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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #661
  • Feb 25, 2019 7:56am Feb 25, 2019 7:56am
Quoting cat
{quote} Some music to help your trade move in the right direction! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lzM89fBpJM
Thanks but I've just been stopped out - maybe it just wasn't loud enough! I'll have to find some manic bagpipes from somewhere - that should do it.
  • #662
  • Feb 25, 2019 8:03am Feb 25, 2019 8:03am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Thanks but I've just been stopped out - maybe it just wasn't loud enough! I'll have to find some manic bagpipes from somewhere - that should do it.
It's been a day for taking profits and not letting it run for sure, but these levels and the pa are enticing for shorts, so no one would blame you for trying, but the momentum is still up, and we should get plenty of warning before it turns south for a goodly drop.
  • #663
  • Feb 25, 2019 8:14am Feb 25, 2019 8:14am
Quoting cat
{quote} It's been a day for taking profits and not letting it run for sure, but these levels and the pa are enticing for shorts, so no one would blame you for trying, but the momentum is still up, and we should get plenty of warning before it turns south for a goodly drop.
I certainly hope so - this steroid addled moggy/corporate buy-back junkie has overstayed its welcome.
  • #664
  • Feb 25, 2019 8:17am Feb 25, 2019 8:17am
Quoting tomase
{quote} I certainly hope so - this steroid addled moggy/corporate buy-back junkie has overstayed its welcome.
  • #665
  • Feb 25, 2019 2:17pm Feb 25, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you. {quote} I never discarded it. I said that market movements have little to do with it. {quote} Not quite relevant. The robots are programmed by humans, and are turned on and off by humans. Human psychology still applies. {quote} Not sure what you mean by micro movements. The millisecond timeframe is very efficient due to stat arb algos. But, yes, intraday swings are hugely inefficient. {quote} Do you believe, or is there proof? Where's the proof that asset prices are Markov processes? Can't be right... They are highly correlated,...
AR(1) process and Markov Chain is basically the same, seems you are confused in theory a little bit

Attached Image
- Markov property. Here you can see that conditional probability that random variable becomes j depends only to previous realization at time t-1.

AR(1) process means variable at time t has autocorrelation only with t-1 lag
  • #666
  • Edited 11:12pm Feb 25, 2019 10:55pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting dispersion
{quote} AR(1) process and Markov Chain is basically the same, seems you are confused in theory a little bit {image} - Markov property. Here you can see that conditional probability that random variable becomes j depends only to previous realization at time t-1. AR(1) process means variable at time t has autocorrelation only with t-1 lag
Where do you get your stuff from?

They are not at all the same.

The equation that you have copied and pasted describes the Markov property, i.e. that Markov processes are memoryless.

AR-processes are not memoryless, as they exhibit auto-correlation, and the modelling equation is different.

To put it briefly, memorylessness and auto-correlation are complementary phenomena - not identical, but mutually exclusive.

If you want to learn more about this, there's a good online book here - https://otexts.com/fpp2/ It uses the R statistical software package that you can download and use for free.
  • #667
  • Feb 26, 2019 12:17am Feb 26, 2019 12:17am
Quoting medici
{quote} Where do you get your stuff from? They are not at all the same. The equation that you have copied and pasted describes the Markov property, i.e. that Markov processes are memoryless. AR-processes are not memoryless, as they exhibit auto-correlation, and the modelling equation is different. To put it briefly, memorylessness and auto-correlation are complementary phenomena - not identical, but mutually exclusive. If you want to learn more about this, there's a good online book here - https://otexts.com/fpp2/ It uses the R statistical...
Nah bro,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Снимок экрана 2019-02-26 в 11.16.18 ДП.png Size: 117 KB


You really need to improve your theory

Under "basically the same" I meant both AR and Markov processes similarly describe asset price movements, because we talked in the context of asset prices, not strict theory
  • #668
  • Edited 1:20am Feb 26, 2019 12:21am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} Nah bro, {image} You really need to improve your theory
Indeed, under some conditions, but not generally, and not for asset prices. And your original quote stated that it was true 90% of the time for asset prices, which I still disagree with. Unless you do show the proof you claimed to exist.

