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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #921
  • Apr 25, 2019 12:37am Apr 25, 2019 12:37am
January high tested both Tuesday and yesterday, and now falling away. We have a perfect H&S pattern/triple top, so maybe, just maybe, this is the start of the next sustained bout of selling to lower levels.

Sell in May and go away!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wall Street H&S.png Size: 52 KB
  • #922
  • Apr 25, 2019 1:16am Apr 25, 2019 1:16am
Quoting cat
Sell in May and go away! {image}
Thank you for chart

Yes, the whole of April has been very indecisive and low in volume, and with the triple top pattern in clear sight it's hard to see how May could come with firmer buying than April.

And, yes, the selling this morning is a bit out of character, so to say. However things will unfold, it's a welcome increase in volatility This afternoon will be interesting
  • #923
  • Apr 25, 2019 1:31am Apr 25, 2019 1:31am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you for chart Yes, the whole of April has been very indecisive and low in volume, and with the triple top pattern in clear sight it's hard to see how May should come with firmer buying than April. And, yes, the selling this morning is a bit out of character, so to say. However things will unfold, it's a welcome increase in volatility This afternoon will be interesting
You're welcome. In my opinion what we have been seeing over the past few weeks with the low volume and sudden ramping up in the price is indicative of a precursor to some very big selling indeed. I have no idea what may be the cause of it if this is what happens, but one cannot ignore price action. Tuesday's heavy buying, particularly on the Dax, and yesterday's double top with the previous day's high on the Dow, has all the makings of a market top, combined with the triple top/head & shoulder pattern, and I would not be surprised to see indecis fall heavily from here. Still early days though, so we'll have to see.
  • #924
  • Apr 25, 2019 3:58am Apr 25, 2019 3:58am
GM - back from delivery to Italy to rain & cold here

Dow just dropped ~ 110 pts in 3 mins - poor earnings release or something else.
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  • #925
  • Apr 25, 2019 5:46am Apr 25, 2019 5:46am
Maniacs in the West just buy the dip all the time... let's see.
  • #926
  • Apr 25, 2019 5:52am Apr 25, 2019 5:52am
Quoting Islander
GM - back from delivery to Italy to rain & cold here Dow just dropped ~ 110 pts in 3 mins - poor earnings release or something else.
Hello Captain and welcome back.

The drop happened at 6.30am Eastern - not likely to be earnings-related.

Also, interestingly, NQ and ES didn't drop.

Now poor jobs data, and they all drop...
  • #927
  • Apr 25, 2019 5:53am Apr 25, 2019 5:53am
We are due a good 500-1000pts drop at least on Dow. Even if its just profit taking. But sell in May and go away could hold.
  • #928
  • Apr 25, 2019 5:59am Apr 25, 2019 5:59am
Quoting cat
January high tested both Tuesday and yesterday, and now falling away. We have a perfect H&S pattern/triple top, so maybe, just maybe, this is the start of the next sustained bout of selling to lower levels. Sell in May and go away! {image}
understanding how a Triple Tops pattern works
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wall Street H&S.png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: TRIPLE TOP A+B = C beige.png Size: 36 KB
  • #929
  • Apr 25, 2019 6:19am Apr 25, 2019 6:19am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DJI_csv_daily25_04_2019 ENVELOPPES.png Size: 3.2 MB
  • #930
  • Apr 25, 2019 7:19am Apr 25, 2019 7:19am
Quoting medici
{quote} Hello Captain and welcome back. The drop happened at 6.30am Eastern - not likely to be earnings-related. Also, interestingly, NQ and ES didn't drop. Now poor jobs data, and they all drop...
Thanks M - need to get my landlubbers legs - & fingers - back into gear

Looking at % moves, interesting how Dow hit -1% 15 mins after NYSE open and bounced. Now NQ's just hit -1%......will it bounce.....TWT
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  • #931
  • Apr 25, 2019 8:15am Apr 25, 2019 8:15am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} understanding how a Triple Tops pattern works {image} {image}
just a common sense . everyone is thinking to sell indices with stop loss above all time highs. IG says 86% are sellers retail traders , obviously their stop losses are above ATH . if any crash has to happen (i used word if) , it will happen after killing those stops losses .
thanks
  • #932
  • Apr 25, 2019 8:17am Apr 25, 2019 8:17am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thanks M - need to get my landlubbers legs - & fingers - back into gear Looking at % moves, interesting how Dow hit -1% 15 mins after NYSE open and bounced. Now NQ's just hit -1%......will it bounce.....TWT

Now we know

Apparently, the drop was due to 3M:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/stoc...to-report.html
  • #933
  • Apr 25, 2019 9:05am Apr 25, 2019 9:05am
Quoting razaali
{quote} just a common sense . everyone is thinking to sell indices with stop loss above all time highs. IG says 86% are sellers retail traders , obviously their stop losses are above ATH . if any crash has to happen (i used word if) , it will happen after killing those stops losses . thanks
Depends which indices you sell

Nasdaq cleared all time high, S&P is near, Dow needs time, and european are far

Maybe once s&p clears high we could fall, but it can fall anytime now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #934
  • Apr 26, 2019 1:13am Apr 26, 2019 1:13am
Quoting medici
{quote} Now we know Apparently, the drop was due to 3M: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/stoc...to-report.html

Thanks M - I looked, but didnt find this.....see chart in our thread as M1, so not appropriate here
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  • #935
  • Apr 26, 2019 2:29am Apr 26, 2019 2:29am
Should be more downside to come, maybe not today as it might lift a bit, but surely next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wall Street daily.png Size: 65 KB
  • #936
  • Apr 26, 2019 5:03am Apr 26, 2019 5:03am
Yesterday was contained by SMA400@1h, which now seems to be breaking. 26000 this afternoon?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-04-26 at 13.01.49.png Size: 156 KB
  • #937
  • Apr 26, 2019 5:11am Apr 26, 2019 5:11am
That little downpush held to the pip on the 76.4% from yesterday's low. Rising off of that quite strongly, and that is the level to break if this is going lower today. On the flip side, are we going to see some heavy buying off of this support to end the week? I wouldn't bet against it.
  • #938
  • Apr 29, 2019 1:46am Apr 29, 2019 1:46am
Watch this H1 Dow candle which closes at the top of the hour because atm it's a very nice looking shooting star, which would close just below the 76.4% retrace from the April 24th high. I'm not saying it'll fall, but a candle like that if it closed bearish at the level we are at, is definitely worth watching.

Also worth noting is that aggressive push up we had best seen on m5. Nothing too big, but it did have all the characteristics of a death throe move...just another little sign worth noting that we MAY be coming down.
  • #939
  • Edited 2:23am Apr 29, 2019 1:53am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting cat
Watch this H1 Dow candle which closes at the top of the hour because atm it's a very nice looking shooting star, which would close just below the 76.4% retrace from the April 24th high. I'm not saying it'll fall, but a candle like that if it closed bearish at the level we are at, is definitely worth watching. Also worth noting is that aggressive push up we had best seen on m5. Nothing too big, but it did have all the characteristics of a death throe move...just another little sign worth noting that we MAY be coming down.
Yes, looks like it's setting up for selling during the US session. A bit too lethargic right now for my taste, though
  • #940
  • Apr 29, 2019 2:08am Apr 29, 2019 2:08am
Looks like Dax may have topped for today as well/
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