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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #801
  • Mar 7, 2019 5:04am Mar 7, 2019 5:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} That would be continue, commence would have to be higher. Atm there is no reason to take profit if short, though if I wanted to short, then it would not be here. That's the best answer I can come up with I'm afraid. Same with Dax.
Agreed. But from an intraday perspective, buying started at 7.30, and has been slow but persistent, with three green hourly closes. Levels for the selling to re-commence could be anywhere from current level (R1) if the buying stalls, to SMA20@1h around 25650, to possibly higher.

I'm holding on to my long and am waiting for the next hourly close
  • #802
  • Edited 5:35am Mar 7, 2019 5:14am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Getting closer to first target zone. If we get a Weekly close below 500ish, then it will continue next week.
My guess is that the journey downwards will continue for another couple of weeks.
  • #803
  • Edited 6:26am Mar 7, 2019 6:13am | Edited 6:26am
As expected, the junkies have started their Draghi spunk fest. Likely to last until 12.45, at least.
  • #804
  • Mar 7, 2019 8:47am Mar 7, 2019 8:47am
The day pretty much panning out as I guessed it would, and the Draghi popcorn pump got dumped as it so often does. S2 on Dax now, but both Dax and Dow can fall further as noted above ( Dow H4 200ema )
  • #805
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:04am Mar 7, 2019 9:04am
The Dow is 2% from its SMA200@1h - often a stop and reverse level
  • #806
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:09am Mar 7, 2019 9:09am
Quoting medici
The Dow is 2% from its SMA200@1h - often a stop and reverse level
It's also on its H4 200sma, so yes, a pullback from here would be no surprise.
  • #807
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:23am Mar 7, 2019 9:23am
Quoting cat
{quote} It's also on its H4 200sma, so yes, a pullback from here would be no surprise.
Taken out, but Dax, which is on its H2 200ema looks like it may be running out of steam.
  • #808
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:33am Mar 7, 2019 10:33am
Can't believe it's been ten years since the bottom of the 2008/9 crash was reached on the 2 monthly 200ema. I hadn't long looked at a financial chart for the very first time, but I do remember the sudden downward acceleration of the price just before it put in a bottom, what I have since learned is a powerful indication of a top or bottom, the telltale ' Death throe ' before price reverses. Oh the wonders of hindsight!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #809
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:39am Mar 7, 2019 10:39am
Quoting cat
Can't believe it's been ten years since the bottom of the 2008/9 crash was reached on the 2 monthly 200ema. I hadn't long looked at a financial chart for the very first time, but I do remember the sudden downward acceleration of the price just before it put in a bottom, what I have since learned is a powerful indication of a top or bottom, the telltale ' Death throe ' before price reverses. Oh the wonders of hindsight! {image}
What Islander calls a "wide ranged high volume candle". Siuch as the 2pm candle down....and then even higher volume in the 3pm reversal candle....after which it was time to jump on board

Note also that these two candles were of the highest volume since the sell-off Monday. Another sign....

What was your target again? SMA100?
  • #810
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:56am Mar 7, 2019 10:56am
Quoting medici
{quote} What Islander calls a "wide ranged high volume candle". Siuch as the 2pm candle down....and then even higher volume in the 3pm reversal candle....after which it was time to jump on board Note also that these two candles were of the highest volume since the sell-off Monday. Another sign.... What was your target again? SMA100?
To the downside, my target for Dow today was the H4 200ema/sma @ 424, as posted earlier. Then I said that what often happens is that the price, on any tf, has a tendency to lift back up either to or towards the 100sma before turning for a further leg down. So we'll see what NFP throws at us tomorrow.
  • #811
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:10am Mar 7, 2019 11:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} To the downside, my target for Dow today was the H4 200ema/sma @ 424, as posted earlier. Then I said that what often happens is that the price, on any tf, has a tendency to lift back up either to or towards the 100sma before turning for a further leg down. So we'll see what NFP throws at us tomorrow.
Thank you. Makes sense.