Also, I should clarify that I am referring to the returns of the price series being auto-correlated, of course, rather than the values themselves. See https://quant.stackexchange.com/ques...urns-or-prices
  • #669
  • Feb 26, 2019 1:05am Feb 26, 2019 1:05am
Here's is one opinion. It does seem like it's time for a more significant move south.
Attached Image
  • #670
  • Feb 26, 2019 3:35am Feb 26, 2019 3:35am
Sorry guys, nothing to do with trading, but I only found out today that Mark Hollis, front man and lead singer/songwriter for my favourite band Talk Talk, died yesterday aged 64.

One of the greatest creative musical geniuses of his generation, and I'm gutted having listened to his music for the past 38 years.

A very sad cat today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hollis final.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #671
  • Feb 26, 2019 6:18am Feb 26, 2019 6:18am
Anyone trying to make head or tail of these markets today you're not the only one. However, I have them consolidating before another leg down.

Dax should struggle to get above 505ish, and if it does, then there's heavy resistance up around 520-540 where we have the trendline, R1, today's 76.4% fib, and yesterday's high.

The Dow looks like it may lift a bit to 065 or so, but then a rollover to lower levels looks to me like a distinct possibility.

IMHO.

ps..another leg down? Not so sure today, as there is still a great deal of support, but interestingly, it's Dow which looks most like rolling over to lower levels, whereas Dax looks very well supported around today's S1 pivot.
  • #672
  • Feb 26, 2019 6:29am Feb 26, 2019 6:29am
Quoting cat
Anyone trying to make head or tail of these markets today you're not the only one. However, I have them consolidating before another leg down. Dax should struggle to get above 505ish, and if it does, then there's heavy resistance up around 520 where we have the trendline, R1 and today's 76.4% fib. The Dow looks like it may lift a bit to 065 or so, but then a rollover to lower levels looks to me like a distinct possibility. IMHO.
Instead of the usual market maker driven swings, it seems to have been end of month flows in Dow both yesterday afternoon and this morning.

With the sunny and warm weather outside, I've concluded that there will be better days for trading
  • #673
  • Feb 26, 2019 6:40am Feb 26, 2019 6:40am
Quoting medici
{quote} Instead of the usual market maker driven swings, it seems to have been end of month flows in Dow both yesterday afternoon and this morning. With the sunny and warm weather outside, I've concluded that there will be better days for trading
Couldn't agree more. I've spent the day sitting outside in the warm sunshine with Betty my cat listening to Talk Talk tracks and remembering the life of one of Britain's greatest ever musical artists. The markets have not taken centre stage for once.
  • #674
  • Feb 26, 2019 6:50am Feb 26, 2019 6:50am
Short Dow 26010
  • #675
  • Feb 26, 2019 6:52am Feb 26, 2019 6:52am
This 540-50 level on Dax has got to be a big R level. Let's see what it does???
  • #676
  • Feb 26, 2019 7:04am Feb 26, 2019 7:04am
The Dow is pulling Dax up, but now Dow is within my potential R area, up to I would say 26,100 today, and that last aggressive push up on Dax looked suspiciously like a death throe move to me, so will it now hold??
  • #677
  • Feb 26, 2019 7:07am Feb 26, 2019 7:07am
Quoting PariCovek
Short Dow 26010
Switched to a Long, exit +45, short 075
  • #678
  • Feb 26, 2019 7:35am Feb 26, 2019 7:35am
Quoting cat
The Dow is pulling Dax up, but now Dow is within my potential R area, up to I would say 26,100 today, and that last aggressive push up on Dax looked suspiciously like a death throe move to me, so will it now hold??
I literally have no idea what is going on today, we had a huge move down and now weve had a massive move up.

This resistance level Im expecting to hold, so lets see what happens next.
  • #679
  • Feb 26, 2019 7:52am Feb 26, 2019 7:52am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Switched to a Long, exit +45, short 075
Out for 50..

Today was a prick on Dax, burnt a hole there.

I think Dow should capitulate over next few days.
  • #680
  • Feb 26, 2019 7:56am Feb 26, 2019 7:56am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Out for 50.. Today was a prick on Dax, burnt a hole there. I think Dow should capitulate over next few days.
Short again... partial exit already
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