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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #641
  • Feb 19, 2019 4:37am Feb 19, 2019 4:37am
Down in darkest Dorset looking after my elderly Mum for the week, with painfully slow internet, so won't be posting much. All your posts are greatly appreciated so keep the analysis coming guys!
  • #642
  • Feb 19, 2019 5:11am Feb 19, 2019 5:11am
Quoting cat
Down in darkest Dorset looking after my elderly Mum for the week, with painfully slow internet, so won't be posting much. All your posts are greatly appreciated so keep the analysis coming guys!
Hey old bean, been there and got the T shirt. Don't let it make you down, just slow it down and reduce trade size.
Enjoy the time with her. Listen to all those old stories. Drink lots of tea.

Paul
  • #643
  • Feb 20, 2019 6:37am Feb 20, 2019 6:37am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you for allowing my opinion to exist Yes, that's the conventional Efficient Market Hypothesis garble that the market mechanism is about valuation based on available information. Then there's Andy Lo's Adaptive Market Hypothesis, which tries to bring human psychology and behaviour into the picture. One step in the right direction, but still academic waffle in my view. I don't think the objective of market participants is to agree about fair value. People participate in the financial markets for the good old reasons of money and...
Succinct but elaborate I would say, thanks. Still I can't understand why you discard fair value as meaningless since profit opportunity exists if price, i.e. approximation of the fair value, deviated enough to bet on its convergence to the intrinsic value. Regarding adaptive model hypothesis that you mentioned well it works, when all participants are people. Would be true for 19-20 century but not for 21 where 70% or more players are robots. Sure there are trend-following robots which make profit based on some technical assumptions like breakout or trend channels, but well, their edge is speed. Market micro moves should have some inefficiencies, take the robots which drive the trend thanks to positive loop effect. We can't extrapolate success of technical analysis associated with speed to manual trading success using technical analysis. Personally I believe (what is backed by some statistical proofs) that 90% price follows Markov property, means only current price is important.
  • #644
  • Edited 9:02am Feb 20, 2019 8:36am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} Succinct but elaborate I would say, thanks.
Thank you.

Quote
Still I can't understand why you discard fair value as meaningless since profit opportunity exists if price, i.e. approximation of the fair value, deviated enough to bet on its convergence to the intrinsic value.

I never discarded it. I said that market movements have little to do with it.

Quote
Regarding adaptive model hypothesis that you mentioned well it works, when all participants are people. Would be true for 19-20 century but not for 21 where 70% or more players are robots.

Not quite relevant. The robots are programmed by humans, and are turned on and off by humans. Human psychology still applies.

Quote
Market micro moves should have some inefficiencies, take the robots which drive the trend thanks to positive loop effect.

Not sure what you mean by micro movements. The millisecond timeframe is very efficient due to stat arb algos. But, yes, intraday swings are hugely inefficient.

Quote
Personally I believe (what is backed by some statistical proofs) that 90% price follows Markov property, means only current price is important.

Do you believe, or is there proof? Where's the proof that asset prices are Markov processes? Can't be right... They are highly correlated, and are most often modelled with AR(1) processes.
  • #645
  • Feb 20, 2019 9:36am Feb 20, 2019 9:36am
I think the Dax30 has a date with the Daily 200sma... Next stop, let's see how quick it takes to get there.
  • #646
  • Feb 20, 2019 10:49am Feb 20, 2019 10:49am
Quoting PariCovek
I think the Dax30 has a date with the Daily 200sma... Next stop, let's see how quick it takes to get there.
11900 ish? You think it’ll get that high? I’m genuinely still expecting a big drop from around where it is now , 11450.
  • #647
  • Feb 21, 2019 2:23am Feb 21, 2019 2:23am
Dax is up on the trend line with plenty of room to drop 200 points or so on Super Thursday. Daily 200ema is not far above on today's R2 pivot at 540.

Dow to me is looking similarly poised for a fall from around 087 which is its R2 pivot today. a level it has already reached during the Asian session.
  • #648
  • Feb 22, 2019 2:41am Feb 22, 2019 2:41am
Looks like we may re-visit the trend line today on Dax, which now sits around the 11,500 level. Draghi this afternoon, so the price could potentially go alot higheras we are still in bullish mode with dips being bought back up.

