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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #901
  • Mar 20, 2019 9:17am Mar 20, 2019 9:17am
Could be significant that the Dow failed to reach the 26,300 level which it looked like it would challenge yesterday. No rate increase is expected from the Fed later today, so it will be the rhetoric that moves the markets, unless they do raise rates unexpectedly, which I don't think they will for a second, unless they want to see the Dow drop 1000 pips or more by week end.

I think this next drop is building, probably for some time in April/May if not before.
  • #902
  • Mar 20, 2019 11:26am Mar 20, 2019 11:26am
Quoting cat
Could be significant that the Dow failed to reach the 26,300 level which it looked like it would challenge yesterday. No rate increase is expected from the Fed later today, so it will be the rhetoric that moves the markets, unless they do raise rates unexpectedly, which I don't think they will for a second, unless they want to see the Dow drop 1000 pips or more by week end. I think this next drop is building, probably for some time in April/May if not before.
So far it's just a technical move down to SMA200@1h.

I have a sense that if it's heading down, it's going to be from the 26250 area or higher. I may be wrong, of course
  • #903
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:28pm Mar 20, 2019 3:28pm
I like this break of trend, and retest..Dow did also make a lower high yesterday. Maybe one can start selling the rallies Lets see.

On the other hand Nasdaq keeps making new yearly highs..
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  • #904
  • Edited 6:30am Mar 22, 2019 5:34am | Edited 6:30am
The move down from 26100 was a pullback in an upswing, and the expected continuation followed.

There should be a conrinuation up today after an intraday pullback.

What disturbes the picture is the uncharacteristically low volumes since FOMC - suggesting indecision or 'wait till next FOMC" among larger players.

Which could lead to sideways action with larger, more erratic, swings than usual.

Time will tell.
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  • #905
  • Edited 7:35am Mar 22, 2019 6:20am | Edited 7:35am
It pays to keep an eye on the S&P 500 on the side of DJI.

The reason that DJI didn't reach higher than 26100 may simply have been that the S&P 500 was very elevated - above its SMA200 2% envelope. This seems to be confirmed by the fact that the pullback reached exactly to SMA200.

But for the S&P 500, the chart looks overboiught, with a new monthly high, suggesting a drop instead of a continuation up.

It will be an intersting day
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  • #906
  • Mar 22, 2019 10:17am Mar 22, 2019 10:17am
Trying 25640 50p SL
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #907
  • Edited 10:42am Mar 22, 2019 10:20am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting jakucha
Trying 25640 50p SL
Jeez looks like I did a fat finger. +60p, tightened SL.

EDIT: Stopped out, -30p. On to the next.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #908
  • Mar 23, 2019 3:25am Mar 23, 2019 3:25am
Friday's action could finally start the next leg down(long term). If so the lows of December 2018 will be revisited as a minimum.

Fundamentals are all starting to come together(recessions) so its only a matter of time before a sustained move down eventuates to price in the slowing economies.
  • #909
  • Mar 23, 2019 6:30am Mar 23, 2019 6:30am
Quoting shrips;12147719[B
]Friday's action could finally start the next leg down(long term).[/b] If so the lows of December 2018 will be revisited as a minimum. Fundamentals are all starting to come together(recessions) so its only a matter of time before a sustained move down eventuates to price in the slowing economies.
Agree shrips, though I would argue that the next leg down began with that powerful looking weekly doji on the Dow 4 weeks ago, then Tuesday's pa when the price snapped back from early gains, and then yesterday when the Dow failed to reach Tuesday's high and was then sold heavily.

It now looks increasingly likely that this resistance level of 26,000 - 26,300 is going to hold, and so yes, I also think now that we could well see some very heavy selling back down towards 22,000, although it is possible that it tests this 25,200 level again and gets bought back up, but surely, the next big selling spree is not if, but when, and by when, I mean an imminent when.
  • #910
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:57am Mar 23, 2019 7:57am
measured objective target now for the DJIA is about 27250... there and above it must be shorted to target it back to 2009 lows in about 10 years or so... projected longer-term target level is in the vicinity of 4500... we will never see the levels above 28K in our lifetime...
  • #911
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:23am Mar 23, 2019 8:23am
Its really hard with this Dow.

I think we will test the Daily 100ema/200sma at its convergence at some stage next week, this is inevitable.

The thing is, the US$ printing machine is way out of control. If Trump doesn't do something about their Fiscal deficit and their current Taxpayer debt (@ US$181,000 per taxpayer lol), then in the next crisis I think US$ confidence may start to wane in either a slow or abrupt manner. Fundamentally, a revaluation of the US$ by 1/3 relative to other currencies is very possible.

