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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #941
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:15am Apr 29, 2019 4:15am
GM - Dow, Dax & Nas all have high volume, wide ranged shooting stars as their highs this morning on the m5 time frame
. Let's see what happens IF / when the US traders get price back there....
%wise dax has had the largest drop
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #942
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:20am Apr 29, 2019 4:20am
Quoting Islander
GM - Dow, Dax & Nas all have high volume, wide ranged shooting stars as their highs this morning on the m5 time frame . Let's see what happens IF / when the US traders get price back there.... %wise dax has had the largest drop
Dax was pump & dump. All gains plus wiped out for the day. Dow now following.
  • #943
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:38am Apr 29, 2019 4:38am
Anyone short on Dax and Dow, i think there are several options. First if you're well into green, is sit on BE and hold on for a big drop of perhaps 1000 pips or more this week.

Second is take profits now, with Dow just above its m5 200ema/sma, and Dax on its 30m 200ema which is holding as support atm.

Third is set a tp for today, which I would say might be around today's S1 on Dow ( 26,416 ), and S2-S3 on Dax ( 226-200)
  • #944
  • Apr 29, 2019 9:18am Apr 29, 2019 9:18am
Well, Dow was held up on my 90m 20sma which always seemed possible, though I thought that it might have the legs to go all the way down to the 61.8% ( yellow ) today. Hellish pa atm though, look at those 10m stalks! To the upside , it is being held at present by the 61.8%. All to play for now, though I wouldn't be even thinking about taking a position either way right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wall Street 90m.png Size: 50 KB
  • #945
  • Apr 29, 2019 11:03am Apr 29, 2019 11:03am
Quoting cat
Well, Dow was held up on my 90m 20sma which always seemed possible, though I thought that it might have the legs to go all the way down to the 61.8% ( yellow ) today. Hellish pa atm though, look at those 10m stalks! To the upside , it is being held at present by the 61.8%. All to play for now, though I wouldn't be even thinking about taking a position either way right now. {image}

Curiously, ES was tradeable with decent trades to be had during the first hour. And it steamed on to another all-time-high.

But it feels like something's brewing. At the top in October, the PA was just like today - grinding upwards, and then the initial drop happening just before cash close. Then the downhill journey started the day after.

As tomorrow is last day of the month, the pattern may repeat.
  • #946
  • Apr 29, 2019 11:34am Apr 29, 2019 11:34am
Quoting medici
{quote} Curiously, ES was tradeable with decent trades to be had during the first hour. And it steamed on to another all-time-high. But it feels like something's brewing. At the top in October, the PA was just like today - grinding upwards, and then the initial drop happening just before cash close. Then the downhill journey started the day after. As tomorrow is last day of the month, the pattern may repeat.
It does indeed feel like something big is brewing, or, it could just go on like this all summer.

ES?
  • #947
  • Apr 29, 2019 11:42am Apr 29, 2019 11:42am
Remember, Dow is on a triple top/head & shoulder, and the market knows it, which goes a long way towards explaining the pa we are seeing at the moment.

There is also a smaller head & shoulder best seen now on the H4 chart. The forming shoulder should rise up to around the level of the left one, so around 640.
  • #948
  • Apr 29, 2019 11:56am Apr 29, 2019 11:56am
Last post from me today. I've got some potential resistance on the Dow just above at around 585. If it breaks then the price could break new highs for the day, though it might struggle.
  • #949
  • Apr 29, 2019 1:18pm Apr 29, 2019 1:18pm
Quoting cat
{quote} It does indeed feel like something big is brewing, or, it could just go on like this all summer. ES?
Yes, the sideways option is a concern....

Apologies for being brief....ES = the futures contract on the S&P 500 index.
  • #950
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:14pm Apr 29, 2019 2:14pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, the sideways option is a concern.... Apologies for being brief....ES = the futures contract on the S&P 500 index.
Ah right, I thought so.

