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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #481
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:48am Feb 8, 2019 2:48am
Quoting medici
GM - looking at the Dow, the recent down-wave distinguished itself from the previous pullbacks by having about twice the volume per point moved, indicating a reversal rather than pullback in an uptrend. There should be a dead cat bounce from here, but we may have to wait for the Americans for that. After that the downside potential is sizeable.... {image}

GM M - no surprise that the Dow shows the same activity, volume-wise, as Dax - or vice versa!

Unlike Dax, where the hourly 200 sma has rolled over with price ~ 200 pts lower, Dow has held just above it still rising hrly 200 sma so how far it retraces will be significant IMO
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #482
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:52am Feb 8, 2019 2:52am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM M - no surprise that the Dow shows the same activity, volume-wise, as Dax - or vice versa! Unlike Dax, where the hourly 200 sma has rolled over with price ~ 200 pts lower, Dow has held just above it still rising hrly 200 sma so how far it retraces will be significant IMO
GM Cap'm - exactly Will it stop at SMA50 on the hourly, or will the highs be taken out? It's getting interesting
  • #483
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:06am Feb 8, 2019 3:06am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM - Cat - nice call yesterday I have an hourly price projection to the 10, 720 area cash. My 16:00 GMT hourly candle had the highest volume since January 3rd, suggesting profit taking which is confirmed by the 16:60 & :35 M5 volumes, all in an area of prior activity. Waitimg for a pull back to re-load
Few days are as clear to me as yesterday was on the Dax, it was just a question of waiting for an entry opportunity. Today not so clear, though I think we will see lower levels. Just don't know how far it will pullback, but waiting, poised!
  • #484
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:10am Feb 8, 2019 3:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} Few days are as clear to me as yesterday was on the Dax, it was just a question of waiting for an entry opportunity. Today not so clear, though I think we will see lower levels. Just don't know how far it will pullback, but waiting, poised!

Somehow, I don't think so. I believe the DJI will end the day up. Shorts for Monday, methinks, but I may be wrong.
  • #485
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:23am Feb 8, 2019 3:23am
So far it's been L3 to L1. Now for a little pause, and then takeoff at 10am?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-02-08 at 09.19.26.png Size: 86 KB
  • #486
  • Feb 8, 2019 8:48am Feb 8, 2019 8:48am
Right I've got a level of potential support right here on 10, 920 on Dax which may hold. If not, then both Dow and Dax could fall quite a lot lower today.
  • #487
  • Feb 8, 2019 9:18am Feb 8, 2019 9:18am
S1 on Dax @ 895, just breached, is the last chance saloon I think, and Dow looks like it could fall at least another 150 pips from here. Critical levels on this down leg for today.
  • #488
  • Feb 8, 2019 9:24am Feb 8, 2019 9:24am
Quoting cat
S1 on Dax @ 895, just breached, is the last chance saloon I think, and Dow looks like it could fall at least another 150 pips from here. Critical levels on this down leg for today.
Am short Dax 028, and Dow at 25302... just leaving them lol
  • #489
  • Feb 8, 2019 9:47am Feb 8, 2019 9:47am
The London and Frankfurt boys are all in the pubs by now on a Friday afternoon, so it's up to the Yanks to take this lower or pull it back up. If they take the former option, it could be carnage with 5 hours left to trade!
  • #490
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:10am Feb 8, 2019 10:10am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Am short Dax 028, and Dow at 25302... just leaving them lol
Excellent entries!
  • #491
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:35am Feb 8, 2019 10:35am
Quoting cat
{quote} Excellent entries!
Shorting into Oblivion! Come on Trump drop some nukes... lol, that might help! Bad joke. Although, not without his realm.

US and Russia back into the Arm's race.... heck yeah, Mad Max the movie will be the reality!
  • #492
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:38am Feb 8, 2019 10:38am
Quoting cat
{quote} Often like this prior to a really big move. I don't think we are going to see anything today now, but tomorrow is ' Super Thursday ', so be ready is all I would say, and if it comes, then my money is to the downside.
Cat what did you mean by but tomorrow is super Super Thursday quote ?
  • #493
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:49am Feb 8, 2019 10:49am
Quoting don555
{quote} Cat what did you mean by but tomorrow is super Super Thursday quote ?
Usually, Thursday's can start a reversal move, or just a big move in general... I think, from prior experience's.
  • #494
  • Feb 8, 2019 11:18am Feb 8, 2019 11:18am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Am short Dax 028, and Dow at 25302... just leaving them lol
Short Dow 25306
Long Dow 24895

Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
  • #495
  • Feb 8, 2019 11:25am Feb 8, 2019 11:25am
Quoting don555
{quote} Cat what did you mean by but tomorrow is super Super Thursday quote ?
Thursday is usually a day for big moves in the market, don't ask me why, just is, hence the ' Super Thursday ' tag.
  • #496
  • Feb 8, 2019 11:55am Feb 8, 2019 11:55am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Short Dow 25306 Long Dow 24895 Not taking any chance on giving 400 pips back to the market!
Yeah, 3h 100ema... could bounce up here... i'll be patient.
  • #497
  • Feb 8, 2019 12:14pm Feb 8, 2019 12:14pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yeah, 3h 100ema... could bounce up here... i'll be patient.
I think there's an ABC rally beginning to form on the Dow after this small scale 5 wave down move from Wednesday. I'd be surprised if it got much higher than 25200 (the 61.8 fib area) but as you know with the Dow, it could storm all the way back up to the 76.4 where my short is parked.
  • #498
  • Feb 8, 2019 12:17pm Feb 8, 2019 12:17pm
On the Dax during the past 4 weeks there has been a common technical move which shows up perfectly on the 2 week chart, but which can be observed on any time frame. I have drawn attention to this pattern many times on my threads - a break of the 100sma, then support found on either the 200ema or sma, a rally back up to the 100sma, not alkways right up to it, but close, followed by the next leg down. To see how much further the price may fall, you have to go up bigger time frames beginning with X2, so here, the monthly, to see where the next level of support may come in if the previous low is broken, and here it will be the 100sma which sits on my chart at 9,640. This should be the next target should the 2 weekly 200ema, and sma a bit lower down @ 9,800 get broken. If you want to see where the resistance was from which the Dax has fallen the last couple of days, go to the weekly chart, and you'll see it was plum underneath the 200ema. If the price is not going to reach the December low, then we need to put the fibs on, and the likeliest one for me is the 61.8% @ 10,660, with the 76.4% below that if the 61.8% cannot hold it.

All this is based upon past observation and pattern repetition, so does not of course mean that it will play out this way, but one should always work out in advance what the most likely scenario may be if one wants to stay one step ahead of the market, because it is of little use if one is always one step behind it.
  • #499
  • Feb 8, 2019 12:34pm Feb 8, 2019 12:34pm
Quoting cat
On the Dax during the past 4 weeks there has been a common technical move which shows up perfectly on the 2 week chart, but which can be observed on any time frame. I have drawn attention to this pattern many times on my threads - a break of the 100sma, then support found on either the 200ema or sma, a rally back up to the 100sma, not alkways right up to it, but close, followed by the next leg down. To see how much further the price may fall, you have to go up bigger time frames beginning with X2, so here, the monthly, to see where the next level...
I love the Plum's... But they made a mess of my decking the last 2 weeks lol!
  • #500
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:05pm Feb 8, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I love the Plum's... But they made a mess of my decking the last 2 weeks lol!
Eat them...great cure for constipation!
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