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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #501
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:23pm Feb 8, 2019 4:23pm
Nice rally towards the end of the day in US equities, and the Nasdaq and S&P actually finished the day in the green.

I always keep my eye on a 90m chart as I use X3 spacing, so 10m, 30m, 90m, etc which means that my indicators don't overlap, and it is the 90m 200ema which sent the Dow back up this evening, at least for me it was.

The attached chart marks the fibs which may come in as resistance on Monday, with the 50% being the first one to watch as it sits on top of the 100sma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wall Street 7th.png Size: 56 KB
  • #502
  • Feb 9, 2019 7:08am Feb 9, 2019 7:08am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Short Dow 25306 Long Dow 24895 Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
Well done
  • #503
  • Edited 9:30am Feb 9, 2019 7:18am | Edited 9:30am
The rally that started on Boxing Day exhibits the typical behaviour of market cycles (again, see Tony Plummer's book).

The significant highs came as predicted at 1/6, 1/2, and 5/6 of the time of the full cycle, confirming that the Wednesday high was indeed the high of rally which will now suffer a correction before the cycle ends early next week

To see what is in store after that, one may apply a similar analysis to the cycle that started on the 3rd of October. Significant lows appeared 1/6 and 1/2 into the cycle, and the 7th wave completing the pattern should reach a significant low towards the end of February, which in its turn will go through a correction in March before the cycle ends.

Finally, applying the same kind of analysis to the rally that started March 2009, we're seeing that the high of the rally is likely in place, and that it will take a couple of years to complete the correction, before a new cycle can begin.

The overlay in all charts is a Gann Square - introduced by W D Gann to study symmetries in time and price.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann Square January 2019.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann Square 2 2019.png Size: 195 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-02-09 at 13.34.21.png Size: 218 KB
  • #504
  • Feb 9, 2019 7:50am Feb 9, 2019 7:50am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Short Dow 25306 Long Dow 24895 Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
Excellent...625 pips if you followed both through to the end...not a bad day's work!
  • #505
  • Edited 12:27pm Feb 9, 2019 10:58am | Edited 12:27pm
Thanks for the above medici and cat. Both trades still live and at the moment I'm playing the long as a hedge with a view to taking it off as close as possible to the top of the rally (if that is what this current pa is) and obviously leaving the short on for a much greater drop on the Dow. It'll be interesting to see what happens early next week. And the Tony Plummer book arrived this morning!
  • #506
  • Feb 11, 2019 2:37am Feb 11, 2019 2:37am
GM - The Dow perkier than usual for a Monday morning. SMA20 on the hourly was strong support overnight, and now SMA50 broken through without effort. 8.18 was a good time to join the ride.

Will SMA100 hold, or will the upper Bollinger 50 be the target? Or will there be surprises on the way? TWT

My guess is that it will keep rolling until NYSE open, when selling will commence.
  • #507
  • Feb 11, 2019 2:55am Feb 11, 2019 2:55am
GM Dow now ~the 50% retrace of the drop from last Wednesday's high with its 61.8 % some 50 pts higher. Numerous minor "levels" in these areas too, but looks like the BRN at 25,200 will be hit next...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #508
  • Feb 11, 2019 2:56am Feb 11, 2019 2:56am
Quoting Islander
GM Dow now ~the 50% retrace of the drop from last Wednesday's high with its 61.8 % some 50 pts higher. Numerous minor "levels" in these areas too, but looks like the BRN at 25,200 will be hit next...
Yup, here's my target:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-02-11 at 08.53.31.png Size: 111 KB
  • #509
  • Feb 11, 2019 3:47am Feb 11, 2019 3:47am
G'mornin all!

What a nice little move to start the week. Dow reached its 61.8% ( chart above posted Friday ) & Dax its 30m 100sma.