Dow also looking like it could put in a strong performance today back up towards yesterday's highs.
  • #649
  • Feb 22, 2019 4:56am Feb 22, 2019 4:56am
Dax is on H1 diversion atm. Watch it!
  • #650
  • Feb 22, 2019 11:04am Feb 22, 2019 11:04am
And that Dax trend line held again.

I have a tightening of my moving averages on Dax, indicating possible exhaustion, so we may be in for some down time next week, looking perhaps like consolidation on Monday and selling on Tuesday, especially if Dow can hold at this level, and not break conclusively above 26,100-200ish. It'll be clearer on Monday morning.
  • #651
  • Feb 22, 2019 12:33pm Feb 22, 2019 12:33pm
Mr Cat, I learn a lot from your analyses.
  • #652
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:43pm Feb 22, 2019 3:43pm
Quoting Sc11
Mr Cat, I learn a lot from your analyses.
Thank you Sc11, I'm very happy to hear it. Makes posting worthwhile.
  • #653
  • Feb 25, 2019 7:06am Feb 25, 2019 7:06am
Quoting cat
And that Dax trend line held again. I have a tightening of my moving averages on Dax, indicating possible exhaustion, so we may be in for some down time next week, looking perhaps like consolidation on Monday and selling on Tuesday, especially if Dow can hold at this level, and not break conclusively above 26,100-200ish. It'll be clearer on Monday morning.
So far, this seems to be what is playing out. Big moves in the Asian markets overnight in expectation of the US/China trade deal, so we'll have to see what the NY session brings. Dax has been ranging so far today, so not a day for holding onto trades too long, and as it is pushing up again as I type, I have resistance around 518/20 now. As things stand right now, I have not got Dax making new intra-day highs today, but we'll see as all depends on the US session and whether it follows on from the bullish Asian markets.
  • #654
  • Feb 25, 2019 7:32am Feb 25, 2019 7:32am
76.4% from today's high on Dax is at 526, so I reckon if anything is going to stop the price making new intraday highs today, it is this.
  • #655
  • Feb 25, 2019 7:57am Feb 25, 2019 7:57am
i have 38.2 Fibo (year) at 540 so it can be strong resist around this zone
  • #656
  • Feb 25, 2019 8:45am Feb 25, 2019 8:45am
Dax is now up on its Daily 200ema at 550, and Dow is clear to run with no real resistance as such, but these levels are hyper extended in my opinion so the price can snap back on a dime up here.
  • #657
  • Feb 25, 2019 9:16am Feb 25, 2019 9:16am
Hi guys, sorry I've been quiet, chest infection all week which has been horrendous.

So the Dax has kept on going, to my surprise. It's now in the same zone it sold from in October, November and December, on NY open, it got to 550, did not like it at all and dropped down to 502 before recovering to around 521 at time of typing.

All markets have had a bullish open and a bit of a run cause of the US/China trade deal but I think we will have to see some sort of selling from this point as they are beyond hyper extended, and the impending world wide recession hasn't just disappeared, with just over an hour to go on the European session let's see what this brings.

I for one am waiting for the Dax to give me clear indication of selling and then will be shorting it till the cows come home!
  • #658
  • Feb 25, 2019 9:37am Feb 25, 2019 9:37am
The Dow has pulled back off a fifth touch on this rising wedge and this wave count - for what it's worth, any comments more than welcome - prompted me to pull the trigger on a short at 26222.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW 1.PNG Size: 52 KB
  • #659
  • Feb 25, 2019 9:46am Feb 25, 2019 9:46am
Quoting tomase
The Dow has pulled back off a fifth touch on this rising wedge and this wave count - for what it's worth, any comments more than welcome - prompted me to pull the trigger on a short at 26222. {image}
I've seen worse entries!

Nice shooting star on H1, and these levels are tippy toppy for sure, so good luck!
  • #660
  • Feb 25, 2019 9:51am Feb 25, 2019 9:51am
Quoting tomase
The Dow has pulled back off a fifth touch on this rising wedge and this wave count - for what it's worth, any comments more than welcome - prompted me to pull the trigger on a short at 26222. {image}
Some music to help your trade move in the right direction!

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