US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing? | Page 43 | Forex Factory

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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #841
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:27pm Mar 13, 2019 4:27pm
Quoting jakucha
{quote} I feel you, it's difficult. When I see that a majority of retail traders are short, I question myself. I would love to short indices when Dax reaches 11900 or so, if it goes there, which worries me cause it's lagging at the moment and it might truncate. Was picturing a more furious Dax. But I could see Dax going there and other indices climbing before a nice drop, which will precede a nice climb again. My two cents, and this is just wave 3 (this is completely subjective so it might not make sense at all). Possible take profits in black and...
Yes it looks like this counter trend rally is still very strong - so will be looking for longs again the rest of this week. First target 25850 and if that doesn't hold as resistance then 26000 becomes the obvious target.
  • #842
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:43pm Mar 13, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Yes it looks like this counter trend rally is still very strong - so will be looking for longs again the rest of this week. First target 25850 and if that doesn't hold as resistance then 26000 becomes the obvious target.
I reevaluate all the time. When I look at a monthly chart it looks like apocalypse is coming, still, I try to stick to what I see on lower TFs for now while completely agreeing to the possibility that I am absolutely wrong. Could crash in a few hours when I am sleeping. Take care.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #843
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:45pm Mar 13, 2019 4:45pm
Looking at EURUSD levels, there is a chance to see a stronger dax tomorrow.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #844
  • Mar 14, 2019 2:51am Mar 14, 2019 2:51am
GM - this morning, buying is happening off SMA200 on the hourly. Below a 5 minute chart with SMA2400.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-03-14 at 07.49.43.png Size: 84 KB
  • #845
  • Mar 14, 2019 7:19am Mar 14, 2019 7:19am
Quoting jakucha
A strong close above the black line is meaningful. May be important on the way down. {image} {image}
Close enough. Closed 3 longs for +136p. Tricky structure now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dowthursdayscalp.png Size: 50 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #846
  • Mar 14, 2019 7:45am Mar 14, 2019 7:45am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} Close enough. Closed 3 longs for +136p. Tricky structure now. {image}
Agreed. My take on it is that the bulls are going to hammer the upside of this channel until it breaks.

Below a 5 minute chart with an 80 period 0.25% envelope.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-03-14 at 12.44.08.png Size: 79 KB
  • #847
  • Mar 14, 2019 7:55am Mar 14, 2019 7:55am
Quoting medici
{quote} Agreed. My take on it is that the bulls are going to hammer the upside of this channel until it breaks. Below a 5 minute chart with an 80 period 0.25% envelope. {image}
Thanks for sharing. I am always amazed how two people can look at something under a completely different angle and find a similar outcome out of different significant points of interest.

I am not convinced by this move up on Dow though, lacks a bit of impulse / momentum. NY might try to get their own low of the day.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #848
  • Mar 14, 2019 8:05am Mar 14, 2019 8:05am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} I am not convinced by this move up on Dow though, lacks a bit of impulse / momentum. NY might try to get their own low of the day.
Yes, this could go down to SMA100 on the hourly, about 150 points down, before the day is over.
  • #849
  • Mar 14, 2019 9:42am Mar 14, 2019 9:42am
Sometimes I think it's a lot easier just to trade out of hours on the Dow. There were some easy pips to be had this morning going long and then short. Frankly I'd rather watch paint dry than sit through this open waiting for direction for an hour or more.
  • #850
  • Mar 14, 2019 9:57am Mar 14, 2019 9:57am
Quoting tomase
Sometimes I think it's a lot easier just to trade out of hours on the Dow. There were some easy pips to be had this morning going long and then short. Frankly I'd rather watch paint dry than sit through this open waiting for direction for an hour or more.
Indeed. I prefer to trade tre mornings, and today was an easy long for the open.

When it comes to the drying paint, I tend to focus my attention around the turn of the half hours, which is when things a likley to happen.

Such as now, a fw minutes before 3pm
  • #851
  • Mar 14, 2019 10:06am Mar 14, 2019 10:06am
Quoting medici
{quote} Indeed. I prefer to trade tre mornings, and today was an easy long for the open. When it comes to the drying paint, I tend to focus my attention around the turn of the half hours, which is when things a likley to happen. Such as now, a fw minutes before 3pm
Yes I've noticed much the same - 3pm, 3.30, 4 and 4.30. But watching this mess for 2 hours or more is just wearying.
  • #852
  • Mar 14, 2019 10:47am Mar 14, 2019 10:47am
Finally. Took a long @25695 off the M5 200ema just after 3.30 and some momentum seems to have crept in at last. We'll see if it breaks this mornings high.
  • #853
  • Mar 14, 2019 11:33am Mar 14, 2019 11:33am
Quoting tomase
Finally. Took a long @25695 off the M5 200ema just after 3.30 and some momentum seems to have crept in at last. We'll see if it breaks this mornings high.
For me it's SMA50 on the 1 minute.
  • #854
  • Mar 14, 2019 11:43am Mar 14, 2019 11:43am
Quoting medici
{quote} For me it's SMA50 on the 1 minute.
Either way it's going nowhere fast at the moment - the early momentum seems to have fizzled out. A very indecisive afternoon. Let's hope for a late spurt!
  • #855
  • Mar 14, 2019 11:52am Mar 14, 2019 11:52am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Either way it's going nowhere fast at the moment - the early momentum seems to have fizzled out. A very indecisive afternoon. Let's hope for a late spurt!
Exactly what I'm thinking
  • #856
  • Mar 14, 2019 12:09pm Mar 14, 2019 12:09pm
Stopped out at b/e and I've had enough for today.
  • #857
  • Mar 14, 2019 12:30pm Mar 14, 2019 12:30pm
Both Dax and Dow have powerful resistance atm, the 637 area on the Dax which double topped today, which on the Daily tf if we look at the whole month of March so far is the Daily 200sma area on IG's prorealtime charts, and the 200ema on Intertrader's. I would say this level will break down south rather than break out north, though I may be wrong.

Similarly, Dow looks well held atm around this 780 level, and with the H4 100sma just above @ 816, I think currently it looks more likely to be building towards a move to the south. That said, there is strong support on the daily 200sma @ 25,235, so it loks like we've got a lot or range trading ahead of us, so well calculated profit taking and not holding our for anything too big looks to be the order of the day atm.
  • #858
  • Mar 14, 2019 12:41pm Mar 14, 2019 12:41pm
My sense of what's going on is that SMA200@1h is sloping down a bit too much for sollid buying from this level.

I guess SMA100 needs another visit, and from there the rocket will take off and fly through SMA400@1h = SMA100@4h.

But I've been wrong before
  • #859
  • Mar 14, 2019 12:59pm Mar 14, 2019 12:59pm
Quoting medici
My sense of what's going on is that SMA200@1h is sloping down a bit too much for sollid buying from this level. I guess SMA100 needs another visit, and from there the rocket will take off and fly through SMA400@1h = SMA100@4h. But I've been wrong before
100 or 200sma, which has got beneath the price now, so yes, this is definitely a possible scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #860
  • Mar 14, 2019 1:01pm Mar 14, 2019 1:01pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Either way it's going nowhere fast at the moment - the early momentum seems to have fizzled out. A very indecisive afternoon. Let's hope for a late spurt!
At least we're not trading EU
Hidden in plain sight.
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