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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #721
  • Mar 1, 2019 2:47am Mar 1, 2019 2:47am
Quoting cat
Despite the Dax pushing higher during the Asian session, the Dow has not got above its 61.8% from the high of the 26th, and at the moment to me it looks like it is really going to struggle to today, which if so, will give us our first negative weekly candle for over two months, right up in this incredibly critical head & shoulder/triple top zone where it is now. No NFP today, that's next week, but Powell speaks later. I think Dax is a short today, at least initially, and I wouldn't go near longing it at these levels so close to the Daily 200ema....
Go with trend my friend... Dax is still miles below its high. should smash the 200sma D today easily
  • #722
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:05am Mar 1, 2019 3:05am
Go with the trend yes indeed, and today this is certainly true as Dax and now Dow power their way north, but these are still potentially powerful resistance levels on both, so if long, do you stay in full, scale down, or get out whilst you're ahead. Always a difficult one. This could rise another 200 pips today sure, but it could just as easily come crashing back down to yesterday's high. You've just gotta make your choice from what your charts are telling you.
  • #723
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:17am Mar 1, 2019 3:17am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Go with trend my friend... Dax is still miles below its high. should smash the 200sma D today easily
If it does, then certainly the Dax weekly chart shows Dax has plenty of clear water to move up to 12-12,500, which would also mean the Dow breaking to new highs, something I have never ruled out going by the Dow monthly chart. Rate cuts by the Fed, another round of quantitative easing, and we could see the Dow moving towards 30,000. Enough speculation though, let's deal with this bullish monster the Dax for now.

Aslo look at Dow. There's a very pretty H&S pattern atm, 21st Feb the left shoulder, 25th the head, 26th a sort of inner right shoulder, and now. The 61.8% from the 25th high falls level with the left shoulder,@ 26,100, with the 76.4% @ 155. These are the levels I'll be watching closely today.
  • #724
  • Mar 1, 2019 4:09am Mar 1, 2019 4:09am
So, plumb contact with the Dax daily 200ema @ 650 ( Intertrader prorealtime charts ) and the daily 200 sma @ 664 ( IG Index prorealtime charts )

Dow weekly candle, as it stands right now, is a powerful looking doji. All will depend upon this afternoon's price action, but a weekly doji or shooting star, at these levels, after more than two months of straight up gains, well, I would be cashing in as an investor that's for sure, if I hadn't done already.
  • #725
  • Mar 1, 2019 4:18am Mar 1, 2019 4:18am
I've shorted Dow from 070 going for the big one, SL 40 which seems about right as it puts me above the 61.8% and given the risk/reward. For a relative scalper, this is a very wide SL for me.
  • #726
  • Mar 1, 2019 4:26am Mar 1, 2019 4:26am
What we need now is a Trump tweet calling the Chinese leader fat duplicitous slob, and we'll be in business.
  • #727
  • Edited 4:44am Mar 1, 2019 4:34am | Edited 4:44am
GM - interesting conversation

I thought I'd share some of my struggles with this.

What I've learned from experience is that if I approach the market by considering various scenarios as to what might happen, and try to figure out the likely one, then I end up in one of two positions: 1. If I feel confident, I take a trade based on an optimistic scenario, or 2. If I feel less confident, I end up talking myself out of a trade.

Briefly put, then, scenario-based trading gets me into emotional trading. At my current level of understanding, the remedy for this is to trade based on what is actually happening. and to have objective rules for determining what is happening. And for me, those rules have to be based on a single 1m/5m chart only, with the hourly as big pic, which sets the context for the trading plan.

This morning, the Dow was back up at it's SMA100@1h resistance level after a triple bottom at 25900 - the target for the fabulous Friday 15th rally. Potential continuation possible after a couple of weeks of consolidation. Or a bull trap ahead of the big drop.

Then go to 1m to objectively assess what's going on. I use SMA200 and SMA400 on the 1 minute chart to get an idea of what's going on and what the potential is. Both were lined up in an upward sloping direction. Then I look at the faster MAs (20, 50, 100). If extended, then a possible/likely reversal. If compressed, then a likely continuation.