I have so much indication of a potential top anywhere from here to 27,000 that it's driving me crazy. You know it, I know it, the market knows it, so it's just a question of watch and wait for that big signal, as there has to be one, that the markets have topped. The big US indecis may well break higher with the Dow heading for 30,000, Fed rate cuts and another round of QE will probably do that, but technically right now, these markets are doing just about everything markets do prior to a big fall.
  • #951
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:01pm Apr 29, 2019 4:01pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Ah right, I thought so. I have so much indication of a potential top anywhere from here to 27,000 that it's driving me crazy. You know it, I know it, the market knows it, so it's just a question of watch and wait for that big signal, as there has to be one, that the markets have topped. The big US indecis may well break higher with the Dow heading for 30,000, Fed rate cuts and another round of QE will probably do that, but technically right now, these markets are doing just about everything markets do prior to a big fall.
At the end of the day (and at the beginning too ) fundamentals don't matter. It's all about group psychology.

The current situation reminds me of October 2017 - long, strong push up, then a protracted reduction in volatility (where we are now), then a final burst higher before the massive drop towards the end of January 2018.
  • #952
  • Apr 29, 2019 4:03pm Apr 29, 2019 4:03pm
Cascade Effects In Modern Undiversified Passive Markets
The Ideal Environment For Overnight Gap Risk


This is off the press today....

Let's be hopeful
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Cascade_effects_in_modern_concentrated_financial_markets.pdf   458 KB | 516 downloads
  • #953
  • Apr 30, 2019 1:02am Apr 30, 2019 1:02am
Quoting medici
{quote} At the end of the day (and at the beginning too ) fundamentals don't matter. It's all about group psychology. The current situation reminds me of October 2017 - long, strong push up, then a protracted reduction in volatility (where we are now), then a final burst higher before the massive drop towards the end of January 2018.
I agree with that 100%.
  • #954
  • Apr 30, 2019 1:04am Apr 30, 2019 1:04am
Quoting medici
Cascade Effects In Modern Undiversified Passive Markets The Ideal Environment For Overnight Gap Risk This is off the press today.... Let's be hopeful {image}
Thank you for that Medici, looks very interesting.
  • #955
  • Apr 30, 2019 3:08am Apr 30, 2019 3:08am
Dow caught between its 10m 200ema as S and 100sma as R atm. I think we're building for a drop, but the price, which is really in no man's land atm, could go either way right now, though this R has to crack, as does the S. On a bigger tf, I have 600 as my main R, and 515 ( S1/H1 200sma ) as S. I feel the price could hit either of these today, though not sure which one first, though if I had to say, then I'd plump for the upper limit.

R= resistance
S = support
  • #956
  • Apr 30, 2019 3:42am Apr 30, 2019 3:42am
I have Dax sitting between 12,286 and 12,353, and potentially 12,374.

MACD shaping for a break to downside on Daily TF, but I would need a Daily candle close below 12,286 to warrant a continuation short.

With ATR dropping off a cliff on most Equities and FX markets, I sense an air of complacency across markets. With ATR dropping like this, it could also be slow buying on all dips (accumulation activities).
  • #957
  • Apr 30, 2019 4:00am Apr 30, 2019 4:00am
Quoting cat
{quote} Thank you for that Medici, looks very interesting.
Yes, these chaps have it figured out. Nice summary of what's going on, methinks.
  • #958
  • Apr 30, 2019 6:27am Apr 30, 2019 6:27am
Okay Dow almost up on 600, so this level might hold this slow northward grind
  • #959
  • Apr 30, 2019 7:49am Apr 30, 2019 7:49am
Quoting cat
Remember, Dow is on a triple top/head & shoulder, and the market knows it, which goes a long way towards explaining the pa we are seeing at the moment. There is also a smaller head & shoulder best seen now on the H4 chart. The forming shoulder should rise up to around the level of the left one, so around 640.


Now formed, and although the neckline was just broken, the price has come sharply back. Looking for potential tops today, that is a strong contender.
  • #960
  • Apr 30, 2019 8:13am Apr 30, 2019 8:13am
Quoting cat
Okay Dow almost up on 600, so this level might hold this slow northward grind
Yesterday's all-time-high in the S&P 500 ended with a sharp sell-off into the close, just like back in Ocotober....certainly a sign that the downward momentum could pick up today.
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