Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

Here's one that's a little bit more nuanced. Sometimes I'll come across charts that look remarkably similar. In this case all the companies are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). In these cases, to me it makes more sense to think about them all as the same trade. Here's a trade I took last week where I'm long all 4 of these stocks, but really thinking about it as one trade. TradingView will actually let you graph them as 1 security, which i think is rather cool (that's what the chart shows, the value of this trade over time)

The sizes are somewhat arbitrary -- for instance if you only wanted $10k in the trade, you would just scale this trade down to the below:
LPT $48.59 x 51 shares
AVB $198.97 x 13
DRE $30.57 x 82
UDR $45.13 x 55

But the chart would pretty much look the same:


One thing to note here is that these types of trades only make sense if you have a cheap broker. Doing trades like this on very small size with larger commissions will eat you alive.

This thread should be re-titled Sean's breakout thread since that's all I post lately.

Here are two I took this week. One candle finished way better than the other and i'm sure it's not hard to see which. Either way I like both and may buy more of each. Consider REXR as part of the trade I entered above, so now I have 5 REIT names as part of the basket above.


MDLZ
REXR

For any of you all who do trade stocks, there's a tool from Morningstar called "instant x-ray" that can be pretty useful. If you're interested what my portfolio looks like these days, here's what they spit out...

Many of these names should be familiar to those that have seen some of the charts I've posted over the last few months/years.

Thanks S - I’ll take a look..

Liked the 1st chart; basically anything like horizontal line based support/resistant levels are my favorite; since the entry/exit points are clear.

If you like horizontal support/resistance breaks (and you trade US Stocks), you're going to like this thread.

I try to only post things I plan on investing in myself and I try to mark down stop-loss points where i"ll bag the trade if it goes against me. Occasionally I'll buy put options as stop losses. Anyhow, welcome to the thread.

Here are a few for your viewing pleasure. I have no positions in any of these. As you know, I did have a position in FAST and still do (not pictured below).

Happy Friday.

Yes I’m and I see, you are really working hard. Best wishes.

Here's a stock that's in the news a lot. And here's an article From Josh Brown that's worth your time to read:
https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/0...-lower-prices/

This is nice marrying of Tech and Fundamental analysis. A company like Tesla will rely on funding/borrowing as it deals with cash burn. If confidence wanes and lenders dry up, times could be a tough when you have a massive convertible bond coming due 1.75yrs.

But on the other hand, let's say a guy like Buffet invests $5bn in preferred stock (totally made up scenario, but don't laugh Berkshire and/or Buffet himself could write this check tomorrow given their cash position and the fact that they've done stuff like that with GS, etc) - What does that do to a stock like this? Without any debt worries and sufficient cash to make it through a tough time the pressure on the stock goes away and this thing flies. Now, I know, this is not a Buffet style company (this ain't a value stock), but let's face it, the man is 88yrs old and a bit of a liberal. Perhaps he doesn't look at it as an investment but putting his money where his mouth is on climate change. Perhaps it's not Buffet, maybe it's the Vision Fund guy, or the guys that own the 1.25% Converts due in March 2021 decide to just restructure that and/or extend the maturity/increase the coupon, lower the strike price? Perhaps a Trump tweet could take this thing in either direction. I bet DJT secretly love's Elon's "F-the SEC" attitude that he had on display. Elon's a maverick who's not afraid to flirt with bankruptcy -- we know Trump loves the bankruptcy code!!

My points is that even the best Technical Analysis and sound charting won't save you from a fundamental events like any of the ones i just described. So Josh is right, this could easily fall to $180 or even beyond as its allure dries up (as does funding for a massively cashflow and ROE negative company). But in the event that "funding is secured" I'd want to have an quick escape hatch to save myself from a moonshot to $400/share.

But i guess what I'm trying to get at here is that this strikes to the very heart/core of TA and whether it works. Does it work? Sure, sometimes. Do events happen that are completely out of the hands of a chartist? Also, Yes. The "event" described above would blow up any chart you can draw no matter how good the "risk-reward" looks on the chart. But it's also why it's important to know when you're wrong and have a stop loss if you can.