Finally, wait for setup and trigger. Either a pullback to the bottom of the range - SMA400 and Camarilla H4 at 8.15, or a breakout at 8.45, depending on taste.

Makes sense?
  • #728
  • Mar 1, 2019 4:50am Mar 1, 2019 4:50am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #729
  • Mar 1, 2019 5:13am Mar 1, 2019 5:13am
Quoting parisboy
{image}
A trader from France, my favourite country in the whole wide world, so a big welcome to you. What's that chart telling you my friend?
  • #730
  • Mar 1, 2019 5:30am Mar 1, 2019 5:30am
Quoting cat
{quote} A trader from France, my favourite country in the whole wide world, so a big welcome to you. What's that chart telling you my friend?
Cat Thanks for your kind words

my thread on the methods used is here : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12064065
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX ANALYSIS FOR CAT.png Size: 3.3 MB
  • #731
  • Mar 1, 2019 5:46am Mar 1, 2019 5:46am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Cat Thanks for your kind words my thread on the methods used is here : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12064065 {image}
I would not dispute that. Thanks for dropping by.
  • #732
  • Mar 1, 2019 6:31am Mar 1, 2019 6:31am
Might be too brave but started shorting the two of them. 10800 being my ideal zone for dax. Dow not quite sure.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #733
  • Mar 1, 2019 7:20am Mar 1, 2019 7:20am
Ideal scenario would be a risk off afternoon with indices down and gold up. NY like to make their own highs or lows of the day so let's see.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #734
  • Mar 1, 2019 7:42am Mar 1, 2019 7:42am
Quoting jakucha
Ideal scenario would be a risk off afternoon with indices down and gold up. NY like to make their own highs or lows of the day so let's see.
Bonds down = risk on? The 10 year note has just broken through an upward sloping trend line

But the Dow is indeed moving south. Still in consolidation mode, though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #735
  • Mar 1, 2019 8:06am Mar 1, 2019 8:06am
Quoting jakucha
Ideal scenario would be a risk off afternoon with indices down and gold up. NY like to make their own highs or lows of the day so let's see.
Gold is looking very bearish. I cut my Dow short at BE because although I love this level for a short on the weekly, the smaller tfs I trade off just do not support a short atm, so I have to go with what I know. Hopefully I won't live to regret it.
  • #736
  • Mar 1, 2019 8:26am Mar 1, 2019 8:26am
Here's a long range look at Gold, and it certainly doesn't look to me as if investors are about to pile into it, no matter what Peter Schiff says. You see how the monthly 100sma is acting as a powerful resistance level, and with the bearish looking shooting star for February, it's looking more than anything like gold is going to continue to fall.

Those two arrows you see, one red down sloping, and the other green one, have been there since the end of 2016 when I called a bottom on Gold, so I got that part right.

Seems getting out of my Dow short was the right decision - common sense over ruled wishful thinking, the latter being a very dangerous emotion to rely on as a trader.

ps- Definitely not bragging as it's not my style, especially after the event, but I called the bottom on Gold in Dec 2015, then again a year later on the 76.4%, so my record is respectable. If I'm right about Gold this time, surely it means equities are moving to new highs?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #737
  • Mar 1, 2019 8:56am Mar 1, 2019 8:56am
SHort Dow 130...

Die Dow Die Dow... And that ain't German
  • #738
  • Mar 1, 2019 9:08am Mar 1, 2019 9:08am
Quoting PariCovek
SHort Dow 130... Die Dow Die Dow... And that ain't German
Die !

That's what I wanted. Exited partial for 50. Letting rest to run to new lows...
  • #739
  • Mar 1, 2019 9:10am Mar 1, 2019 9:10am
Quoting jakucha
Ideal scenario would be a risk off afternoon with indices down and gold up. NY like to make their own highs or lows of the day so let's see.
Something like this. Now where to exit, as always.

One day at a time Cat.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dowgold.png Size: 57 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #740
  • Mar 1, 2019 9:16am Mar 1, 2019 9:16am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} Something like this. Now where to exit, as always. One day at a time Cat. {image}
Out half dow.
Hidden in plain sight.
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