For this afternoon/eve I'm thinking back to where it started, i.e. 25600 area.

And the 4pm candle had higher volume than any candle yesterday. Mostly due to people protecting stops above Camarilla L5, where the battle now stands.
  • #812
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:44am Mar 7, 2019 11:44am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you. Makes sense. For this afternoon/eve I'm thinking back to where it started, i.e. 25600 area. And the 4pm candle had higher volume than any candle yesterday. Mostly due to people protecting stops above Camarilla L5, where the battle now stands.
  • #813
  • Mar 7, 2019 11:59am Mar 7, 2019 11:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW 55 7 MARS 2019.png Size: 1.0 MB
  • #814
  • Mar 7, 2019 2:28pm Mar 7, 2019 2:28pm
DOW Closed Short position + 84 points

Entry after the break of the green Ascending Valid Trend Line 44°

Gliding Stop Losses positioned on the successive lower preceding Tops

Sold on Touching of the Support Zone formed by the lower Limits of the Enveloppes 32 TU (blue) and 256 TU (brown) where Price Action hesitated to go lower and finally was rejected higher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW SHORT 2 7 MARS 2019.png Size: 1.0 MB
  • #815
  • Mar 8, 2019 8:50am Mar 8, 2019 8:50am
Long on the Dow @25252 with a target around the 25600 area at the 38.2 fib.
  • #816
  • Mar 8, 2019 3:17pm Mar 8, 2019 3:17pm
Holy Moly that's a brave finish. If this holds we have a daily bullish pin on HTF trendline retest. Currently +260p. Can it revisit 26100? Yen pairs need to bounce along. GBPJPY could be interesting. If not it's all going down the drain for good.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: dowfridaydaily.png Size: 68 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #817
  • Mar 9, 2019 10:37pm Mar 9, 2019 10:37pm
Referring to the 1st original post ... I have a question.

When the US stock market crashes as everybody is predicting, which way will the EUR/USD move ?

I'm just curious how traders would position themselve ? Would you be in a "LONG" or "SHORT" positon and for how long ?

Any suggestions, insight, related links ?

I would be grateful, thank you.

Tom :-)
  • #818
  • Mar 10, 2019 8:31am Mar 10, 2019 8:31am
I'm expecting Dow to reach for another reversal to downside and test Daily 200sma and go lower.

These will be my area's for shorts later this week potentially:

25,725-750: 50% Fib or 7sma Daily.

25,847-870: 61.8% Fib or 20sma Daily.
  • #819
  • Mar 11, 2019 12:52pm Mar 11, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting jakucha
Holy Moly that's a brave finish. If this holds we have a daily bullish pin on HTF trendline retest. Currently +260p. Can it revisit 26100? Yen pairs need to bounce along. GBPJPY could be interesting. If not it's all going down the drain for good. {image} {image}
OK. Day's not over but so far going as I thought on Friday. I usually do not do that but moved my BE stop lower to allow a double tap of the daily descending trendline and flip SR on H4. Gap was above so odds looked positive, even though it was painful to see a revisit to entry. Added two positions after PA confirmed reaction and probability of filing the gap. Currently holding the three for around +1000p.

We're back to significant levels for sellers so let's see. There a bit of room higher for fibs/harmonic levels, 25700-25800, as pointed out by PariCovek. But in terms of HTF structure, this could possibly go back to historic highs in the next few weeks. What's surprising is that Dax is lagging when I thought it would be leading.

And GBPJPY rallied along nicely as suspected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow monday.png Size: 55 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #820
  • Mar 12, 2019 6:07am Mar 12, 2019 6:07am
Quoting PariCovek
I'm expecting Dow to reach for another reversal to downside and test Daily 200sma and go lower. These will be my area's for shorts later this week potentially: 25,725-750: 50% Fib or 7sma Daily. 25,847-870: 61.8% Fib or 20sma Daily.
I didn't enter, however 750 would've made for a nice entry after the shooting star about 8 hours ago.
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