The thing with a rapid decrease in the local currency value can cause massive rises in their local bourse. Just look at the Venezualan stock market lol. I'm not expecting a rapid depreciation in the US$ like the Venezualan Bolivar, however, a revaluation closer to the Chinese Yuan valuation is inevitable over time imho.
  • #912
  • Mar 23, 2019 8:36am Mar 23, 2019 8:36am
in my opinion it's gonna look like NIKKEI dropping from the top of about 40K level in 1990 into under 8K area within just a few years and never recovering back again since then...
  • #913
  • Mar 28, 2019 6:10pm Mar 28, 2019 6:10pm
Last trading day of the month tomorrow, and the Dow is still in that 25,200 - 26,300 range just ping ponging up and down.

Two charts here, H1 & H6. I think there's a chance that the highs of the last couple of days could be broken tomorrow but that H1 200sma resistance level obviously needs to break. The 61.8% fib is just above ( yellow line ) with the 76.4% ( orange ). Alternatively, the price could just as easily come back and finish the day somewhere between 25,500-750. That said, on my charts the possibility of a break out to the north is looking pretty good, perhaps up to 26,000 to finish the month.

That would only put the Dow back towards the top end of this weekly range. I'm still favouring a big drop either in April or May, it's just not quite there yet technically for me, but I'll make sure to post if and when I see it approaching.
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  • #914
  • Apr 2, 2019 10:18am Apr 2, 2019 10:18am
So, Dow has tested that all important 26,300 upper range level, and as you can see for yourselves, has been rejected by it pretty conclusively as I type, in fact, the hourly candle couldn't even close above it.

Early days, so we'll see what the next 48 hours brings.
  • #915
  • Apr 5, 2019 11:22am Apr 5, 2019 11:22am
Quoting Igrok
measured objective target now for the DJIA is about 27250... there and above it must be shorted to target it back to 2009 lows in about 10 years or so... projected longer-term target level is in the vicinity of 4500... we will never see the levels above 28K in our lifetime...
I'm with you on the upside target, and that the top for the next several years will be in that area. Less sure about your downside projections. Could you share a little bit more about those?
  • #916
  • Apr 6, 2019 10:32am Apr 6, 2019 10:32am
Quoting medici
{quote} I'm with you on the upside target, and that the top for the next several years will be in that area. Less sure about your downside projections. Could you share a little bit more about those?
there is a probability that there will be another single-diagonal diamond formed at current levels with the main diagonal's low already established at 21712 and the projected top being somewhere at or above 27250... is such a case there is at least 70-80% probability that this reversal pattern will eventually call for the entire previous uptrend to be fully erased and covered back to the downside... the most important supportive trendline in that area comes near 4500 in about 10 years from now....
  • #917
  • Apr 7, 2019 11:48am Apr 7, 2019 11:48am
Without even knowing what i am talking about since i only do TA, and are not so much of a fundi analyst, I am starting to think that stock market doesnt care about economics, its only an asset to create wealth and especially now when interest rates are so low. There is no where else to make money than stocks.

Sometimes it even fells that this is not a free market anymore with CB keep buying. They wont let this collapse.

Looking at a 100 year chart on dow, the last bull market lasted 18 years, so we are only half way.. It then paused from year 2000 until it first made a new ATH 13 years later in 2013. in the mean time we had a 20% correction.

I do not know nothing but in the bigger picture mayby i wont look for a collapse anymore but more of buying the dip!

Lets see
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  • #918
  • Apr 9, 2019 8:02am Apr 9, 2019 8:02am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} there is a probability that there will be another single-diagonal diamond formed at current levels with the main diagonal's low already established at 21712 and the projected top being somewhere at or above 27250... is such a case there is at least 70-80% probability that this reversal pattern will eventually call for the entire previous uptrend to be fully erased and covered back to the downside... the most important supportive trendline in that area comes near 4500 in about 10 years from now....
Thank you, that makes sense. At the same time, predictions beyond the coming day or week are more of a pastime for me, and not related to my trading. And currently it looks like the 26500 area may very well have been the top for this spring/year
  • #919
  • Apr 19, 2019 5:06pm Apr 19, 2019 5:06pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you, that makes sense. At the same time, predictions beyond the coming day or week are more of a pastime for me, and not related to my trading. And currently it looks like the 26500 area may very well have been the top for this spring/year
unlikely... though it doesn't really matter whether we have already seen the top or not yet... to me it's quite clear that at least the minimal correction is due from current levels and it must be at least back to 19000 level initially... and this is regardless of the actual top whether it's already in place or yet to be formed...
  • #920
  • Apr 24, 2019 4:53am Apr 24, 2019 4:53am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} unlikely... though it doesn't really matter whether we have already seen the top or not yet... to me it's quite clear that at least the minimal correction is due from current levels and it must be at least back to 19000 level initially... and this is regardless of the actual top whether it's already in place or yet to be formed...
Yes, Thursday's action off SMA200@1h confirmed that, and 27000 is now in sight. And, yes, agreed - a correction will come, and it will be more substantial than the one in 4Q of 2018. The timing of it, I wouldn't hazard a guess on. Would you?
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