I don't see new intra-day lows today, so I would say now that these levels may be as high as we go this morning, so perhaps dropping back a bit for another run north later.
  • #510
  • Feb 11, 2019 4:14am Feb 11, 2019 4:14am
Quoting cat
G'mornin all! What a nice little move to start the week. Dow reached its 61.8% ( chart above posted Friday ) & Dax its 30m 100sma. I don't see new intra-day lows today, so I would say now that these levels may be as high as we go this morning, so perhaps dropping back a bit for another run north later.
Agreed, it could now be sideways until NYSE open. I've banked, and am waiting for possible reload before lunch. Looking less likely by the minute...
  • #511
  • Feb 11, 2019 4:20am Feb 11, 2019 4:20am
Quoting medici
{quote} Agreed, it could now be sideways until NYSE open. I've banked, and am waiting for possible reload before lunch. Looking less likely by the minute...
I don't think anyone would send you to the naughty corner for banking there.
  • #512
  • Feb 11, 2019 4:32am Feb 11, 2019 4:32am
Quoting cat
{quote} I don't think anyone would send you to the naughty corner for banking there.
Thank you Yes, 120+ points is a good start to the day

Now break from the screens until NYSE open.
  • #513
  • Feb 11, 2019 4:47am Feb 11, 2019 4:47am
Price action today reminds me of Thursday 24th of January. Same strong push up, then sideways consolidation. Today the mood is more bearish, but the bears have an upward sloping SMA200 on the hourly to contend with. The afternoon will be interesting.
  • #514
  • Feb 11, 2019 5:24am Feb 11, 2019 5:24am
Quoting medici
Price action today reminds me of Thursday 24th of January. Same strong push up, then sideways consolidation. Today the mood is more bearish, but the bears have an upward sloping SMA200 on the hourly to contend with. The afternoon will be interesting.
bearish mood on which assets? Are you talking about dollar, or stocks? I think the expectations mount that Trump or White House deliver some negative surprise about tariffs, like.. next round of the fight
  • #515
  • Feb 11, 2019 5:28am Feb 11, 2019 5:28am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} bearish mood on which assets? Are you talking about dollar, or stocks? I think the expectations mount that Trump or White House deliver some negative surprise about tariffs, like.. next round of the fight
I was referring to the Dow Jones Index. And my humble opinion is that news matters not much at all.
  • #516
  • Feb 11, 2019 10:00am Feb 11, 2019 10:00am
Dow Cash on my M5 chart shows that impressive rally from the London Open up to the confluence of levels around 25,250 where that HV (in relation to the current activity) Wide Ranged shooting star indicated some profit taking by the SM.

The retrace to the overnight open gave another weaker rally back to the same area again in a HV WR shooting star (AKA a reverse Hammer)

The Open of the NYSE Cash was sold back down to the area of the LO when a WR HV Hammer back into the conjestion area from 5 - 7 days ago where price has held. Two nice moves for European Traders
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: feb11 dow m5 1545.png Size: 37 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #517
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:27am Feb 12, 2019 1:27am
Both Dax and Dow at critical potential resistance levels here, Dax at its H1100sma/200ema/R2 pivot, and Dow up on yesterday's resistance which was the 30m 200sma. Chances of falling back pretty high, so we'll see what the London boys do with them.
  • #518
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:29am Feb 12, 2019 1:29am
Quoting cat
Both Dax and Dow at critical potential resistance levels here, Dax at its H1100sma/200ema/R2 pivot, and Dow up on yesterday's resistance which was the 30m 200sma. Chances of falling back pretty high, so we'll see what the London boys do with them.
Can see those, but I reckon she may want to 2H 200sma at 160ish.
  • #519
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:34am Feb 12, 2019 1:34am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Can see those, but I reckon she may want to 2H 200sma at 160ish.
Pushing up again Dax, so may want higher. R3 is a level to watch closely if it gets there, as it's my H3 100sma and the 61.8% fib retrace from the 5th Feb high.
  • #520
  • Feb 12, 2019 1:49am Feb 12, 2019 1:49am
GM - For the Dow SMA6000@1m = SMA200@30m = SMA100@1h has been support during the Frankfurt hour,, with Camarilla H3 as resistance. One of those will break, and it looks like the latter at the moment.
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