USD/CHF

Maybe this will give us a clue.....

XTsunami,

What time frame are you showing in each of the charts?

Looks like Elliott Wave predictions. What charting pkg are you using?

LOU

The charts are one hour and the package is Tahoe Charts

Maybe one more line will help.

its a little early to be calling a head an shoulders pattern here xtsunami. if this one comes true your my new hero.

xtsunami
Nice looking chart. I offer humble opinion. Pull back the time frame using hourly data and draw the same chart on a larger scale. Assistance can be drawn from looking overall at the daily chart of a possible (I think very possible) head and shoulders that is developing. I feel the chart you have shown is purely a mini-me of the larger picture starting from 1.3226 on Apr 25/04.
Have not seen any Elliott Wave on this forum. Here goes!
We are presently correcting a weak USD that began July 6/01 and culmanating in a failed fifth wave on Feb 18/04 at 1.2182. From that point we have started a correction with an (a)(b)(c) -"A" to 1.3226 Apr 25/04. We are presently putting in a "B" wave (an inverted a-b-c flat correction is my guess) and (a) is complete at 1.2701 May 5/05. Now we are in the (b) wave of "B" probably back to the 1.3200 area. Elliott says that mass psychology simply reproduces the same pattern over and over. Print off a closing price (line) chart of the last 30 days, hold it upside down and put it against a bright window. Now look at the pattern repetition from 1.3226 on Apr 25 to 1.3072 on May 10. Here is where mini-me comes in. Now look at basically the same pattern repeated in minute form. WHERE ARE WE? WHERE ARE WE LIKELY TO GO?
My best guess right now is that we have to complete the "B" wave (inverted head & shoulders) pattern then the market will complete the "C" wave of the upward correction to a fibo retracement number or the fourth wave of one lessor degree on the move down from July/01.
It is easier for me to see right side up and that is why I hold the chart upside down and inside out. Make any sense to you?

Yours always
slick 60

merlin,

Just posted what I was seeing at the moment. I would never consider myself anyones hero....

slick 60

I do use e-wave in a not so technical way....I would drive an elliotician crazy. But do believe that the CHF is in a b wave and that the c is to come after one more bounce higher....attached should clarify (four hour chart).

This is all just my humble opinion though.

Back to the one hour chart, updated.

Stay as far as you can from 4x Made Easy I spent $ 3,200 on software and other $ 6,000 on losing trade CLASS action lawsuit is on the way against this bastards.

Hi there,

what is a DMI crossover ? Never heard/seen that one ?
Cheers
toxinfree

Hi,

I was referring to the cross over of the DMI indicator lines. Most chart programs should have this indicator, there are two lines which criss-cross each other to determine the prevailing trend.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...l_movement.htm
has a good write up on it. Hope this helps.

Thanks for posting where to get more info. Also did Merlin answer and/or do you now know the answer for the original question?

"Is the strategy a 14 period DMI crossover on the 60 min ? "

Thanks so much,
Robin

[left]

Hi
This is my first post.
I'm not a daytrader but a med-term trader, but like your post, since of course watch intraday also. As a med-term trader keep positions usually running as far as possible but on the other side naturally use wider stops. Dealing US$/CHF since 1982.
My trading based on different techniques but for the last 5 years started to very closely observe patterns. Patterns repeat itselves. And the amazing thing is it doesn't matter whether it's on 60min. , daily, or weekly charts. They all look the same at the end. So it's all about interpreting these patterns correctly.
Currently short US$/CHF at 1.2475 with S/L 1.2595 and a T/P 1.2185. I'm aware that this move could go 100 pips lower, which would make the outlook for the buck very bleak for the next 3 months.
In the 1.21 area expect a bounce. And try to short later again.

Good luck and keep posting
Carlos Robertos

Anybody here agree with me that the USD/CHF is oversold below the 1.2554-1.2556 range after the sell-off and should be hunted ??

Thanks,

Nader.

I was thinking the same thing, along with the eur/usd where it is now. I have my eye on the 3 hr charts. They are almost identical (inversed). Both showing a potential pin bar at prior resistance. We'll know shortly.

Pipmon

Glad to know that someone got notice of this. Unfortunately, USD/CHF rebounded quickly to 1.2542-44 range. Still far from the 1.2554-56 but off the lows of the mid 30's.

Thanks,

Nader.

Yes they are really inverted and I was trading when EUR/CHF has uptrend with the following strategy. I was buying EUR/USD and BUYing USD/CHF, and looked at EUR/CHF, I gained not much so I do not use it any more.

There was such a move in so short term that there will be correction no doubt. But the question is when? when US can manage disaster and there is no doubt that Greenspan will stop. Consider that bond yields hit highs because traders considered that there will not be more rate hikes and now bought bonds. But I have hope that such USD collapse worthens the oil impact on inflation and Greenspan will not admit it. So there will be hikes I am sure, but correction when I do not know

if youve seen my posts in the treasury thread, you will know that i think you are dead wrong on this. but we shall see my friend, we shall see

i caught the swissy move last night...this is the same pivot point strategy i was posting about in the USDJPY thread..