As it relates to Tesla specifically -- I'd keep an open mind, and I'd almost pay as much attention to the converts more than the stock itself. The converts yield 2.59% to worst. Is that the right level for a Single-B rated company that's cashflow negative, negative ROE, etc? I don't care how innovative you are, that's not the right yield. Now converts are messy, there's that call option embedded into this thing, so that's definitely worth something and there's a lot of smart hedge funds I'm sure playing the arb between converts, common stock, and stock options. If you convert it, you'd get 2.778 shares for every $1,000 you own, equating to a $359 price on the stock. So the option is well out of the money. You'll take your $1,000 at maturity thank you very much (that's a cool $1.5bn that Tesla's gonna cough up to pay that off/refinance it).

i'm rambling here, but you get the idea, investing in the stock and the convert is risky and "events" like bankruptcy or massive investments/capital raises and yes, sentiment and momentum will move this stock. Whether you prefer the former or the latter depends on your position (long or short). Here's my rudimentary analysis on both the stock and the convert. Happy trading to all!

As a side note, and I don't wan to tip my hand here, but don't you kinda want an innovator/disruptor like Musk to succeed? Shouldn't we root for guys like that? But on the other hand, i do like my stocks to have a PE ratio and reasonable leverage ratios. And that last bit where you become emotionally involved in a stock can usually lead to bad trading decisions.

Stock:


Bond/Convert:

I didn't take that many trades in April... life got in the way of trading. I gotta check my records, but this looks like the last trade I really put on.

In case you're wondering on some of the things I haven't published, I guess you'd call this area on my computer the "Rough Draft" section... Ideas that I grabbed but never finalized/published.

So I haven't been doing nothing... just nothing fully baked...

I posted 4 charts over on StockTwits. Here they are:

I did not buy any of those last 4 charts.

I did buy these two this week. One went up, one went down. Such is life.

This is one of those weeks where everything I see looks like a pattern, so clearly take these with a grain of salt. And mostly daily charts to boot...

Re: my prior post, I am now long HXL and PGR.

Here are a few i'm considering following this weekend's scans:

VRSK i've posted before but somehow got stopped out (at a profit i think) on a prior trade. I've long wished I had never sold it. PODD has had quite a run but after reading about their product a bit, think it sounds very intriguing. IIPR/LNTH need to read up on more.

Hi everyone

Messing around with Power BI this morning. Here's what the InfinitySL portfolio looks like at present (sized by market value %). Only issue here is that it can't show short-positions (or if it can, i don't know how to do that yet).

Kinda cool...

A few I noted for my chartbook. Market seems a little extended so I'm still playing pretty safe (small position sizes, tighter stops).

What are you trading?

Hi Sean, I noticed that a few months back you were strongly into REITs. I have a view on REITs which I want to share with you for your consideration.

In the UK the "High Street" is a very uncertain place. Lots of the previously big names are under immense pressure due to internet competition (and sometimes due to arrogant staff). Some store chains are making arrangements with their landlords for rent payments, i.e. they are beating down the costs on the basis that otherwise the store will go out of business. Some of these store chain senior management types are pretty sharp cookies, so it is a bit difficult to know the truth, however there are store closures occurring as some of these businesses are reducing their overheads.

Stepping back, in the past this has been a precursor to recession as the jobless numbers start to grow. Granted that is not yet happening, both the UK and US unemployment rate are trending down. So what is really needed is a measure of disposable income in the labour force.

In summation I now view Real Estate as a dubious investment vehicle. If you or anyone is simply trading this off the chart, as an instrument, then by all means carry on. For long term investment I now consider only Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) as a safe bet, and only because Student Accommodation at university towns is normally in short supply.

Hey man,

Thanks for the comment. I tend to agree, you have to be a little careful with which REITs you're playing in. Some of the retail-focused REITs seem a little dicey to me (e.g. Simon Property, mall operators, and even office REITs).

The ones i have exposure to are generally residential rentals (EQR, UDR, and AVB are both big operators of multi-family housing, e.g. apartment buildings, etc).
DRE does warehouses (so think amazon last mile type of stuff) and REXR is more focused on Industrial space.
And to the extent you think that CCI and SBAC are REITS, they are really cell-tower companies.

But like you alluded to, I am kind of following the chart a bit. On a more fundamental basis, I do think that REITs and utilities benefit from the continued falling of interest rates here. With 10yr US Treasuries down to about 2% the idea of a company generating a 3-4% dividend that grows over time with the economy is going to be appealing, especially as folks closer to retirement realize they have nowhere to turn for income.

That being said, the trade is a little long in the tooth, i have no reason to sell, but my stops have been appropriately moved up as this has gone our way.

Definitely appreciate the dialogue though!

-SL