend forecast would appear to be s...
Not sure how much will I post or trade on this published TE... of mine...
We can talk about gold on MM.... because if you haven't made the connection, I love GOLD (AUric

So there you have it.. I stand by it Hope I/we will harvest SF90 out of it also... trend being right or not... but it would help much, specially the smooth one, without much swing/retracement drama But as you all know, there are many components (TREND, TRADE/RISK management, DISCIPLINE, knowing when not to trade... being leading + watching for interventions/high-impact events etc...) for the successful overall profit... right TREND does help however but at the same time gives almost zero "guarantee" for a success of a (specially high-leveraged) daily/short-term trades

It means that Fibre has started to retrace from 70.7 % of 1.14113 to 1.11050

Two Things

so bull in good shape , more extension likely towards 1283 + before a correction. usdx supports this action & more . lets see

Closed 4 now.

Is it the time 2 retrace ?

Pending Orders 4 Long Can be activated again.

I agree with you as long as these two trendlines keep holding it down.

5 minutes to decide if we cross 1267 or not

Wow! Get target overnight!usdx test 96.44 just need breaks to be happy to correct.waiting for the breaks and some more.

Successfully trapped some buyers, what's next?

Good boy

waiting breaks down for one more leg down usdx & so other bull continue , may not great !. eu 1258/54 correction may be enough for 1288+ movement. lets see

wait for data and events today and the next move will come

Short Term Update
=============

Good day, traders!

Here's my take on EURUSD for today. Details with SL/TP and charts posted in my thread.

EUR USD update before data today.

Strong supp 1230-1250 - best area to buy any dips.
Strong res 1300-1320 - best area to short rips and hold into supp above. (+50-70 points on that short).

EURUSD mid-term floor is at 1230-1250, I don't see EURUSD trading below this next 4-8 weeks.
If you can just buy and hold, this is the best trade to take - accumulate longs and hold until 1400-1450.
But this trade will take time to pan out.

It's crazy to go anything other than short DXY (i.e. long EURUSD). Yesterday was confirmation of BOTH economic indicators AND institutional spec positions.

If Draghi takes a shit on me today, I'll cash out the EURUSD and either buy Yen or Gold against the dollar and not touch this pair until there is a clearer direction. No volatility, no fun.

Good analysis. Truth long term gives good money too ..